Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index declined 0.7% this week. The
index is currently testing support at the 200-DMA and trading 5% off its
52-week high. It added two distribution days this week. It remains in an
Uptrend Under Pressure with five distribution days.
Author: Sai Kiran
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 gained 0.84% on higher and about average volume and remains in
an Uptrend Under Pressure with the number of distribution days falling to six
from eight. The index retook its 50-DMA (~4,882, -0.4%) with next resistance
at the 100-DMA (~4,917, +0.3%) and immediate support at November 10’s low
(4,754, -3.0%).
Global Focus Frontier
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock
Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks
in Vietnam and a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its
industry-leading growth and key financial ratios,
along with its exposure to the consumer finance
industry, will drive growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 lost 0.74% on higher yet below average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under
Pressure with eight distribution days. The index continued moving sideways around its 50-DMA
(~4,892, +0.7%) with key resistance at the 100-DMA (~4,930, +1.4%) and major support at July
28’s low (~4,664, -4.0%). Re-rising COVID concerns dampened sentiment that had just improved
slightly on expectations of domestic policy easing. Sino-U.S. relations made headlines with another
twelve Chinese companies blacklisted by the U.S. Steel stocks led the gains on expectations of tight
supply and improving demand. Stocks related to permanent magnetic, a key material of higher-end
motors, were boosted by policy support for higher motor efficiencies. EV battery-related stocks outperformed on strong lithium prices and a robust outlook. Healthcare was rattled by new domestic
COVID cases and policy on eldercare and rehabilitation industries. Tourism companies remain
shadowed by COVID. Real estate underperformed amid lingering liquidity worries. Agricultural
stocks retreated further from the previous rally on bottoming hopes. The market was volatile and
weak with a high distribution day count and strong rotation. We are more cautious on concerns
about new COVID variants. Investors should stay cautious, disciplined, and selective and avoid
chasing highs.
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back
sharply this week, with both closing below their respective 21-DMA. The next level of support
is September highs at 4,545 and 15,403, respectively, which may also coincide with the rising
50-DMA. The distribution day count remains low at three and one, respectively, with one day
expiring on the S&P 500 next week.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 0.90% below last Friday’s close. Of
the 17 indices we cover, eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally
Attempt, six in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and two in a downtrend. We
downgraded Belgium to an Uptrend Under Pressure after it breached its
50-DMA, and Ireland and Spain to a Downtrend after they breached all
key moving averages.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index declined 1.7% this week. The
index declined below its 50- and 100-DMA. It added one distribution
day this week. It remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four
distribution days.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 lost 0.74% on higher yet below average volume and
remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with eight distribution
days. The index continued moving sideways around its 50-DMA
(~4,892, +0.7%) with key resistance at the 100-DMA (~4,930,
+1.4%) and major support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -4.0%).
Global Focus Frontier
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock
Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks
in Vietnam and a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its
industry-leading growth and key financial ratios,
along with its exposure to the consumer finance
industry, will drive growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 ended flat with a modest gain of 0.03% on lighter and below average volume and
remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with eight distribution days. The index continued moving
sideways around its 50-DMA (~4,894, +0.1%) with key resistance at the 100-DMA (~4,946,
+1.1%). Immediate support lies at November 10’s low (4,754, -2.8%) followed by July 28’s low
(~4,664, -4.6%). October saw improving industry output (+3.5% y/y, consensus 3.2%) and recovering
retail sales (+4.9% y/y, consensus 3.4%), though fixed asset investment missed expectations
(+6.1% y/y, consensus 6.3%). Food & beverage led gains on price hike expectations. Health care
rebounded on better-than-expected drug price negotiations. Lithium companies outperformed on
strong lithium prices backed by EV demand, while auto companies revealed weaknesses. Agricultural
stocks retreated from an inflation expectations-fueled rally in previous weeks. Real estate lagged
on weakening sales and property development investment but bounced Friday. Semiconductors also
posted weekly losses. The index faces strong resistance at its 100-DMA, but key support at previous
lows still hold. We will stay patient amid high volatility, strong rotation, and a rising distribution
day count. Investors should be cautious, disciplined, and selective and avoid chasing highs.
