Commentary: GBTC is up 0.5% this week and is holding above support at the 200-DMA. It has near-term resistance at its 50-DMA ($68.88;
3% away). Following the same trend as the Nasdaq, the crypto market remains in a Rally Attempt. We remain cautious on crypto and on
stocks within the crypto ecosystem until GBTC records a follow-through day.
Author: Romeo Alvarez
Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London.
Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch.
Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.
INDIAN ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING REPORT
Key Points:
- iPhone assembly in India is ramping up. Apple already manufactures 20% of all iPhones in India. We believe that tariffs concerns will accelerate the shift in production from China to India. According to reports, Apple has an aggressive target of manufacturing 50% of all iPhones in India by 2027. We believe Apple’s rising investments in India is likely to set a trend, encouraging other global electronics OEMs to expand their manufacturing presence there.
- India’s electronics exports are scaling rapidly, with the U.S. emerging as a key growth driver. Overall, exports are expected to register a 41% CAGR during FY24–FY28.
- Indian Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) stocks are poised to benefit from this shift. Companies like Dixon (DIX.IN), Kaynes (KT1.IN), Amber (BEI.IN), PG Electroplast (PGE.IN), Syrma (SS9.IN), and Avalon (AVT.IN) are strategically positioned to capitalize on this growth.
- Top pick: Dixon (DIX.IN) is the only domestic player with exposure to mobile phone manufacturing with high profile customer base of Samsung, Xiaomi, Motorola, and others.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 0.3% last week and is attempting to retake its 200-DMA. The index was shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Correction. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark index was flat last week. It is trading 11% off highs and is below the 200-DMA. The index was shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Correction. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
- Last week, we added JBS (JBS.BR; JBSS3 BZ) to the Focus List, taking the total number of FL stocks in the LATAM region to two.
- Stocks of interest: Coca-Cola Femsa Ubl (KFBL.MX; KOFUBL MM), Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ), Cury Construtora (CCE.BE; CURY3 BZ) and BB Seguridade (BBS.BR; BBSE3 BZ).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark jumped ~7% last week and regained its 10-DMA ($86) with the next level of resistance at
its declining 21-DMA ($89). The IGV is 21% off highs with poor quantitative metrics, including an Up/Down Volume ratio below 1 and
an Acc/Dist Rating of E. Most ideas are well below key levels of resistance with only a few ideas -TTAN, ULS, PAYC, TTWO- setting
up and trading above their respective 50-DMA. We recommend investors take a cautious approach and look for constituents to regain
and hold above resistance for an incremental sign of improvement.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: GBTC is in a Rally Attempt. GBTC is down 5.3% this week and is currently testing support at the 200-DMA ($63.00). It has
near-term resistance at its 21-DMA ($66.05; 5% away). We remain cautious on the crypto market and on stocks within the crypto ecosystem
until GBTC records a Follow Through Day.
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined ~9.5 last week on above average volume. The IGV is 27% off highs. It has poor
quantitative metrics, including a declining RS line, an RS Rating of 42, and an Acc/Dist Rating of E. The next level of support is near $75,
which coincides with the 2024 lows. All software constituents are under distribution, with ~90% of ideas trading below their 200-DMA. We
recommend investors take a cautious approach and trim exposure should ideas break below their key support levels.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: Bitcoin remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Last week, Bitcoin was up 1.8%, whereas GBTC was down 2.2%. Despite global
markets tumbling on tariffs news, Bitcoin has remained resilient. The next level of support for GBTC is at the 200-DMA ($62.8), and the next
level of resistance is at its 50-DMA ($72).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 0.3% last week and is trading 4% off highs. The index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three distribution days. We recommend investors add risk in Brazilian equities.
Mexico’s main benchmark gained 0.95% last week and is trading 9% off highs. The index remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. We recommend investors selectively add risk in Mexican equities.
The number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region remains at two.
Stocks of interest: Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ), Jbs (JBS.BR; JBSS3 BZ), Tim (TCS.BR; TIMS3 BZ), Cyrela (3CY.BR; CYRE3 BZ), Coca-Cola Femsa (KFBL.MX; KOFUBL MM) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA.MX; OMAB MM). Additional ideas are highlighted in page 2
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined ~3.5% last week after hitting resistance slightly above its 200-DMA ($93). The next
level of support is near the early March low ($87). The IGV’s quantitative metrics remain weak, with declining RS line and an Acc/Dist
Rating of D-. Most constituents are fading off resistance and poised to retest their lows from early March. Vulnerable constituents that
could face additional selling pressure include ORCL, CRM, NOW, PYPL, and ADSK. We recommend investors take a cautious approach
and trim exposure should ideas break below their key support levels.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We upgraded Bitcoin to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt as it staged a follow-through day on March 24.
GBTC has gained 4% this week and continues to hold above its 200-DMA. Our conviction in the new rally would increase if GBTC is
able to break above resistance at its 50-DMA ($73.33; 9% away). Given overall market conditions in the U.S. and risk aversion
environment, our conviction in the current rally in low.
