Author: shailendra bhogaraju

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Sector ETF Performance – U.S.

XLF advanced 3.3% last week. It reclaimed its 50- and 100-DMA. It is currently trading 6% off highs, with immediate support at its 50-DMA ($48.6; -1.6%). RS line is trending sideways, indicating in-line performance with the broader market, but Acc/Dist Rating remains weak at E. Foreign Banks and Insurance related stocks have been outperforming over the past three months, while Investment Management stocks, Super Regional Banks, Consumer Loans Stocks, and Real Estate Developers underperformed

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Sector ETF Performance – U.S.

XLF advanced 5.6% last week. It reclaimed its 200-DMA and is trading 1.5% below its 50-DMA. It is currently trading 8% off highs, with immediate support at its 200-DMA ($47.49, (-1.5%)). RS line is trending sideways, indicating in-line performance with the broader market, but Acc/Dist Rating remains weak at E. Insurance and Foreign Banks and Insurance-related stocks have outperformed over the past three months, while Investment Management stocks, Super Regional Banks, and Real Estate Developers underperformed

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Sector ETF Performance – U.S.

XLF declined 3.4% last week and breached its 10-EMA. It is trading 3.7% below its 200-DMA. It is currently trading 13% off highs, with next support around recent lows of $42.2. RS line is trending sideways, indicating in-line performance with the broader market, but the Acc/Dist Rating remains weak at E. Insurance and Exchange-related stocks have outperformed over the past three months, while Investment Management stocks underperformed

Reiterating Buy on ICICI Bank (ICG.IN) on Earnings Beat and Breakout to New Highs

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Attached is a reiteration note on Focus List stock ICICI Bank from Shailendra Bhogaraju, Senior Equity Research Analyst, William O’Neil India; Kunal Gupta, Equity Research Analyst, William O’Neil India; and Rushit Sejpal, Equity Research Analyst, William O’Neil India.

 

  • Buy ICICI Bank shares as they are breaking out of a stage-two, 26-week flat base and trading in the actionable range of INR 1,363–1,431. The bank reported better-than-expected Q4 FY25 results on April 19. NII beat estimates by 2%, while net profit beat estimates by 8%. The net income beat was due to higher loan growth. A moderating inflation environment, declining crude oil prices, and expectations of a normal monsoon, should give the RBI more room to cut interest rates further going forward. This will positively impact credit demand and lead to strong loan growth amid the government’s budgetary push to increase consumption.
  • Strong fundamental profile: EPS Rank 89 and an SMR Rating of A supported by expanding pretax margin and ROE over the past five years. It has good earnings stability with a three- and five-year earnings stability factor of 4 and 10, respectively.
  • Good technical setup: Its RS line is at all-time highs with an improving RS Rating of 83. An Up/Down Volume ratio of 1.8 and an Acc/Dist Rating of B+ indicate good demand for the stock.
  • The stock has outperformed its peers, the Nifty Bank (0INNSEBK) index, and the Sensex (0IBOMSEN) over the past year

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

XLF advanced 7% last week. It reclaimed its 10-EMA and is trading just below its 200-DMA. It is currently trading 10% off highs, with next
support around recent lows of $42.2. RS line is trending sideways, indicating in-line performance with the broader market, but Acc/Dist
Rating remains at E. Insurance-related stocks have outperformed over the past three months.

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

XLF declined more than 10% last week and broke below support at its 100- and 200-DMA ($47.1; +7%). It is currently trading 16% off highs,
with next support around its August 2024 low of $40.7. RS line is trending sideways, indicating in-line performance relative to the broader
market, but Acc/Dist Rating remains weak at E. Insurance-related stocks have been outperforming over the past three months.

U.S. Financials

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Key points from the note:

  • Insurance groups, including brokers and property and casualty (P&C) insurers, are leading within U.S. Financials.
  • Insurance, a defensive industry group, has outperformed during historical market weakness.
  • We like excess and surplus line (E&S) players and brokers in the insurance space due to their high pricing power and asset-light business model.
  • Refer to pages 9–14 for annotated Datagraphs® of select insurance companies within these groups. Ideas in bold are part of our U.S. Focus List.
    • E&S players: PLMR, SKWD, and BOW.
    • Brokers: BRO, RYAN, and GSHD

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

Sector ETF Performance – U.S.
XLF faced resistance at its 50-DMA ($50.5; +2%) and broke below its 100-DMA ($49.9) last week. It is currently trading 5% off highs, with next support at the 200-DMA ($47.0; -6%). Though RS line is trending upward with a strong RS Rating of 84, the sector remains under distribution as reflected by the worst-possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. Insurance-related stocks have been outperforming over the past three months.
KBWB (Large Cap Banks) also rolled over after hitting resistance at the declining 21-DMA ($64.1; +3%). It is trading 13% off highs, with next support at the 200-DMA ($62.5). Leading ideas from the group: BK, C, WFC.
KRE (Regional Banks) continues to trade below its 200-DMA ($58.5; +3%). It is trading 19% off highs, with next support at the recent low of $54.56. RS line is still in a downtrend, with the worst-possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. Leading ideas in the group: CCB, TBBK, FLG.
IAK (Insurance) retook all its key moving averages and is breaking out of a stage-two cup-with-handle base with a pivot of $137.8. Immediate support is at its rising 21-DMA ($134.9; -1%). RS line is trending upward, indicating outperformance. Leading ideas in the group: PGR, PLMR, BRO, SKWD, RYAN, GSHD.
IAI (Investment Services) is taking support at its 200-DMA ($136.8; -2%). It is trading 12% off highs and has immediate resistance at its declining 21-DMA ($143

O’Neil Financial Sector Weekly

Posted on by shailendra bhogaraju

XLF reclaimed its 100-DMA ($49.7; -1%). It is trading 5% off highs, just below its 50-DMA ($50.3). The index has strong price support
near its October 2024 high of $47.8. Though the RS line is trending upward with a strong RS Rating of 84, the sector remains under
distribution, as is evident in the worst possible Acc/Dist Rating of E. Insurance-related stocks have outperformed over the past three
months.