Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets rallied 3.1% last week, with a 1.7% gain on Friday, capping off a 16% rally of early April lows. Investors are reacting positively to earnings, better-than-expected job growth, steady unemployment reports from the U.S. and de-escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions as Beijing signals that it is open to discussions. While the April Eurozone CPI figures remained above the ECB’s target and marginally higher than expectations, the path to further rate cuts remains open as the hit from U.S. tariffs and uncertainty could drag economic growth over subsequent quarters.
  • The Stoxx 600 now trades just 5% off its early March highs and above all its key moving averages after reclaiming the 100-DMA (529; 1.4% below) and 50-DMA (533; 59 bps below) last week on good volume. After the sharp rally, we expect the index to consolidate between 547 (2% above) and 529. The number of stocks breaking out steadily rose over the past three weeks, while the number of failed bases dropped sharply over the past four weeks. As European indices continue their V-shaped recovery, we recommend investors cautiously add positions in ideas emerging from proper early-base setups while monitoring stocks which are extended and breaking below near-term moving averages or rolling over after facing resistance.
  • On the sectoral front, all except Mining (-0.5%) closed in the green. Banks, Chemicals, Retail, and Financial Services are now trading above their key moving averages as Utility, Telecom, and Food & Beverage are trading near or making new highs. Health Care (+5.4%), Technology (+4.9%), and Travel & Leisure (+3.3%) led the rally last week but now face significant overhead resistance from their respective declining 50-DMA. Oil & Gas, Autos, and Mining continue to lag the broader market

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP):The index declined ~1.2% in the past one week. It is above all key moving averages and is consolidating near its
short-term moving averages and 50-DMA. It is forming a stage-one flat base with a pivot of $84.35 (+4%). Support is at its 50-DMA (-0.4%),
followed by its 200-DMA (-0.8%).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend last Wednesday after it recorded a follow-through day, gaining 1.79% on volume higher than the previous day – a key technical signal. France, Germany, and Austria also registered a follow-through day and were upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. Of the 16 indices we track across the region (including the Stoxx 600), 10 markets are now in a Confirmed Uptrend.
  • Last week, sector performance was mostly positive. Consumer Cyclical (+4.3%) led by Autos, Basic Material (+4.1%), and Technology (+3.7%) led the gains. Defensive Consumer Staple (+0.8%) and Utility (-0.1%) lagged on a relative basis. As shown in our Sector Score Cards, leadership is emerging among Consumer Cyclical, Capital Equipment, and Financial, as many stocks are breaking out of or forming the right side of their base after bottoming out two weeks ago.
  • We recommend taking a gradual approach toward adding new ideas as indices bounced off their recent lows. Reduce exposure in stocks that are breaking below their key support levels or rolling over after facing resistance at their key moving averages. Focus on ideas that are emerging from proper early-stage bases and monitor stocks retaking their key resistance levels.
  • European Focus List update:
    • Actionable names include Premier Foods (PFD.GB), Relx (REL.GB), Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.GB), Siemens Energy (Xet) (ENRX.DE), and 3i Group (III.GB).
    • Addition: Relx (REL.GB), Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.GB), Siemens Energy (Xet) (ENRX.DE), and 3i Group (III.GB).
    • Removal: None.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP):The index rose~2.6% in the past one week. It bounced off its 21-DMA and reclaimed all long-term moving averages. It is forming a stage-one flat base, with the pivot of $84.35 (+3%). Next support is at its 50-DMA (-1.7%), followed by the confluence of its 21- and 200-DMA (-2.1%).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets pared losses in a shortened trading week, ending in the green after three consecutive weeks of declines. The Stoxx 600 rose 4.03% from the previous Friday’s close, finding support near the 486 level, a price point where the index had previously consolidated before its early 2024 rally. However, it faces significant overhead resistance with the declining 21-DMA (2% above) and the long-term 200-DMA (3% above). Markets reacted to the early set of Q1 earnings, the 25 bps rate cut by the European Central Bank and the ongoing developments in the tariff environment. We expect markets to remain choppy over the upcoming weeks and recommend that investors remain cautious and move to the sidelines. Reduce exposure or book profits in names that are breaking logical levels of support.
  • On the sectoral front, all sectors closed in the green last week. Banks and Oil and Gas were the top performing sectors, gaining 6.1% each, followed by Retail (+5.7%), Utilities and Telecom (+4.9% each). The lagging sectors were Chemicals (+2.1%), Technology (+1.4%), and Health Care (+1.0%). Despite the week’s rally, most sectors remain under pressure. Only defensive sectors such as Utilities, Food and Beverage, and Telecom are trading above their key moving averages.
  • Constructive setups within these sectors include Utilities: Veolia Environ (VIE.FR; VIE FP), Centrica (CAN.GB, CAN LN), and Elia Group (ELI.BE, ELI BB). Food and Beverage/Retail: Ahold Delhaize (AD.NL; AD NA), Jde Peet (JDPS.NL; JDEP NA), Lindt (LISP.CH; LISP SW), Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PT), Cranswick (CWK.GB; CWK LN), Kesko (KESK.FI; KESKOB FH), FL-rated Dino Polska (DIP.PL; DNP PW), Royal Unibrew (RBR.DK; RBREW DC), Carsberg (CAB.DK; CARLB DC), and Marks and Spencer (MKS.GB; MKS LN). Telecom: Telia (TEL.SE; TELIA SS), BT Group (BT,A.GB; BT/A LN), and Kpn Kon (KPN.NL; KPN NA).
  • Among market movers, Siemens Energy (+20.4%) led gains after reporting a beat-and-raise Q2 print. The stock is actionable as it breaks out of a double-bottom base. Distribution giant Bunzl was among the worst performers last week, losing over 23% after issuing a weak trading update amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Leadership within the European markets remains narrow as only 39% of the stocks trade above the 100-DMA while those trading above the 50-DMA is further scarce at 32%.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Premier Foods (PFD.GB; PFD LN), Spie (SPIE.FR; SPIE FP), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM IM).
    • No Addition or Removal.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 remains in a Rally Attempt. While Monday’s strong price action—closing up 2.69%—was encouraging, volume came in lower than the previous trading session and fell short of the threshold for a follow-through day (FTD).
  • Major European country indices have posted gains since Monday as trade war concerns eased and investor attention shifted toward Q1 earnings. However, volume trends were mixed across the region. Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands all closed on higher volume, qualifying for valid FTDs and subsequently were moved to a Confirmed Uptrend. In contrast, the remaining indices, despite strong price gains, advanced on lighter volume and therefore remain in Rally Attempt status. Of the 16 indices we monitor, six are now in a Confirmed Uptrend, including Denmark, which marked its FTD last Thursday.
  • All sectors advanced over the past five trading days, led by Banks, Construction, and Retail. Defensive Staples lagged on a relative basis. The Personal & Household Goods sector was the weakest performer, following a decline in LVMH (LVMH.FR) shares after its Q1 trading update revealed a larger-than-expected drop in sales, driven by softer demand for luxury goods in both China and the U.S.
  • Despite the recent broad-based rally, we remain cautious about issuing aggressive buy recommendations. Many stocks are still in the process of forming technical bases following recent market weakness, and leadership remains narrow. We continue to advocate for a selective and gradual approach to increasing exposure. In the report attached, we present a list of stocks currently on our watchlist, as they exhibit strong fundamentals alongside emerging technical strength.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP):The index declined ~6% in the past one week and breached all its key moving averages on above average volume. It is 10% off highs. Next support is at $75.7 (-1%), followed by $72.9 (-5%).

Best-performing IGs: Good improvement in the Industry Group Rank of Food-packaged over the last four and eight weeks, with the rank improving to 49 from 144 and 168, respectively. Beverages-Non-Alcoholic, Food-Misc. Preparation and Cosmetics/Personal care were other Industry Groups which showed improvement in the rank over the past four and eight weeks

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

The retaliatory U.S. tariffs resulted in the European markets plunging 9.2% last week. The Stoxx 600, which is in a Downtrend, has breached all its key support levels and is now testing support around its early August 2024 levels. Next support is at 462, 6% below Friday’s close. The possibility of a tariff war emerging between two of the largest economies has spiked after China introduced counter-tariffs against the U.S. As a result, the European stock market volatility index witnessed its biggest one-day jump in over two days.
Historically, when European markets experienced sharp two-day selloffs greater than 9%—such as during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020; -10.8%), Brexit (June 2016; -10.9%), and the 2008 Financial Crisis (October 2008; -9.4%)—they subsequently rallied between 18% and 26% over the following 12 months. The exception was Black Monday (October 1987; -9.2%), where markets ended lower one year later. However, aside from the Brexit episode, each instance saw a further drawdown of 18–25% before bottoming, with the time to reach the bottom ranging from just over a week (COVID-19) to several months (Financial Crisis). This historical precedent suggests that while long-term recoveries are possible, the short-term downside risk remains elevated. As such, we advise investors to remain cautious and stay on the sidelines until there is greater evidence that markets have stabilized and found a durable bottom.
Leadership remains narrow, with a low number of breakouts, the number of stocks setting up their stage-one bases is at the lowest level since February 2023, and stocks trading near their pivot level are at the lowest level since late October 2022. Around 10% of the stocks in the Stoxx 600 registered a gain last week. Only ~37% of the stocks are trading above their 200-DMA, 32% above their 100-DMA, and 22% above their 50-DMA.
Among the major indices, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, and the U.K.’s FTSE fell 7–8% last week and are all trading below their 200-DAM support level. All European markets are now in a downtrend. The risk to the downside remains elevated. On the breach of the 200-DMA, the DAX could test support at 18,792 (5% below the current level), where the index had previously consolidated between mid-October and late-November 2024

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose ~4% in the past one week and reclaimed all its key moving averages. It is trading 2% below the pivot of its recent stage-one flat base, which is its immediate resistance level. Next resistance is at $84.35 (+3%). Support is at the confluence of its 10- and 21-DMA (-1.5%), followed by the confluence of its 100- and 200-DMA (-2%)