China A Shares

The CSI 300 gained 1.78% on slightly lower but above average volume. The market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with five distribution days. The index consolidated around its 50-DMA, with resistance at recent highs of ~5,000 (+1.1%) and support at the 21-DMA (4,830, -2.3%). Sentiment hurt by recent bond market defaults improved on optimism about the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership signed last weekend and mixed but improving economic data Monday. Property developers, with relatively low valuation, led the gain as improving starts, completions, and sales data increased its attractiveness. Financials outperformed, with banking and insurance rallying on a better domestic economic outlook. Materials and energy were strong on hopes of improving demand strengthened by recent vaccine progress. Consumer cyclical was up, driven by automobile stocks after the government launched fresh stimulus to encourage auto consumption. Selling pressure in long-term leading COVID-19 beneficiaries, mainly health care and information technology, continued. We expect the CSI to remain in consolidation and recommend that investors stay patient and adopt a selective approach amid current strong sector rotation.

US Focus

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat on the week, consolidating within 2% of all-time intraday highs. Both indices tagged and held 10-DMA support this week. Support below that level remains the rising 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,512; Nasdaq: 11,665).

Global Focus Emerging

The CSI 300 gained 1.78% on slightly lower but above average volume. The market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with five distribution days. The index consolidated around its 50-DMA, with resistance at recent highs of ~5,000 (+1.1%) and support at the 21-DMA (4,830, -2.3%).

China A Shares

The CSI 300 fell 0.59% on slightly higher volume. The market was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend Monday, with the number of distribution days increasing to five. Next support is at the 21-DMA (4,805, -1.1%) and resistance lies at Monday’s new high of ~5,000 (+9.0%). The index gapped up to break above resistance at August’s high (~4,900) on much larger volume Monday, as Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election raised hopes about U.S.-China relations. However, it trended down the following four sessions and fell below 4,900 again Friday, as October M2 and incremental RMB loans were lower than consensus and September data, lifting concerns about shrinking liquidity. Defaults of some AAA-rated credit bonds also pressured market sentiment. Basic Material and Energy led this week on expectations of a global economic recovery, boosted by stronger-than-consensus October exports. Health Care continued to underperform due to centralized medicine procurements and profit-takings on positive news about the Pfizer vaccine. Consumer Cyclical lagged as automobile stocks retreated after recent strong gains and media stocks, which had benefited from stay-at-home trends, fell. We expect the CSI to consolidate in the near term and investors should adopt a patient and selective approach.

US Focus

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading near alltime highs, holding above 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 3,466; Nasdaq: 11,532) after reversing off intraday highs on Monday. The distribution day count stands at seven and six, respectively, with one expiring on the S&P 500 Monday and another on Tuesday.