Key points:
• Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.8% last week. It has immediate resistance at the 200-
DMA and is trading 9% off highs. The index is in a Rally Attempt. We recommend that
investors avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
• Mexico’s main benchmark rose 1% last week and is trading 9% off highs. The index
remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. We recommend that investors selectively add
risk in Mexican equities.
• The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at two.
• Stocks of interest: BB Seguridade (BBS.BR; BBSE3 BZ), Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ),
Industrias Penoles (PA2.MX; PENOLES MM), Gruma (GRM.MX; GRUMAB MM), Banco
Santander Chile (SAT.CL; BSAN CI), and Banco De Chile (CLE.CL; CHILE CI). Additional
ideas are highlighted on page 3.
Author: Romeo Alvarez
Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London.
Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch.
Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark fell ~4% and declined for the third consecutive week. The IGV is 16% off highs and testing
its 200-DMA ($93). Its quantitative metrics have declined over the last few weeks: RS line has turned lower along with an Acc/Dist
Rating of E. Only a few constituents including IBM, JKHY, VEEV, and ZS are either setting up or in the actionable range. All 12
software-related industry groups are under distribution. We advise a cautious approach and trimming exposure should ideas break
below key support levels.
TMT Conference – Select Ideas
Key points from this report:
- The following select ideas are showing near-term relative strength while displaying good O’Neil Fundamental Ratings and Rankings: RDDT, CHTR, VZ, T, and NXST.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We remain cautious on Bitcoin, given that GBTC is trading below support at its 50- and 100-DMA and is more than
18% off highs. We shifted GBTC status to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend as the index held above its February 28 low for three
days and it is up 6% this week. We will wait for a follow-through day before shifting Bitcoin to a Confirmed Uptrend. Support
level: 200-DMA ($62.31; -13% lower).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index lost 3.4% last week and breached support at its 50-DMA. The index was shifted to a Downtrend from a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend investors avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark fell 2.6% last week and is testing support at its 200-DMA. The index was shifted to an Uptrend under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend clients selectively add risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at two. MELI is pulling back to its 21-DMA after breaking out of a double-bottom base.
- Stocks of interest: Qualitas (QCC.MX; Q* MM), Alfa (AFA.MX; ALFAA MM), Falabella Saci (FAL.CL; FALAB CI), Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CVZ.CL; CCU CI) and Banco De Chile (CLE.CL; CHILE CI). Additional ideas are highlighted in page 3.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark fell ~3% last week and breached its 100-DMA ($100), the next level of support at its 200-
DMA ($93). Its quantitative metrics have declined over the last few weeks: Up/Down Volume ratio remains below 1 and Acc/Dist
Rating continues to be negative. The last two weeks of heavy distribution has significantly reduced the number of actionable ideas as
most constituents have pulled back into bases. Only a few constituents are setting up or in the actionable range including NTNX,
MDNY, and TEAM. Despite the selling pressure, 5 of 12 software related groups remain ranked in the top 30 of the O’Neil 197
including Edu/Media (#1), Specialty Enterprise (#11), Medical (#19), Cybersecurity (#27), and Enterprise (#30). We advise a cautious
approach and trimming exposure should ideas break below key support levels.
TMT Conference
Key points from this report:
- The following select ideas are showing near term relative strength while displaying good O’Neil Fundamental ratings and rankings: TYL, IBM, HUBS, CRWD, ADI, KLAC, TXN, WBD, T, RDDT, DIS, META, NFLX, TMUS.
- The following select ideas are showing near term technical weakness with poor O’Neil Ratings and Rankings: INFA, AKAM, MSI, LRCX, CMCSA, OMC, IPG.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We remain cautious on Bitcoin given that GBTC is trading below its 50- and 100-DMA and is over 20% off highs. We
shifted GBTC status to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure as the index breached its 100-DMA. Next level
of support: 200-DMA ($62; 6% lower).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index lost 0.85% last week. It is testing support at the 200-DMA and is trading 7% off highs. The index is in a Confirmed Uptrend. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark fell 0.6% last week and is trading 8% off highs. The index remains in a Confirmed uptrend. We recommend investors add risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at two. MELI broke out of a double-bottom base.
- Stocks of interest: Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ), Banco Do Brasil (IO3.BR; BBAS3 BZ), Totvs (TOT.BR; TOTS3 BZ), Industrias Penoles (PA2.MX; PENOLES*MM), Grupo Cementos (GCC.MX; GCC* MM) and Falabella Saci (FAL.CL; FALAB CI). Additional ideas are highlighted in page 3.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined 5.9% on above average volume last week and breached its 50-DMA. The IGV is
currently testing support at its 100-DMA ($100). The IGV’s quantitative metrics have deteriorated over the last few weeks: Up/Down
Volume ratio fell below 1 and Acc/Dist Rating remained negative. All 12 software-related groups declined with multiple groups falling
more than 6% including Ed/Media (DUOL), Spec Enterprise (TEAM), Security (PANW), and Database (ORCL). Despite the high
volume sell-off, the majority of constituents have just pulled back into their base. To remain constructive, it is important for ideas to
consolidate above long-term support. Key earnings this week include CRM, INTU, NTNX, and SNOW, We advise a cautious
approach and trimming exposure should ideas break below key support levels.
