Global Focus Frontier

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China A Shares

The CSI 300 rose 4% on much higher volume this week. We upgraded the market to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt on February 17 as it registered a follow-through day. Major stock indexes rose as Chinese authorities launched new stimulus measures to steady the economy and curtail the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Investors’ risk preference has improved on China’s strong credit growth in January and the expectation of more stimulus measures. Technology stocks continue to outperform, driving the tech-heavy ChiNext index to three-year highs. The CSI 300 retook its 50-DMA on high volume and hit new rally highs. As momentum has remained strong since February 3, we expect increased pullback pressure on the market. Investors are advised to stay patient and avoid chasing extended ideas. Select leading names that are trading constructively within a buy area. We see the CSI 300’s the next resistance near January highs of 4,200 and next support at the 50-DMA (~4,000) in the near term.

US Focus

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back to their respective 21-DMA after making new all-time highs earlier in the week. Distribution did rise over the last several sessions, though one day will expire on both indices next week. We will likely shift the market status back to Uptrend Under Pressure should indices close below the 21-DMA in the coming days. The next level of support below the 21-DMA is the 50-DMA (S&P 500: 3,274 (-1.9%); Nasdaq: 9,228 (-3.8%).

European Focus

On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 closed 0.32% lower and was down 0.08% from last Friday’s close. Today, the Stoxx 600 is again losing 0.18% after opening in the green. The spread of coronavirus remains a threat and theme for the global markets.

Global Focus Emerging

The CSI 300 rose 4% on much higher volume this week. We upgraded the market to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt on February 17 as it registered a follow-through day. Major stock indexes rose as Chinese authorities launched new stimulus measures to steady the economy and curtail the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Investors’ risk preference has improved on China’s strong credit growth in January and the expectation of more stimulus measures. Technology stocks continue to outperform, driving the tech-heavy ChiNext index to three-year highs. The CSI 300 retook its 50-DMA on high volume and hit new rally highs. As momentum has remained strong since February 3, we expect increased pullback pressure on the market. Investors are advised to stay patient and avoid chasing extended ideas. Select leading names that are trading constructively within a buy area. We see the CSI 300’s the next resistance near January highs of 4,200 and next support at the 50-DMA (~4,000) in the near term.

China A Shares

The CSI 300 rose 2.25% on lower volume this week and the market remains in a Rally Attempt. The index continued to rally and retook its 100-DMA. We would like it hold above this level to remain constructive. Investors are concerned about how soon the coronavirus outbreak will peak and a follow-through day could occur should fears subside. Expectations of an interest rate cut have increased to boost China’s economy. Investors are advised to stay patient, waiting for more signals. Meanwhile, focus on sectors with guaranteed growth and select leading names with strong fundamental and technical ratings. The CSI 300 faces immediate resistance at the 50- DMA (~4,000) and is testing support along its 100-DMA at ~3,950. The next level of support is at the 200-DMA (3,860) if the 100-DMA fails.

US Focus

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to trend into higher highs, above all major moving averages. Near-term support remains the rising 10- and 21- DMA. Distribution stands at three days each with one day expiring on the Nasdaq next week.

European Focus

On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended the day 2% above last Friday’s close and remained in a Confirmed Uptrend. Of the 17 indices we cover, 13 are in a Confirmed Uptrend, three are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Rally Attempt.