Commentary: We shifted bitcoin to a Confirmed Uptrend from Uptrend Under Pressure after GBTC bounced off support at its 50-DMA and
approaches all-time highs. It is now just 5% off highs. Stocks that screen well through the O’Neil lens and are setting up include COIN,
MSTR, XYZ, and CORZ.
Author: Romeo Alvarez
Romeo Alvarez is a senior equity analyst at William O’Neil + Co., a registered investment advisor serving 400 top-performing institutional portfolio managers worldwide. The firm employs 150 associates in Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and London.
Based in the firm’s Los Angeles office, Mr. Alvarez is a senior equity analyst covering the Americas region and a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Romeo also selects equity initiations to be covered in the Technology sector and regularly reports to clients on innovation and technology developments in Trend Watch.
Mr. Alvarez earned a B.S. in Business Economics from the University of California, Riverside, and an MBA with a focus in Finance from Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles.
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 2.9% last week but continues to trade below its 50- and 200-DMAs. The index was shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark rose 0.7% last week and continues to trade below all its key moving averages. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at four.
- Stocks of interest: Embotelladora Andina (ADB.CL; ANDINAB CI), Bb Seguridade (BBS.BE; BBSE3 BZ), Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (GAP.MX; GAPB MM) and Latam Airlines Group (LAN.CL; LTM CI).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark bounced off support at its 100-DMA ($96; -4%) and is in the midst of building a base;
However, it faces resistance at its 21-DMA ($101; +0.3%), followed by its 50-DMA ($103; +3%). Quantitative metrics are mixed:
Up/Down Volume ratio of above 1, while Acc/Dist Rating declined to -31 and RS line has declined from its December high. Most
constituents are consolidating at or along support with only a few on the right side of the base and approaching pivot including FOUR,
PEGA, PYPL, and WIX. Eight of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over the last four weeks, with
Security (#50) and Gaming (#99) showing the sharpest improvement, followed by Database (#45). Focus on quality ideas building the
right side of their base with improving quant metrics.
Crypto Stocks Through the O’Neil Lens
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: GBTC is up 6% so far this week after bouncing off support at its 50-DMA on expectations that President-elect
Donald Trump will announce favorable executive orders and measures for the crypto market. Trump’s inaguration is slated for
Monday. We will shift the status of the crypto market to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure if GBTC retakes its
recent high of $86.11 (8% away).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 0.3% last week but continues to trade below its 50-DMA and 200-DMA. The index was shifted to a Rally attempt from a Downtrend. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark rose 1.3% last week but continues to hit resistance at its declining 50-DMA. The index remains in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at four.
- Stocks of interest: Suzano (SUZ.BR; SUZB3 BZ), Genomma Lab (GLI.MX; LABB MM), Grupo Aeroportuario Del Centro Norte (OMA.MX; OMAB MM) and Falabella Saci (FAL.CL; FALAB CI).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark has pulled back for the fifth consecutive week and is now 12% off highs. The IGV is below
its 50-DMA ($102), with the next level of support at the rising 100-DMA ($95). Quantitative metrics have declined over the past few
weeks: RS line has turned lower, while the numerical Acc/Dist Rating remained negative at -30, along with a letter rating of D-. There
are no actionable ideas, as many key ideas, including NOW, CRM, and PLTR, are at or have broken key support levels and are due to
consolidate. We recommend being cautious and reducing exposure in ideas breaking below key support levels.
O’Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly
Commentary: We shifted our view on bitcoin to an Uptrend Under Pressure from Confirmed Uptrend as due to the elevated number of distribution days in GBTC (six distribution days). GBTC is down 5% for the week and is now 14% of highs. Level of support: 50-DMA ($73; 2% away).
LATAM Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 1.4% last week and continues to trade below its 200-DMA. The index remains in a Downtrend. We recommend clients avoid adding risk in Brazilian equities.
- Mexico’s main benchmark declined 0.7% last week and continues to trade below all its key moving averages. The index is in a Rally Attempt. We recommend clients wait for a follow-through day before adding risk in Mexican equities.
- The total number of Focus List ideas in the LATAM region remains at four.
- Stocks of interest: Suzano (SUZ.BR; SUZB3 BZ), Latam Airlines Group (LAN.CL; LTM CI) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (GAP.MX; GAPB MM).
O’Neil TMT Weekly
Software (IGV): The software benchmark has pulled back for the fourth consecutive week, and breached support at its 50-DMA
($101). Next support is at its rising 100-DMA ($95). The IGV is 8% off highs and quantitative metrics have declined over the past few
weeks: RS line has turned lower, while the numerical Acc/Dist Rating remained negative at -13, along with a letter rating of D+. While
the majority of software constituents are consolidating, only a few are at or near a pivot including CRM, KVYO, PCOR, and SQ.
Despite the consolidation, three of the 12 industry groups have shown improvement in Group Rank over the last four weeks, with
Medical (#38) and Tech Services (#22) showing the sharpest improvement, followed by Credit Card & Payment Processors (#27).
We recommend being cautious and reducing exposure in ideas breaking below key support levels.
