Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

U.S. Staples: Why XLP’s Outperformance May Not Last

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key Points:

 

XLP’s Outperformance: A Rotation to Safety Rather Than Fundamental Strength

The recent outperformance of Staples (XLP) versus the broader market since late January has been remarkable, with a +10 percentage point gain in just two months. This surge coincides with one of the fastest market corrections in history, as the S&P 500’s decline since its February 19 high ranks among the sharpest 10% pullbacks on record.
However, it is crucial to recognize that this performance has not been driven by fundamental improvements among Staples. Neither volume growth nor price/mix dynamics are expected to see a meaningful improvement in 2025. Instead, the rally has been fueled by a rotation towards safety, driven by broader market concerns and a “flight to quality” environment.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index declined ~2.1% last week. It pulled back sharply after facing resistance at $83.3 and broke below the 50-, 100- and 200-DMA. It reclaimed these moving averages but broke below them again after facing strong resistance from its declining short-term moving averages. Support is at $78.9 (-1%)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Most European indices made a late comeback rally last week, partly paring the declines made during the first few days of the week. Italy registered an all-time high after bouncing strongly off its rising short-term moving averages. Austria, Belgium, Germany, Portugal, the U.K., Ireland, and Finland bounced off support at their 21-/50-DMA and are trading 1–3% off their 52-week highs, above all moving averages. France, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain, and the Netherlands also had a tepid bounce last week but have run into resistance at the 21-DMA. Denmark made a fresh 52-week low after a sharp pullback from above its 50-DMA.
The Stoxx 600 remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days. The index is testing its rising 50-DMA, a strong support level to monitor. However, breadth in Europe remains very narrow: the number of quality breakouts has declined significantly from February levels, while the number of failed breakouts has surged 4x. Leadership remains very concentrated (e.g. Aerospace and Defense). Thus, we recommend taking a cautious approach in adding new ideas as indices are likely to remain choppy, with elevated distribution days.
Sector performance was mostly negative. Energy (+2.4%) and Utility (+2.0%) were the sole gainers. Retail (-5.3%) lagged the most, followed by Health Care (-3.4%). Consumer Cyclical, Transportation, and Technology closed ~2% lower each. Consumer Staple and Basic Material were down 1% each during the week. Financial and Capital Equipment declined slightly. On our rotation chart, defensive sectors (Staples, Utilities, etc.) continue to show improving momentum (over four weeks). Capital Equipment accelerated its positive momentum led by Aerospace and Defense stocks and remained in the best quadrant.
European Focus List Update:
Actionable names include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
Addition: None.
Removal: Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Boss (Hugo) (BOSSX.DE; BOSS:GR), and InPost (INPW.NL; INPST:NA)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The European markets took a pause this week, settling down 69 bps and tracing back to the rising 21-DMA. This marks the first weekly loss in the past 10 weeks. Although the 10-DMA and the 21-DMA have caught up, the European index is still extended from the rising 50-DMA (4% below) and the mid- to long-term moving averages (6%–7% below). We recommend investors to be more cautious here while adding names considering the recent clustering of distribution. Book gains in stocks with are extended or breaking logical levels of support.
  • Investors are monitoring developments in global trade as trade tensions remain high between the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China as tariffs went into effect last week. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps last week but growing focus of Germany on defense spending has raised the risk of a pause in April. Leadership in Europe is narrowing sharply with the number of breakouts plummeting to 105, less than a quarter of 426 two weeks prior and the lowest level since late December 2024. The number of stocks trading near pivot has also sunk sharply to almost quarter of mid-January highs and the lowest level since late December 2022. Meanwhile, the number of failed bases has jumped more than 4x since mid-February to 2,103, the highest level since March 2020.
  • Last week among the major indices, Germany’s DAX rose 2% and France’s CAC was flat as they continue to trade above their key moving averages. The U.K.’s FTSE breached the near-term moving averages as it declined 1.5% and could test the 50-DMA (2% below). Most European indices are taking a pause after a sharp rise to start the year and pulling back to their near-term moving averages.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), and 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN).
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: Swedish Orphan (SOBI.SE; SOBI SS), Galderma (GALD.CH; GALD SW), Pandora (PND.DK; PNDORA DC), Vimian Group (VIMG.SE, VIMIAN SS), WISE (WISE.GB; WISE LN), Eqt (EQT.SE; EQT SS), Swissquote (SQN.CH, SQN SW), and Vitrolife (VITR.SE; VITR SS).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index declined ~1.8% last week. After pulling back from its recent high, it rebounded off its 10-DMA on
strong volume but experienced a downside reversal yesterday, falling 1.7% on above average volume. It is currently testing support at
the 10-DMA. The next support level is at the 21-DMA (-1%).
Best-performing IGs: Good improvement in the Industry Group Rank of Tobacco over the last eight weeks, with the rank improving to
33 from 81. Food-Misc preparations and Soap & Cleaning preparations were other Industry Groups which have shown improvement
in the rank over the past four and eight weeks

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Most European indices have retreated to their short-term moving averages after hitting 52-week highs. The U.K., Ireland, and Spain are trading at their 52-week highs, while the rest are just 1–3% off 52-week highs. Denmark is 27% off highs but has recently cleared above the 50-DMA, with support at the rising short-term moving averages. Sectors closed mixed, with Utility outperforming and Technology lagging.
We recommend taking a selective approach toward adding new ideas as indices are extended with an elevated distribution day count. To remain constructive, we would like indices to hold their immediate short-term moving averages. Focus on quality O’Neil ideas within strong industry groups emerging from proper bases or bouncing off key support levels. Reduce exposure in extended ideas and stocks breaking support levels.
Sector performance was mixed, with Utility (+3.0%), Staple (+2.6%), and Financial (+2.5%) leading the gains. Transportation was up 1.3%, while Health Care gained 0.6%. Technology underperformed and closed 2.5% lower last week, followed by Basic Material (-0.8%). The remaining sectors closed either flat or slightly positive/negative.
On our rotation graph, sectors exhibited mixed momentum last week. Financial and Capital Equipment continued to show positive momentum in the last two weeks and remained in the best quadrant. Though Consumer Cyclical is in the best quadrant, it is showing sharp deterioration in our sector graph. Utility, Health Care, and Technology remained in the worst quadrant but exhibited slightly positive momentum in the last two weeks. Transportation exhibited a sharp improvement in the short-term momentum. Energy, Material, and Retail showed negative short-term momentum.
European Focus List Update:
Actionable names include 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN), Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Talanx (TLXX.DE; TLX:GR), Boss Hugo (BOSSX.DE; BOSS:GR), and Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR).
Addition: GTT (GTT.FR) and Dino Polska (DIP.PL).
Removal: Swissquote ‘R’ (SQN.CH) and Vitrolife (VITR.SE).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600’s 52 bps bounce off the rising 10-DMA on Friday concluded a week of choppy trading and the ninth consecutive week of gains. The Stoxx 600 registered a new all-time high of 557.96 on Tuesday before retreating 91 bps on Wednesday and 20 bps on Thursday as investors digested mixed corporate earnings against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs and German elections. The index is extended from near-term moving averages with the 21-DMA 1.8% below and 50-DMA 4.9% below. Markets could consolidate here, allowing the moving averages to catch up.
  • Breadth of leadership continues to narrow, as the number of stocks forming their stage-one base declined to the lowest level since late March 2024 (the index lagged from highs of April 2, 2024, to April 19, 2024, declining 1.8%). The number of breakouts dropped sharply last week, while the number of failed bases increased over the last two weeks. Stocks trading near their pivot is at the lowest level since mid-November. Hence, we recommend that investors take a cautious approach here and remain selective while adding names. Reduce exposure to names breaking below logical support levels and only take positions in names breaking out of proper bases from leading sectors.
  • All European markets continue trading above their 21-DMA, except Denmark, which is weighed down by Novo Nordisk’s struggles. All three major indices declined last week, with the DAX dropping 1%, CAC retreating 29 bps, and FTSE declining 84 bps. The DAX, now 2.8% off highs, is attempting to find support at the 10-DMA with additional support at the 21-DMA, 144 bps below. The CAC keeps finding support at the 10-DMA and is now 86 bps off highs. The FTSE breached the 10-DMA (95 bps above) and is now testing support at the 21-DMA. While the 50-DMA is 2.5% below, the index has solid support between 8,584 and 8,501 (1.3% below).
  • Banking, Financial Services, and Telecommunication remained the leading sectors, making new highs last week. Defense remains a strong theme in Europe, with ex-FL-rated Saab (SAAB.SE; +21%) leading gains last week and breaking out of a stage-one consolidation. Konsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO; +16.2%), Leonardo (LDO.IT; +11%), Thales (CSF.FR; +10.2%), and Dassault Aviation (AM@F.FR; +6.9%) were other leading names in this sector. Mining, Chemicals, Autos, and Technology also trade above their key near-term moving averages. The Stoxx 600 Health Care was the best performing sectoral index last week, led by a 13% gain in Novo Nordisk last week, gaining 2.6% and bouncing off the rising 21-DMA. It is now testing overhead resistance from the 200-DMA. Among the laggards, Stoxx 600 Retail and Travel and Leisure declined 3% each last week. Travel and Leisure breached the near-term moving averages but is finding support at the 100-DMA (0.8% below).
  • EFL Update: Actionable: Pandora (PND.DK; PNDORA DC), Hugo Boss (BOSSX.DE; BOSS GR), Vimian Group (VIMG.SE; VIMIAN:SS), Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB; FLTR:LN), and Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR). Addition: Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC IM). Removal: Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose 0.4% last week, and reclaimed its 100-DMA on above average volume. It is currently bouncing off the 100-DMA following a drop in the previous session. It is forming a stage-one flat base and is 3% to the pivot of $83.3. Support is at its 10-DMA (-0.9%), followed by its 200-DMA (-1.5%).