Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European market has had a strong rally since November. Major markets, such as the Stoxx 600, CAC 40, and DAX, are either at or have made new 52-week highs. The Stoxx 600 was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend last week. Among the 16 markets covered in this report, a majority are now in a Confirmed Uptrend and the average distribution is low at 2.5 on average. Thus, we recommend adding risk in leading industry groups that are breaking out of proper bases with strong and rising RS lines.
  • Sectors: Most sectors either closed in the green or flat. Cyclical and Utility led the gains, while Energy declined the most. On our rotation graph, as mentioned last week, we are seeing improvement in short-term momentum in lot of sectors, such as Retail, Staple, Transportation, Financial, and Cyclical. Energy and Tech, which were in the best quadrant, showed decline in their short-term momentum. 
  • Sectors Score cards – Stocks of interest:  Informa (INF.GB), Addtech (ADDT.SE), Hermes (RMS.FR), B&M (BME.GB). Refer from page 9 to 21.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Sanlorenzo (SANL.IT; SL IM), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Asm International (ASIN.NL; ASM NA), Inditex (IND.ES; ITX:SM), WISE A (WISE.GB; WISE: LN), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Ypsomed Holding (YPSN.CH; YPSN:SW), and Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP).
    • Addition: Sanlorenzo (SANL.IT)
    • Removal: Technip Energies (TECE.FR); Games Workshop (GAW.GB).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets had three consecutive weeks of gains, adding to the November rally. The major indices witnessed their best monthly gains in November since January 2023. Cooling inflation and expectations that interest rates have peaked are driving the market. Major indices, along with the Stoxx 600, have had a strong rally and are testing their earlier resistance levels. We recommend adding risk in stocks in leading industry groups that are breaking out of proper bases with a strong and rising RS line.

 

  • Most sectors either closed in the green or flat. Transportation, Technology, and Capital Equipment led the gains, while Health Care and Consumer Staple declined the most. On our rotation graph, we are seeing improvement in the short-term momentum of many sectors including Retail, Consumer Staple, Transportation, and Consumer Cyclical. Energy and Technology, which were in the best quadrant, showed a decline in their short-term momentum. 
  • Sector Score Cards (Pages from 8 to 19) – Actionable ideas (stocks trading at a buy point) displaying top-notch fundamental quantitative metrics include:  Publicis (PUB.FR), Konecranes (KCR1.FI), Schneider (QT@F.FR), Stellantis (STLT.IT), Sanlorenzo (SANL.IT) and ASM International (ASIN.NL).
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Asm International (ASIN.NL; ASM:NA), Inditex (IND.ES; ITX:SM), WISE A (WISE.GB; WISE:LN), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Ypsomed Holding (YPSN.CH; YPSN:SW), and Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP).
    • Addition: Asm International (ASIN.NL), Inditex (IND.ES), WISE A (WISE.GB).
    • Removal: None

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points:
 European markets gained for two consecutive weeks, adding to the November rally. Anticipation of easing monetary policy is aiding market sentiment and
major indices, along with the Stoxx 600, have retaken their 200‐DMA last week. The Stoxx 600 remains in
a Rally Attempt, even as many country indices had
a follow‐through day in the past two weeks. Since it has been able to hold above its 200‐DMA, we look for the index to test its next level of resistance at
462–464, followed by 470 (2.3% away).
 We recommend adding risk in leading industry groups that are breaking out of proper bases with strong and rising RS lines. Breadth in the market has
continued to improve, as reflected by quality names breaking out of consolidation, such as Inditex (IND.ES), Aena (AENA.ES), or WISE (WISE.GB)
– Please
refer to our Sector Score Cards for the full list by sectors.
 Most sectors either closed in the green or flat. Consumer Retail and Staple led the gains, while Utility declined the most.
 On our rotation graph, we saw the sectors that have been in the best quadrant take
a pause in their momentum, while Cyclical, Staple, and Retail,
which were lagging, showed positive improvement in their short‐term momentum.
 European Focus List Update:
 Actionable namesinclude Adidas(ADSX.DE; ADS GR), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Ypsomed Holding (YPSN.CH; YPSN SW), and Safran (SGM.FR;
SAF:FP).
 Addition: Adidas (ADSX.DE)
 Removal: None

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Last week, European markets closed with significant gains for the second consecutive week, following optimism around cooling inflation and a possible softening in the monetary policy outlook. The Stoxx 600 logged a weekly gain of 2.8%, breaking above its 21- and 50-DMA. It is now testing its next level of resistance at the 200-DMA.
  • Breadth improved significantly last week, as the number of stocks breaking out, i.e., clearing consolidation, increased considerably. Refer to Sector Cards for specific actionable names. Should the index reclaim its 200-DMA and breadth continue to improve, we would recommend adding/increasing positions in leading stocks breaking out of early-stage bases.
  • Sectors were marginally-in-the-red to strongly-in-the-green. Capital equipment, cyclicals, financials, and basic material led the gains while staples and energy declined the most. On our rotation chart, staples and cyclicals showed improvement in short-term momentum.  Energy and tech are in the best quadrant but have taken a pause in short-term momentum.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.GB; RR/LN), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Ferrari (Mil) (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), and Ypsomed Holding (YPSN:CH; YPSN:SW).
    • Addition: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.GB), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE)
    • Removal: None

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index continues to stage a recovery. After regaining its 21-DMA, it has steadily climbed back to its
declining 50-DMA and is facing resistance there. However, it continues to lag the broader market, with the RS line declining in the last
few sessions with weak technical ratings.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • Last week, European market had its best weekly gains since March 2023. Softer jobs data added to the risk-on sentiments that the end of the rate hike cycle could be near. In Europe, weak earnings are still weighing on market sentiments. Most of the major indices, along with the Stoxx 600, had a strong week, retaking their 21-DMA. However, all major indices are still below their 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA, which are likely to act as overhead resistance going forward.
  • We recommend a cautious approach to adding risk until the major indices retake their 200-DMA. Look for ideas in leading industry groups that are breaking out of proper bases with a strong and rising RS line.
    • Among the sectors, Consumer Cyclical and Technology led the rally, while Energy led the decline.
    • On our rotation chart, Energy and Technology are in the best quadrant and holding up relatively better. All other sectors are either flat or showing a decline in its short-term momentum.
  • Stocks of interest from Sector Score Cards (Refer from page 8 to 20): in Cap Equipment – Mycronic (MYCR.SE) and Munters (MUGR.SE); in Financials – Swissquote (SQN.CH).
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Banco Bpm (BP.IT; BAMI:IM), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Ferrari (Mil) (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Hemnet Group (HEMN.SE; HEM:SS), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP).
    • Addition: None
    • Removal: None

Consumer Discretionary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

O’Neil Industry Group Rank: A technical metric (ranging from 1 to 197, with 1 signifying the best group) that evaluates above‐ average stocks within each group, along with the entire group’s performance compared to others. It employs separate weightings
for different periods. Among the 11 industry groups we cover in the consumer discretionary space, the majority ranked poorly
(>100), indicating investor concerns about reduced consumer spending in the current inflationary environment.