Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose 2.6% flat this week and reclaimed all its key moving averages. It is now testing resistance at $83.2. It is forming a stage-one flat base with the pivot of $84.35 (+2%). Support is at its 21-DMA (-1%), followed by its 50-DMA (-2%).
Author: Tristan d'Aboville
Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product.
Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings.
Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson.
Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA).
A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index traded flat this week and remained below all its key moving averages. It is facing stiff resistance from its declining 21-DMA, which has crossed below its 50- and 100-DMA. Support is at $79.7 (-1%), followed by $77.2 (-4%).
European Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- European indices closed negative last week pulling back sharply from their recent 52-week highs. The U.K. (-0.4%) and Spain (-0.8%) outperformed in a weak global market backdrop, while Denmark declined 18%, making a new 52-week low due to significant underperformance in the Health Care names. The remaining markets declined 1–4%. The U.K. remains constructive above short-term moving averages and is just 1% off 52-week highs. Along with the U.K., only four markets, including Austria, Portugal, Spain, and Belgium, are trading above their 50-DMA, each 2–3% off highs. Italy, Germany, Ireland, Finland, and Norway breached their 50-DMA during the week, while France breached both its 50- and 200-DMA. The Netherlands also breached its 50-DMA while Switzerland continues to face resistance at the 50-DMA.
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index fell ~0.5% in the past one week and breached its 50-DMA. It broke below the 200-DMA as well during the week but has now reclaimed the moving average on above-average volume. It is facing stiff resistance at its 50-DMA. Support is at its 200-DMA (-1%), followed by $79.8 (-2%).
European Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- European indices mostly closed positive last week and continue to trade constructively at/near 52-week highs. Gains were led by previously lagging groups—most notably Automakers and Luxury—which benefited from rising hopes of a U.S.–E.U. tariff agreement, officially confirmed over the weekend. In contrast, Technology fell over 2%, dragged lower by Semiconductors following Intel’s commentary on weaker Capex trends.
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose ~1.9% in the last five trading sessions and is trading along its 50- and 200-DMA. It is trading in a flat consolidation with a pivot of $84 (+3%). Support is at its 200-DMA (-1%). We recommend investors remain patient as the index continues to trade sideways without proper direction. Focus on O’Neil stocks that are breaking out from a proper base.
European Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- The Stoxx 600 (EXSA.DE) has successfully held its June 23 low and remains in a Rally Attempt. Over the past week, the index continued to consolidate along
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index fell ~1.6% in the past one week and breached its 100- and 200-DMA on above average volume. It is trading below all its key moving averages. Support is at $79.3 (-1%), followed by $77.2 (-3.7%).
Best-performing IGs: Food-Packaged and Food-Confectionary were the Industry Groups which showed improvement over the last four weeks, with the rank improving to 112 from 152 and 108 from 127, respectively. Food-Misc Preparation and Beverages-Alcoholic were the other Industry Groups which showed improvement over the last few weeks. Tobacco remains the top rated Industry Group with a Rank of #19.
Worst-performing IGs: Food- Meat Products has been the worst-performing group in the last eight weeks, with Group Rank declining to 162 from 71. Beverages-Non-Alcoholic also saw the Industry Group Rank declining to 77 from 42 in the last eight weeks. Soap & Cleaning Preparations and Food-Meat Products are the lowest rated Industry Groups with Group Ranks of #163 and #162.
Consumer Cyclical (XLY): The discretionary index traded flat during the week and is testing support at its near-term moving averages. Next level of support at its converging 50 and 200-DMA. It forms a stage-two consolidation base, trading 9% from pivot. Acc/Dist Rating deteriorated below one during the week suggesting selloff. Up/Down Volume ratio weakened slightly but remains constructive. RS line is trending sideways with an RS Rating of 69. Add risk in quality names that are breaking out of proper bases or holding their logical support levels in improving industry groups.
European Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
- Last week, European indices closed mostly higher. Most European markets are trading above their short-term moving averages and are near/at their 52-week high. France, Germany, the U.K., Finland, Sweden, Austria, and the Netherlands gained 1–2%. Meanwhile, Denmark underperformed, declining ~1.1%. The index is facing heavy resistance at the 50-DMA and trading 39% off its 52-week high. Switzerland declined 0.3% and is facing resistance at the 200-DMA, while Norway fell 0.2% and is 2% off its 52-week high. Italy and Portugal declined 0.5–0.7%, after hitting a new 52-week high during the week. France’s CAC 40 retook all its key moving averages after bouncing off the 200-DMA. The index is 5% off its 52-week high.
- Last week, sector performance was mostly positive. Transportation (+2.6%) led the gains, followed by Consumer Cyclical (+2.5%) and Capital Equipment (+2.1%). Energy, Financial, Basic Material, and Technology gained 1.5–2.0%. Retail was up 0.5%. Utility (-1.3%) lagged the most, while Consumer Staple and Health Care fell less than 0.5%.
- We remain constructive on the European markets as indices continue to consolidate near their 52-week highs. Indices continue to trade constructively above their short-term moving averages, with nine major indices now in a Confirmed Uptrend.
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index fell ~0.8% in the past one week and breached its 21- and 50-DMA on above average volume. Support is at its 100-DMA (-0.2%), followed by its 200-DMA (-0.6%).
Best-performing IGs: Food-Confectionary and Food-Packaged were the only Industry Groups which showed improvement over the last four weeks, with the rank improving to 126 from 135 and 138 from 152, respectively. Tobacco remains the top rated Industry Group with a Rank of #16.
