China A Shares

The CSI 300 fell 1.37% on higher but lower-than-average volume. The market remains in a Rally Attempt. The index was testing support at its 200-DMA (4,950, -0.3%), with next support at the previous low of March 25 (4,884, -1.66%). Immediate resistance lies at the declining 21-DMA (5035, +1.4%). Q1 GDP rose 18.3% y/y, hitting a record high for the 21st century and a CAGR of 5% from Q1 2019. Industrial production, fixed asset investment, and social retail sales came in mixed but improving m/m (q/q). March’s social financing and M2 missed consensus but incremental RMB loans were stronger than expected. Auto stocks led the gains, boosted by Huawei’s driverless car initiative. Energy, food & beverage, and real estate outperformed while the leisure & services sector lagged, dragged by CTS.CN’s lower-than-expected Q1 2021 earnings. Sector rotation remained swift without consistent themes despite healthy FY20 and Q1 2021 earnings reported by many sectors. We recommend staying cautious as the index challenges 200-DMA support amid the highly volatile market. Be selective and focus on companies with strong earnings and improving technical profiles.

US Focus

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 continues to make new alltime highs, now gaining 1% or more for four straight weeks. The index is now trading above its upper channel line and ~6% above its 50-DMA, the biggest extension since August 2020. Though extended, there are no signs of technical weakness as the index remains above all major moving averages with low distribution. The Nasdaq is now testing all-time high resistance between current prices and 14,175. Look for the 10- and 21-DMA to act as near-term support should indices pullback next week. The distribution day count stands at three and four, respectively, with no expiration next week.

Global Focus Emerging

The CSI 300 fell 1.37% on higher but lower-than-average volume. The market remains in a Rally Attempt. The index was testing support at its 200-DMA (4,950, -0.3%), with next support at the previous low of March 25 (4,884, -1.66%). Immediate resistance lies at the declining 21-DMA (5035, +1.4%).

Global Focus Frontier

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks in Vietnam and is a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its industry-leading growth and key financial ratios, along with its exposure to the consumer finance industry, will drive its growth.