Commentary: The crypto market remains in an uptrend. GBTC is up over 6% so far this week and trading above all major moving averages. Next resistance is at its December 2024 high of $86.11 (5% away). GBTC has a strong RS Rating of 94 and is forming a consolidation base. We recommend adding risk in Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem.
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Software (IGV): The software benchmark jumped ~5% higher and regained all moving averages. The 100-DMA ($97) is the first level of
support. We continue to see an improvement in quantitative metrics including numerical Acc/Dist Rating, which has turned positive along
with a letter rating of C+ and rising RS line. Ideas that are setting up or have regained key levels of resistance including CVLT, GWRE,
MSFT, FICO, and DUOL. Eight of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over the last four weeks, with Financial
(#64) and Tech Services (#29) showing the sharpest improvement. We recommend that investors focus on ideas with a rising RS line and
that are holding above key moving averages.
Commentary: The crypto market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. GBTC is up 1.2% so far this week and is trading above all major moving
averages, including its 50- and 100-DMA. Next resistance is at its December 2024 high of $86.11. GBTC has a strong RS Rating of 93 and is
forming a consolidation base. We recommend a gradual approach to adding risk in Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem.
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Software (IGV): The software benchmark gained ~9% last week. It regained support along its 21-, 50-, and 200-DMA. It is 15% off highs,
with next resistance at its 100-DMA (+4%). Quantitative metrics though improved remain weak, Up/Down Volume ratio is below 1 while
Acc/Dist Rating of has turned positive. Ideas that are actionable or setting up and have regained most of their key moving averages include
CRWD, GWRE, PLTR and ZS. Seven of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in the Group Rank over the last four weeks, with
Design (#116) and Financial (#83) showing the sharpest improvement. We recommend that investors focus on ideas with a rising RS line
and that are holding above key moving averages, while avoiding ideas that are below key support levels.
Commentary: We are shifting the crypto market to a Confirmed Uptrend after GBTC recorded a follow-through day on April 22. GBTC is up 10% this week and is retaking key moving averages, including the 50- and 100-DMA. Next resistance is at its December 2024 high of $86.11. We recommend a gradual approach to adding risk in the crypto ecosystem. MSTR and HOOD screen the best in the crypto ecosystem
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.5% last week after bouncing off support at the 200-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
Mexico’s main benchmark rose 3% last week and retook support at the 200-DMA and 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend investors wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
Last week, we added Cury Construtora (CCE.BR; CURY3 BZ) to the Focus List after the stock broke out of a consolidation base. The total number of Focus List stocks in the LATAM region is three.
Stocks of interest: Direccional (DIR.BR; DIRR3 BZ), Cyrela (3CY.BR; CYRE3 BZ), Itau Unibanco (IU4.BR; ITUB4 BZ), Totvs (TOT.BR; TOTS3 BZ), Ambev (AVS.BR; ABEV3 BZ) and Coca-Cola Femsa (KFBL.MX; KOFUBL MM)
Software (IGV): The software benchmark declined slightly (69bps) last week after fading off resistance at the declining 21-DMA ($89).
The IGV is vulnerable to additional downside pressure with the next level of support near early April lows ($75). Overall, quantitative
metrics remain poor with RS line near year-to-date lows and Acc/Dist Rating of E. Only a few ideas are consolidating above key
moving averages including CRWD, TTAN, and TTWO. However, most software constituents are under distribution and trading below
their 200-DMA. We recommend investors take a cautious approach and trim exposure should ideas break below key support levels.
Commentary: GBTC is up 0.5% this week and is holding above support at the 200-DMA. It has near-term resistance at its 50-DMA ($68.88;
3% away). Following the same trend as the Nasdaq, the crypto market remains in a Rally Attempt. We remain cautious on crypto and on
stocks within the crypto ecosystem until GBTC records a follow-through day.
