Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600’s 52 bps bounce off the rising 10-DMA on Friday concluded a week of choppy trading and the ninth consecutive week of gains. The Stoxx 600 registered a new all-time high of 557.96 on Tuesday before retreating 91 bps on Wednesday and 20 bps on Thursday as investors digested mixed corporate earnings against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs and German elections. The index is extended from near-term moving averages with the 21-DMA 1.8% below and 50-DMA 4.9% below. Markets could consolidate here, allowing the moving averages to catch up.
  • Breadth of leadership continues to narrow, as the number of stocks forming their stage-one base declined to the lowest level since late March 2024 (the index lagged from highs of April 2, 2024, to April 19, 2024, declining 1.8%). The number of breakouts dropped sharply last week, while the number of failed bases increased over the last two weeks. Stocks trading near their pivot is at the lowest level since mid-November. Hence, we recommend that investors take a cautious approach here and remain selective while adding names. Reduce exposure to names breaking below logical support levels and only take positions in names breaking out of proper bases from leading sectors.
  • All European markets continue trading above their 21-DMA, except Denmark, which is weighed down by Novo Nordisk’s struggles. All three major indices declined last week, with the DAX dropping 1%, CAC retreating 29 bps, and FTSE declining 84 bps. The DAX, now 2.8% off highs, is attempting to find support at the 10-DMA with additional support at the 21-DMA, 144 bps below. The CAC keeps finding support at the 10-DMA and is now 86 bps off highs. The FTSE breached the 10-DMA (95 bps above) and is now testing support at the 21-DMA. While the 50-DMA is 2.5% below, the index has solid support between 8,584 and 8,501 (1.3% below).
  • Banking, Financial Services, and Telecommunication remained the leading sectors, making new highs last week. Defense remains a strong theme in Europe, with ex-FL-rated Saab (SAAB.SE; +21%) leading gains last week and breaking out of a stage-one consolidation. Konsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO; +16.2%), Leonardo (LDO.IT; +11%), Thales (CSF.FR; +10.2%), and Dassault Aviation (AM@F.FR; +6.9%) were other leading names in this sector. Mining, Chemicals, Autos, and Technology also trade above their key near-term moving averages. The Stoxx 600 Health Care was the best performing sectoral index last week, led by a 13% gain in Novo Nordisk last week, gaining 2.6% and bouncing off the rising 21-DMA. It is now testing overhead resistance from the 200-DMA. Among the laggards, Stoxx 600 Retail and Travel and Leisure declined 3% each last week. Travel and Leisure breached the near-term moving averages but is finding support at the 100-DMA (0.8% below).
  • EFL Update: Actionable: Pandora (PND.DK; PNDORA DC), Hugo Boss (BOSSX.DE; BOSS GR), Vimian Group (VIMG.SE; VIMIAN:SS), Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB; FLTR:LN), and Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR). Addition: Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC IM). Removal: Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA SS).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose 0.4% last week, and reclaimed its 100-DMA on above average volume. It is currently bouncing off the 100-DMA following a drop in the previous session. It is forming a stage-one flat base and is 3% to the pivot of $83.3. Support is at its 10-DMA (-0.9%), followed by its 200-DMA (-1.5%).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European indices continued their uptrend last week. Ten indices, including Germany and the U.K., hit a 52-week high and are trading constructively above short-term moving averages. France continued to trade higher after retaking all key moving averages in mid-January and is just 1% away from its 52-week high. Finland and Norway are also trading 1–2% below their respective 52-week high. Portugal recently retook its 200-DMA and is trading just 5% off highs. Denmark is the only country trading below 50- and 200-DMA, 33% off 52-week highs with strong resistance at the declining 21-DMA. Most sectors closed higher except Health Care and Utility.
  • Most sectors closed higher, led by Retail (+4.1%) and Consumer Cyclical (+3.8%). Capital Equipment, Technology, Basic Material, and Transportation closed with a gain of 2–3.5%. Staples, Financial, and Energy also gained 1.2–1.6%. Health Care lagged the most, declining 1.4% followed by Utility (-0.8%).
  • On our rotation graph, most sectors exhibited positive momentum in the last week. Financial and Capital Equipment continue to show positive momentum in the last two weeks after exhibiting stalling action in the prior few weeks. Consumer Cyclical joined Financial and Capital Equipment in the best quadrant in the last week. Energy, Basic Material, and Technology maintained its strong positive momentum during the week. Transportation and Retail showed positive short-term momentum after a short period of underperformance. Health Care and Technology remained in the worst quadrant but are showing improving short-term momentum. Consumer Staple, Health Care, and Technology were the only sectors that exhibited negative short-term momentum.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Boss (Hugo) (Xet) (BOSSX.DE; BOSS:GR), Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN:SW), Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Rolls Royce Holdings (RR.GB; RR/:LN), and EQT (EQT.SE; EQT:SS).
    • Addition: Moncler (MONC.IT).
    • Removal: Alfa Laval (ALF.SE).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose 1.9% last week, reclaiming its 50- and 200-DMA, and is currently testing resistance at its
100-DMA. It is forming a stage-one flat base and is 3% to the pivot of $83.3. Support is at its 200-DMA (-1%), followed by its 21-DMA
(-2%)
Best-performing IGs: Good improvement in the Industry Group Rank of Tobacco over the last four weeks, with the rank improving to
53 from 97. Decent improvement in the Industry Group Rank of Beverages- Non-Alcoholic with the Rank improving to 91 from 110
over the last eight weeks. Food-Misc preparations was another Industry Groups which has shown improvement in the rank over the
past four weeks.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx600 rose 60 bps last week, breaking into new highs on Thursday, before settling and taking a pause on Friday. This marked its seventh straight week of advance and is now extended from its rising 21-DMA (3% below) and 50-DMA (5% below). Investors are optimistic about European markets as they digested earnings and the Bank of England made its first interest cut on Thursday, with a dovish approach expected ahead. We expect the index to settle near highs, forming a tight area, allowing the near-term averages to catch up.
  • European markets are trading at an attractive valuation compared with the U.S. The Stoxx 600 trades at ~14x 12M forward earnings while the S&P 500 (22x) and Nasdaq 100 (27x) trade at significantly richer valuations. Earnings growth in the region is also at an inflection point as FactSet expects the Stoxx600 EPS to grow at 7.7% in 2025, up from just 2.6% in 2024. The European Commission met business and industry leaders to discuss broad changes to elements of its Green Deal, which will go into effect starting this year, enabling competitiveness with China and the U.S.
  • However, as beaten down shares have started to stage their recovery, pockets of leadership are still limited to luxury, banking and aerospace and defense. While ~75% of the stocks on the Stoxx600 now trade above their 50-DMA, less than 60% have reclaimed their long-term 200-DMA. A key positive observation is steady decline in number of failed bases to early October levels.
  • On a sectoral front, Basic Material saw the sharpest rise last week, bouncing off its near-term moving averages but faces stiff overhead resistance near its 200-DMA. The Financial Services sectoral index is settling near its highs while the Banking index bounced off the rising 10-DMA to new highs on heavy volume on Thursday. The Telecom sector climbed 2.4% last week along its rising 10-DMA and continues making new highs. Technology, Oil & Gas, and Travel & Leisure are other areas of strength, which are trading constructively. Health Care advanced last week, rallying up to its 200-DMA before taking a pause. Utility, Retail, Chemical, Auto, and Food and Beverage remain under pressure and face significant overhead supply
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN:SW), Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Adyen (ADYE.NL; ADYEN:NA), Eqt (EQT.SE; EQT:SS),Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), Rolls Royce Holdings (RR.GB; RR/:LN), and Hugo Boss (BOSSX.DE; BOSS:GR). Additions: Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN SW); Removals: None.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index declined 0.4% last week. It fell after hitting resistance at its 50-DMA breaking below the short-term moving averages again. It is currently testing support at its 21-DMA, and has next support at its recent low of $75.8 (-3.6%).

Best-performing IGs: Decent improvement in the Industry Group Rank of Soap & Cleaning preparations with the Rank improving from 155 to 140 over the last eight weeks. Cosmetics/Personal Care was another Industry Groups which has shown improvement in the rank over the past four weeks.

Worst-performing IGs: Tobacco has been the worst-performing group in the last eight weeks, with Group Rank declining to 94 from 50. Food-Confectionary and Beverages-Alcoholic are the other Industry Groups with poor Group Ranks.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European indices remained constructive last week. Six indices including Germany, the U.K., Sweden, Spain, Switzerland, and Norway closed at a new all-time high, while Austria printed a new 52-week high. France, Ireland, Finland, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands are trading 1%– 4% off 52-week highs. Denmark is the only country trading below all key moving averages, 30% off 52-week highs. Meanwhile, Portugal is trading 7% off 52-week highs, below its 200-DMA, but above its 50-DMA. Most sectors closed in the green except Capital Equipment, which closed flat.
  • We recommend adding risks as indices are trading constructively and breaking into new 52-week highs. Focus on quality O’Neil ideas within strong industry groups and emerging out from proper bases or bouncing off key support levels.
    • Most sectors closed higher, led by Retail (+3.8%), and Utility (+3.1%). The rest of the sectors gained 1.7%–3.3%. Basic Materials (+0.5%), Consumer Cyclicals (+0.4%), and Capital Equipment (+0.0%) underperformed during the week. The rest of the sectors gained 1.3%– 2.5%.
    • On our rotation graph, sectoral performance was mixed. Energy, Materials, and Cyclicals exhibited strong short-term positive momentum. Retail, Staples, Transportation, and Utility showed negative short-term momentum. Health Care and Technology remained in the worst quadrant, but both are showing improving short-term momentum. Financial and Capital Equipment remained in the best quadrant and continue to exhibit stalling action.
  • European Focus List Update:

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The European markets advanced 1.2% last week and broke into new highs behind strong corporate earnings. Investors also took cues from President Trump’s speech at Davos where he called for reduction of global interest rates, banking regulation and lower oil prices. We are becoming more positive on European equities, as new leadership emerges in sectors like Banking, Capital Equipment, Luxury and Health Care. While the number of breakouts last week surged to the highest level since late September, leadership remains limited to a select outperforming sectors. Hence, we recommend investors start adding positions in names breaking out of proper bases from these leading sectors.
  • The Stoxx600 was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend this week as it reclaimed the high of a prior rally and is now 1.7% above its 10-DMA and 2.8% above its 21-DMA. The converging 100-DMA and 200-DMA, 3% below, offer further close support 3% below. Among the Stoxx600 sub-indices, Financial Services and Banking are trading near new highs while Travel and Leisure has bounced off its 100-DMA and reclaimed its key moving averages. Chemicals and Health Care is rallying off its lows and reclaimed its key short-term moving averages. However, it still has to overcome plenty of overhead resistance with additional supply from the 100-DMA and 200-DMA. Technology had staged a sharp recovery, rallying 16% from mid-November lows, to reclaim its key moving averages. However, the DeepSeek update over the weekend could result in distribution, with the sector testing support at the 200-DMA (2% below), followed by the 50-DMA (4% below) and 100-DMA (5% below).
  • Burberry Group (BRBY.GB; +18.4%), Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFXX.DE; +16.7%), Siemens Energy (ENRX.DE; +16.3%), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; +15.4%) and Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SE; +14.4%) were the top 5 leading stocks last week. Puma (PUMX.DE; -20.8%), Oersted (DEN.DK; -14.6%), Inchcape (INCH.GB; -14.0%), Ericsson (SL@G.SE; -10.6%) and Delivery Hero (DHER.DE; -10.4%) were the worst performing names amongst the laggards after reporting poor earnings.
  • European Focus List Update: