Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined ~1.6% after facing resistance at its 50- and 100-DMA ($110). The IGV is 8% off its all
time high and remains in a 12-week consolidation. Quantitative metrics remain weak, with Up/Down Volume ratio below 1 and a worst
possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. Weak earnings reaction from ORCL overshadowed a number of stocks attempting to recover from lows,
including CTSH, JKHY, FICO, MA, and V. Four of the 12 software-related industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over
the last four weeks, with Software-Spec Enterprise (#51, APP) showing the sharpest improvement, followed by Credit Card/Payment
Processors (#159, MA) and Software-Financial (#156, FICO). We recommend a cautious approach, reducing exposure as ideas break
below or fail to regain key levels of support.
Author: Romeo Alvarez
Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London.
Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch.
Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We remain cautious in the crypto space as GBTC continues to trade below the 200-DMA. GBTC is up over 2% so far
this week but remains 28% off highs. It has a weak technical profile, with an RS Rating of 20 and worst possible Acc/Dist Rating of E.
Meanwhile, ETHE is up 6% so far this week and has reclaimed its 200-DMA. The overall crypto market remains in a Downtrend.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 1.1% last week. The index was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend investors selectively add risk in Brazilian equities.
Mexico’s main benchmark declined 0.3% last week. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through-day, before adding risk in Mexican equities
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark bounced ~5% from oversold levels on average volume. The IGV regained its 200-DMA but faces
resistance at the converging 50- and 100-DMA (~$111) as it remains in a base. Quantitative metrics remain weak, with Up/Down Volume
ratio below 1 and a negative Acc/Dist Rating. The bounce was led by oversold cloud infrastructure stocks (ORCL and CRWV) and SaaS
laggards (CRM and ADBE). Only a few select ideas, including APP, FROG, IBM, MDB, and PLTR, show good/improving accumulation at
or near pivot, while RBRK and IOT gapped up on earnings and are worth monitoring. ORCL earnings this week will be a key catalyst to
monitor. Of the 12 industry groups we track, only Computer Software-Financial (#147) and Computer Software-Design (#163) have shown
improvement in Group Rank over the past four weeks. We recommend a cautious approach, reducing exposure as ideas break below or
fail to regain key levels of support.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: The crypto market remains in a Downtrend. We remain cautious in the crypto space as GBTC continues to trade below its key moving averages, including the 200-DMA. It is up 1.9% so far this week but remains 27% off highs. Next level of support is at its November low ($64.41). GBTC has a weak technical profile, with an RS Rating of 22 and worst possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. Meanwhile, ETHE is up 3% this week and has reclaimed its 200-DMA. Ethereum is closer to being upgraded to Uptrend.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index rallied 2.8% last week and hit a new all-time high. Support is along its 21-DMA (-3%). The index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three distribution days. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark gained 2.8% last week and is only 1% off highs. The index reclaimed its 50- and 21-DMAs last week. The index was shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark gained 3% on below average volume last week and remains below all its key moving averages.
The IGV is 12% off its all-time high, with resistance along its 200-DMA ($105; +1%). Quantitative metrics are weak, with Up/Down Volume
ratio below 1 and a negative Acc/Dist Rating. The majority of software constituents are attempting to bounce and likely due for consolidation
after the IGV declined ~14% in November. Key earnings to monitor this week include CRWD, MDB, and SNOW, all of which are
consolidating slightly below the pivot range. We recommend a cautious approach, reducing exposure as ideas break below or fail to regain
key levels of support.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Cryptocurrency – Technical Overview
Commentary: We remain cautious in the crypto space as GBTC continues to trade below its 200-DMA. It is up 6% so far this week but remains 29% off its highs. Support levels: the recent low of $64.41, followed by the April low at $59.79. GBTC has a weak technical profile, with an RS Rating of 21 and the lowest possible A/D Rating of E. Meanwhile, ETHE is up 11% so far this week and is attempting to retake its 200-DMA. We will change our cautious stance once both GBTC and ETHE retake their respective 200-DMA.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index retraced 1.9% last week and is 2% off highs. The index added three distribution days last week. It remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three distribution days. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark declined 0.7% last week and breached its 50-DMA. The index was downgraded to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure, following the breach of its 50-DMA and an elevated distribution day count. We recommend investors avoid adding risk in Mexican equities.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined 6% last week and breached support at the 200-DMA ($105) on above average volume. It
is 14% off its all-time high and trading below all its key moving averages. Next support is near $96. Quantitative metrics are weak, with
Up/Down Volume ratio below 1 and the lowest possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. The decline was broad-based across the IGV constituents and
led by names such as DDOG, MSFT, ORCL, PANW, and PLTR. We recommend a cautious approach and suggest reducing exposure as
ideas break below or fail to regain key levels of support.
