Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets declined for the third straight week, with major indices pulling back and currently at or below their 50-DMA. The Stoxx 600 is in a Downtrend and is below its 50-DMA. We recommend taking some profits in extended names. If looking to add risk, consider defensive stocks (low beta; top O’Neil stability factor) showing a rising RS line.
  • Most of the 11 O’Neil sectors closed in the red. Staples outperformed while Technology and Energy declined the most. Key trends observed since the market pullback accelerated: short-term momentum in Technology continued to deteriorate further; small-caps lagged (-1.7% for the week) vs. large-caps (-1.1%); and Value (-0.8%) led on a relative basis vs. Growth (-1.5%). Over one month, Growth in Europe is now down 3.7% vs. Value down only 0.1%.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20): As breadth narrowed significantly, the number of breakouts in Europe hit extreme lows. Several defensive ideas that are currently basing are showing improving technical characteristics such as a rising RS line. It includes L’Oreal (OR@F.FR) in Consumer Staples, Spire Healthcare (SPI.GB) in Health Care and Telecom stocks such as Tele2 (TEL2.SE) and Telekom Austria (TKA.AT).
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG NA, support at the 100-DMA), Beiersdorf (BEIX.DE), and Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS).
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.CH).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points:
• European markets declined for the third straight week, with major indices pulling back and currently at or below their 50‐DMA. The Stoxx 600 is in a
Downtrend and is below its 50‐DMA. We recommend taking some profits in extended names. If looking to add risk, consider defensive stocks (low beta;
top O’Neil stability factor) showing a rising RS line.
• Most of the 11 O’Neil sectors closed in the red. Staples outperformed while Technology and Energy declined the most. Key trends observed since the
market pullback accelerated: short‐term momentum in Technology continued to deteriorate further; small-caps lagged (‐1.7% for the week) vs. large‐ caps (‐1.1%); and Value (‐0.8%) led on a relative basis vs. Growth (‐1.5%). Over one month, Growth in Europe is now down 3.7% vs. Value down only
0.1%.
• Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top‐rated names with best technical setups ‐ refer pages 9–20): As breadth narrowed significantly, the number
of breakouts in Europe hit extreme lows. Several defensive ideas that are currently basing are showing improving technical characteristics such as a
rising RS line. It includes L’Oreal (OR@F.FR) in Consumer Staples, Spire Healthcare (SPI.GB) in Health Care and Telecom stocks such as Tele2 (TEL2.SE)
and Telekom Austria (TKA.AT).
• European Focus List Update:
 Actionable names include Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG NA, support at the 100‐DMA), Beiersdorf (BEIX.DE), and Alfa Laval
(ALF.SE; ALFA SS).
 Addition: None.
 Removal: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.CH).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets pulled back below their short-term moving averages last week, amid increased volatility following tension in the Middle East. The Stoxx 600 along with other major indices are trading below their 21-/50-DMA with elevated distribution days. Expect consolidation or further pull back in the event of a break below key support levels. We recommend taking some profits in extended names and reducing risk in stocks that are breaching key support levels. Add risk in stocks that are part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper bases with a strong and rising RS line.
  • O’Neil Sector Rotation: Short-term momentum continues to improve among Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Retail, Transportation, and Utilities. Technology, Health Care, and Staples have shown further decline in their short-term momentum. Cyclicals, which is in the leading quadrant, exhibited deterioration in its short-term momentum.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS GR), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS), Partners Group Holding (PGHN.CH; PGHN SW), Trainline Plc. (TRN.GB; TRN LN), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI FP).
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: None.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets took a pause and closed in the red for the first week since late January. The Stoxx 600 and few other indices breached their 21-DMA with an elevated distribution day count on Friday and were shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure. We recommend that investors book some profits in extended names. Add risk in stocks that are part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper bases with a strong and rising RS line.
  • Except Energy and Basic Material, all sectors closed in the red. Energy led the gains, while Consumer Staple and Retail led the decline. On our rotation graph, Capital Equipment and Basic Material have been showing strong improvement in their short-term momentum. Despite being in the worst quadrant, Energy is showing improvement in short-term momentum. Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Staple have shown a decline in their short-term momentum. Consumer Cyclical, which is in the leading quadrant, has taken a pause in its short-term momentum.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):
    • Basic Materials: Vicat (VCT.FR).
    • Energy: Totalenergies (FP.FR), Maurel et Prom (MAU.FR).
    • Financial: Jyske Bank (JYS.DK), Abn Amro (ABN.NL).
    • Health Care: Vimian Group (VIMG.SE).
    • Technology: Vusiongroup (SESL.FR).
    • Transportation: Stolt-Nielsen (SNI.NO).
  • European Focus List update:
    • Actionable names include BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.NL; BESI NA), Tbc Bank Group (TBCG.GB; TBCG LN), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS GR), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI FP), Trainline (TRN.GB; TRN LN), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS), Partners Group (PGHN.CH; PGHN SW), and Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM GR).
    • Addition: BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.NL).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Key points:

  • European markets added ~60 bps and gained for the tenth consecutive week. The Stoxx 600 and 12 other indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend. All major indices closed the first quarter of the year strongly, with the Stoxx 600 up 7%, the CAC 40 up 8.7%, and the DAX up 10.3%. Expectations of rate cuts are driving market sentiment. The Stoxx 600 held on to its 10-DMA and has been trading along it since the end of January.
  • All sectors closed in the green last week, with Transportation, Utility, and Retail leading the gains. Cyclicals, Capital Equipment, and Technology ended flat. On our rotation graph, Cyclical, Capital Equipment, Retail, Financial, and Basic Material have been showing strong improvement in their short-term momentum. Tech, Energy, Utility, Staples, and Health Care have shown a decline in their short-term momentum.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (top–rated names with best technical setups – refer to pages 8–19):
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC IM), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), IMCD Group (IMCD.NL; IMCD NA), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS), Straumann Holdings (STMN.CH; STMN SW), Partners Group (PGHN.CH; PGHN SW), Sage Group (SGE.GB; SGE LN).
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: None.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index continues to trade along its rising 21-DMA. It broke above $75.05 price level and is sitting 2%
below pivot. It is clearing the resistance at $76. A decisive break above $77.8 should be bullish for the sector. However, it continues to
lag the broader market, with the RS line remaining in a downtrend with weak technical ratings.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 is in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days. The index continued its upward trajectory last week, closing up 1.0%, the ninth consecutive week of gains—the longest winning streak since 2018.
  • All groups ended in positive territory but Health Care, Travel & Leisure, Food & Beverage, and Personal & Household goods. The latest, down over 2% for the week, was hit by the Kerring profit warning, sending the stock 16% lower. Best performing groups included Real Estate, Retail, and Basic Resources.
  • From our rotation chart, short-term momentum in the Technology and Staples sectors continued to deteriorate further while improving among Cyclicals, Financials, Retail, and Basic Materials.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–21):

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index continued its strong run of recent weeks. It broke above $75.05 price level and is sitting 2%
below pivot. Immediate resistance is at $76. A decisive break above $77.8 should be bullish for the sector. However, it continues to lag
the broader market, with RS line remaining in a downtrend with weak technical ratings.