Q1 GDP rate comes in above consensus.
As per the second estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 GDP increased 2.2% y/y, 100bps higher than the
advance estimate. Median GDP growth rate forecast for 2018 was increased to 2.5% from 2.1%.
Author: Shuvajit Mukherjee
Economic Summary
Q4 GDP rate at 2.6% after two consecutive quarters of more than 3%.
As per the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q4 GDP increased 2.6% y/y, below consensus.
Economists were expecting 3% y/y increase for the third consecutive quarter. Higher imports anchored the Q4 rate.
2017 GDP rate stood at 2.3%, compared with 1.5% and 2.9% in the previous two years. Median GDP growth rate
forecast for 2018 was increased from 2.1% to 2.5%.
Economic Summary
Q3 GDP rate beats consensus.
As per the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Q3 2017 GDP rate grew 3% y/y,
compared with a 3.1% growth rate in Q2 2017.The Q3 2017 consensus stood at 2.5%. The Q3 2017 GDP growth
was driven by an increase in inventory investment and a lower trade deficit.
Economic Summary
Q2 GDP rate revised upwards.
As per the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Q2 2017 GDP rate grew 3% y/y.
It was revised from the advance estimate of 2.6% y/y, which was in line with the consensus estimate of 2.7%.
The GDP growth was driven by a growth in personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and federal government
spending.
Economic Summary
Q2 GDP in line with forecast.
In Q2 2017, as per the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP rate grew
2.6% y/y, in line with the consensus estimate of 2.7%. The GDP growth was driven by a growth in personal
consumption expenditure (PCE) and federal government spending.
Economic Summary
Q1 GDP revised upwards.
In Q1 2017, as per the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP rate was
revised from 1.2% y/y, to 1.4% y/y, against the consensus estimate of 1.2%. The upward revision was due to the
increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which was higher than previously expected.
Economic Summary
Q1 GDP revised upwards.
In Q1 2017, as per the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP rate was
revised from 0.7% y/y, to 1.2% y/y, against the consensus estimate of 0.9%.
US Focus Long
The market status remain Uptrend Under Pressure. There are six distribution days on the S&P 500 with one set to fall off next week. There are three distribution days on the Nasdaq with one also set to expire next week. Though the major averages have been unable to rally above resistance, leadership continues to act well. Multiple ideas are making new highs and there have been few major technical breakdowns among leading names. However, we are waiting for the S&P 500 to clear above its downward trending upper channel line and for the Nasdaq to reach new highs before shifting the market back into a Confirm Uptrend
European Focus Long
Due to sharp fall on Tuesday where the Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 1.11%, it is headed toward a loss for the week. Tuesday’s fall came after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap general election this year, resulting in a sharp rally of the pound against the U.S. dollar. This week we downgraded the market status of the U.K., Italy, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic to Uptrend Under Pressure from Confirmed Uptrend. We also moved Norway from Rally Attempt to a Confirmed Downtrend.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index lost 0.6% this week, pulling back from 52-week highs reached last week. It bounced
off 10-week moving average support and closed right at its 21-day moving average. It picked up one distribution day and now has four over the past five weeks.
