Author: Romeo Alvarez

Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London. Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch. Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa declined 1.8% last week and breached support at the 200-DMA. The index was shifted to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s benchmark index declined 0.4% last week. It broke below the 200-DMA yesterday after Claudia Sheinbaum was elected as the country’s next President. Mexico was shifted to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Mexican equities.
  • The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region remains at six.
  • Stocks of interest: Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM), Gruma (GRM.MX; GRUMAB:MM), Porto Seguro (PSO.BR; PSSA3:BZ) and Marfrig (MFA.BR; MRFG3:BZ). Additional ideas are listed on page 3.

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark gapped down below its 200-DMA ($78) after CRM issued a weak earnings outlook. Quantitative metrics have deteriorated, with the RS line turning sharply lower and Acc/Dist Rating declining to -14 from -2 two weeks ago. Multiple stocks followed CRM and gapped lower post earning, including MDB, NTNX, VEEV, and S. Other key constituents breaking below their 200-DMA include DDOG, INTU, and NOW. Most of these stocks will need several weeks if not at least a quarter in order to repair the technical damage. We recommend a cautious approach on the IGV constituents and allow stocks to consolidate.
Reduce exposure on stocks breaking below key support levels.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa declined 3% last week and broke below support at the 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s benchmark index declined 3.8% last week and broke below support at the 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Mexican equities.
  • Last week, we removed Grupo Banorte (GTB.MX; GFNORTEO:MM) from the Focus List, bringing the total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region down to six. Nu Holdings (ADR: NU, NH3.BR; ROXO35:BZ) is actionable.
  • Stocks of interest: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (AUS.MX; ASURB:MM), Grupo Mexico (GME.MX; GMEXICOB:MM), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM), Caixa Seguridade (CS6.BR; CXSE3:BZ), Smu (SM.CL; SMU:CI), and Cencosud (CNS.CL; CENCOSUD:CI). Additional ideas are listed on page 3.

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark pulled back ~1.6% and is testing support at its 50-DMA ($82). To become more constructive, the IGV needs to break above resistance at ~85. Quantitative metrics have improved but are still mixed with an Up/Down Volume ratio above 1 and Acc/Dist Rating improving to -5 from -21 four weeks ago. Weakness was primarily from INTU and WDAY, which both gapped late last week post earnings. Other constituents with a weak technical profile include MDB, NET, SHOP, SNOW, and TEAM. Only a select few ideas are at or near their pivot including CRWD, FICO, GWRE, MSFT, MNDY, NTNX, and SNPS. Only
one software group, Database (#6), is ranked in the top 50 of the O’Neil 197, all other software groups are ranked outside the top 50 including six ranked outside the top 100. We recommend a selective approach to allow the IGV and the majority of its constituents to continue to consolidate.

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa gained 0.4% last week and is trading above the 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s benchmark index declined 0.2% last week. It remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Mexican equities.
  • Last week, we added Inter (IP9.BR; INBR32:BZ) and removed Smartfit (SED.BR; SMFT3:BZ) from the Focus List, maintaining the total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region at seven. Inter and Mercadolibre (MELI) are actionable.
  • Stocks of interest: Banco Pan (PMP.BR; BPAN4:BZ), Porto Seguro (PSO.BR; PSSA3:BZ), Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q*:MM) and Grupo Mexico (GME.MX; GMEXICOB:MM).

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark has regained its 50-DMA ($83) and is forming the right side of a stage-two 14-week flat base with pivot at $88.8. Quantitative metrics have improved, with an Up/Down Volume ratio above 1 and an Acc/Dist Rating improving to -2 from -24 four weeks ago. A number of leading constituents including CRWD, FICO, GWRE, and NTNX are at or near their pivot while MSFT, MNDY, NOW, and others are rapidly forming the right side of bases. Five of the 11 software groups in the O’Neil 197, have improved in Group Rank over the last four weeks with Medical (#132) and Security (#65) showing the sharpest
improvement. IGV has retaken all its moving averages recently on above average volume and is 6% away from pivot. We recommend adding ideas that are either breaking out or forming the right side of a base with good technical ratings.

TMT Conference – Select Ideas

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this report:

 

  • Select Ideas are displaying good or poor O’Neil ratings and ranking along with technical strength or weakness.
  • Included are 20 annotated charts. Stocks include:
    • GDDY
    • RNG
    • CFLT
    • CDNS
    • ASML
    • WDC
    • FN
    • MU
    • ANET
    • RDDT
    • NXST
    • NYT
    • CARG
    • TMUS
    • TWLO
    • SYNA
    • WOLF
    • LITE
    • IPG
    • CMCSA

LATAM Weekly Summary

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa declined 0.7% last week. It is testing support at the 50-DMA (127K) and remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Brazilian equities.
  • Mexico’s main benchmark was up 1.0% last week. It remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day to add risk in Mexican equities.
  • We added MercadoLibre (MELI) to our LATAM Focus List last week, taking the total number of Focus List names to seven.
  • Stocks of interest: Embraer (EA3.BR; EMBR3:BZ), GPS Part. (GPE.BR; GGPS3:BZ), Banco Pan (PMP.BR; BPAN4:BZ), Gruma (GRM.MX; GRUMAB:MM) and Smu (SM.CL; SMU:CI).

O’Neil TMT Weekly

Posted on by Romeo Alvarez

Software (IGV): The software benchmark has regained its 21-DMA ($80) on low volume but continued to consolidate below
resistance at its 50- and 100-DMA ($83). Quantitative metrics remain weak: Acc/Dist Rating of D. RS line has steadily declined off
February highs. Select large-cap leaders, including MSFT, CRWD, NOW, and SNPS, are at/approaching the 50-DMA resistance,
while FICO and NTNX are at/near their respective pivot. Eight of the 11 software groups in the O’Neil 197 groups witnessed a decline
in Group Rank over the last four weeks. Enterprise (#115) and Edu/Media (#112) had the sharpest decline. Gaming (#185) and
Desktop Software (#192) are ranked the worst. We recommend a risk-off approach to the IGV and its constituents as the index
continues to trade sideways, below its 50- and 100-DMA. Trim weak ideas that are breaching logical levels of support with declining
relative strength.