Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Key points:

  • European majors had the best monthly gains since November 2020. They are setting up constructively for the next leg of the move to their long-term moving averages after forming a base in the last couple of months. The majors have taken out the first leg of their overhead resistances that they struggled to breach in the last few months and are now moving in the right direction for a structural change. Still, we see many levels of supply zones that need to be taken out and held going forward. Corporate earnings and Fed’s commentary that the rate hikes will slow in the near future provided some relief to the recession fears.

 

  • The market breadth is starting to show signs of improvement and leadership is emerging in their respective sectors. We recommend becoming incremental in adding risk with a focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry groups.

 

  • Transportation, Energy, and Basic Material led the rally. Positive momentum was seen across all sectors, indicating positive breadth. On our rotation chart, Retail, Tech, Health Care, and Staple showed improvement in the short-term momentum while Energy, Basic Material, and Financial continued to lag their short-term momentum (over four weeks).

 

  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable ideas: Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), Terna Energy (TEN.GR, TENERGY:GA), Serco Group (SRP.GB, SRP:LN), Rwe (Xet) (RWEX.DE, RWE:GR), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: None
  • Removal last week: None

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Cyclical (XLY): The index is has rallied above the 50-DMA but has started finding resistance at the $158 level.
RS line has started correcting with a RS Rating of 37 and A/D Rating of D, as concerns rise of a recession in the U.S.
which would affect discretionary spending power.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Key points:

  • European majors had the best weekly gains since late May. The ECB delivered its first rate hike in over a decade on Thursday, with more hikes expected in subsequent meetings. The Stoxx 600 was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend with Monday’s close as it reclaimed the previous rally high.  Last week’s move brought major indices above the consolidation range they have been building in the last four weeks. Investors look ahead to upcoming earnings that will indicate corporate resilience amid current economic headwinds.
  • We want to see the major indices hold current levels and retake their moving averages for a structural change. There are many overhead resistance levels going forward. We recommend a cautious approach to adding risk but becoming more incremental with risk is encouraged. Focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and or improving industry groups.
  • The market breadth improved with all sectors participating. Transportation, Cyclicals, and Technology led the rally.  On our rotation chart, Retail, Tech, Health Care, and Consumer Staple showed improvement in short-term momentum, while Energy, Basic Materials, and Financial continued to lag short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL,WKL:NA), Serco Group (SRP.GB, SRP:LN), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.IT, EDPR:PL), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GR, OPAP:GA), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL) and Serco Group (SRP.GB).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Cyclical (XLY): The index is trading constructively in a tight consolidation base over the past weeks, although
the volume is low. It has retaken its 21-DMA and currently sits at its 50-DMA. RS line is staring to trend higher with a RS
Rating of 35. Retaking the 50-DMA and holding the level will provide a structural change to the index.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European majors closed marginally in the red after trimming weekly losses on Friday. Softer energy prices are providing support to European markets.  The Stoxx 600 was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure following its Wednesday’s close. Friday’s move has brought the major indices back to the upper end of the consolidation range they have built in the last four weeks. Investors look ahead to the upcoming earnings that will offer insight into corporate resilience amid the current economic headwinds.

 

  • We want to see the major indices hold the current levels and retake their short-term moving averages for a structural change. There are many levels of overhead resistance going ahead. We recommend a cautious approach to adding risk but becoming more incremental with risk is encouraged. Focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry.

 

  • The sectoral moves were flat last week, with Staples leading the gains while Basic Materials and Energy led the fall. On our rotation chart, Retail, Tech, Health Care, and Staples showed improvement in their short-term momentum, while Energy, Basic Material, and Transportation continue to lag their short-term momentum (over four weeks).

 

  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.IT, EDPR:PL), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GR, OPAP:GA), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: Neoen (NEOP.FR)
  • Removal last week: None

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European majors closed in the green with the best weekly gain since May after bouncing off support levels. The Stoxx 600 was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend following Thursday’s follow-through day (FTD). The majors are trading near the upper end of the consolidation base that they have built in the last three weeks. Investors look forward to upcoming earnings that will offer insight into corporate resilience amid the current economic headwinds.
  • We want to see the major indices hold the current levels and retake their short-term moving averages for a structural change. There are many levels of overhead resistance going ahead. We recommend a cautious approach to adding risk but becoming more incremental is encouraged. Focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and or improving industry groups.
  • The market breadth improved last week, with all sectors participating in the rally. The transportation sector led the rally after being overextended to the downside. On our rotation chart, Retail, Tech, Health Care, and Staple showed improvement in the short-term momentum while Energy, Basic Materials, and Transportation continue to lag in short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.IT, EDPR:PL), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GR, OPAP:GA), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), GSK (GSK.GB, GSK:LN), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: None
  • Removal last week: Oci (OCIO.NL)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

  • European majors closed in the red after establishing a short-term support zone around 400–403 levels in the last three weeks. Investors look ahead to a busy month of earnings amid concerns over a slowing economy. Concerns are around weaker outlooks for earnings as consumer spending slows and input costs rise further. The majors are still overextended to the downside and have found some support. A technical bounce to the short-term moving averages is expected if the current support levels hold.
  • We continue to recommend a cautious approach to adding risk. Major indices are overextended to the downside and a technical bounce is expected back to their short-term moving averages or prior resistance levels. There are many levels of overhead resistance for the majors. We recommend remaining defensive with a focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and or improving industry groups.
  • Defensive sectors and Energy led the rally last week. On our rotation chart, Retail, Financials, and Tech are starting to show signs of improvement in the short-term momentum, while Energy continues to show a pause in its short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable ideas: Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GR, OPAP:GA), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), GSK (GSK.GB, GSK:LN), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PT; EDPR:PL), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC), Compass Group (CPG.GB; CPG:LN), Elisa (ELIS.FI; ELISA:FH), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN)
  • New additions last week: None
  • Removal last week: None