Commentary: We are shifting the crypto market to a Confirmed Uptrend after GBTC recorded a follow-through day on April 22. GBTC is up 10% this week and is retaking key moving averages, including the 50- and 100-DMA. Next resistance is at its December 2024 high of $86.11. We recommend a gradual approach to adding risk in the crypto ecosystem. MSTR and HOOD screen the best in the crypto ecosystem
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.5% last week after bouncing off support at the 200-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
Mexico’s main benchmark rose 3% last week and retook support at the 200-DMA and 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
Last week, we added Cury Construtora (CCE.BR; CURY3 BZ) to the Focus List after the stock broke out of a consolidation base. The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region is three.
Stocks of interest: Direccional (DIR.BR; DIRR3 BZ), Cyrela (3CY.BR; CYRE3 BZ), Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ), Totvs (TOT.BR; TOTS3 BZ), Ambev (AVS.BR; ABEV3 BZ) and Coca-Cola Femsa (KFBL.MX; KOFUBL MM)
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined slightly (69bps) last week after fading off resistance at the declining 21-DMA ($89).
The IGV is vulnerable to additional downside pressure with the next level of support near early April lows ($75). Overall, quantitative
metrics remain poor with RS line near year-to-date lows and Acc/Dist Rating of E. Only a few ideas are consolidating above key
moving averages including CRWD, TTAN, and TTWO. However, most software constituents are under distribution and trading below
their 200-DMA. We recommend investors take a cautious approach and trim exposure should ideas break below key support levels.
Commentary: GBTC is up 0.5% this week and is holding above support at the 200-DMA. It has near-term resistance at its 50-DMA ($68.88;
3% away). Following the same trend as the Nasdaq, the crypto market remains in a Rally Attempt. We remain cautious on crypto and on
stocks within the crypto ecosystem until GBTC records a follow-through day.
Key Points:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Software (IGV): The software benchmark jumped ~7% last week and regained its 10-DMA ($86) with the next level of resistance at
its declining 21-DMA ($89). The IGV is 21% off highs with poor quantitative metrics, including an Up/Down Volume ratio below 1 and
an Acc/Dist Rating of E. Most ideas are well below key levels of resistance with only a few ideas -TTAN, ULS, PAYC, TTWO- setting
up and trading above their respective 50-DMA. We recommend investors take a cautious approach and look for constituents to regain
and hold above resistance for an incremental sign of improvement.
Commentary: GBTC is in a Rally Attempt. GBTC is down 5.3% this week and is currently testing support at the 200-DMA ($63.00). It has
near-term resistance at its 21-DMA ($66.05; 5% away). We remain cautious on the crypto market and on stocks within the crypto ecosystem
until GBTC records a Follow Through Day.
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined ~9.5 last week on above average volume. The IGV is 27% off highs. It has poor
quantitative metrics, including a declining RS line, an RS Rating of 42, and an Acc/Dist Rating of E. The next level of support is near $75,
which coincides with the 2024 lows. All software constituents are under distribution, with ~90% of ideas trading below their 200-DMA. We
recommend investors take a cautious approach and trim exposure should ideas break below their key support levels.
Commentary: Bitcoin remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Last week, Bitcoin was up 1.8%, whereas GBTC was down 2.2%. Despite global
markets tumbling on tariffs news, Bitcoin has remained resilient. The next level of support for GBTC is at the 200-DMA ($62.8), and the next
level of resistance is at its 50-DMA ($72).
