Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 was moved to an Uptrend Under pressure after the index breached its 50-DMA for the first time since we spotted a follow-through day on March 16. Ten markets, including key markets such as France, the U.K., and Germany, were also moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Average distribution among indices has increased significantly over the last few sessions to 4.8.
  • The lack of direction taken by major indices in recent weeks, coupled with increasing distribution, leads us to take a more cautious view in adding risk to portfolio. We recommend balancing positions toward more defensive ideas, Staple and Utility, two sectors that have been outperforming the weak market.
  • Among the 11 O’Neil sectors, only Basic Resources, Staples, Health Care, and Energy trade above their 200-DMA. Our rotation chart continues to show improving short-term momentum (over four weeks) among defensive sectors, particularly Health Care, Staple, and Utility.
  • Europe Focus List Update: We did not add new names last week and removed Axfood (AXFO.SE). Actionable names in the Focus List include Novo Nordisk (NON.DK), Verbio (VBKX.DE), and Ipsos (IPS.FR).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

 

  • The Stoxx 600 remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three dsitribution days. The index currently sits 1.9% above its 50-DMA and 1.2% below its 200-DMA, trading in a tight consolidation. Should it break these key moving averages with volume, on the upside or the downside, it could likely lead to momentum continuing till the next level of support (450 levels, 2.1% below) or resistance (475 levels, 3.2% above).
  • We continue to recommend a more aggressive stance in adding risk to the portfolio, although the number of buyable ideas is still limited as most stocks are still trading in their base. With leadership still narrow, focus on relative strength remains the core strategy in the current environment.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index has traced back to its pivot level on low volumes after breaking out of its stage-one
consolidation. RS line is trending upward as it continues to outperform the broader market amid flight to safety.
Consumer Cyclical (XLY). The index is forming the right side of a twenty-two week long stage-one consolidation, while
trading 17% below its pivot and off highs. Considering the uncertainty around the market conditions we will wait for a
decisive move above $190 to confirm the bullish trend.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Cyclical (XLY): The index has breached its 50-DMA level following the surging inflation data, hawkish
comments from the Fed Governor and concerns surrounding effects of additional sanctions on Russia. With the strong
performance from the Materials and Healthcare sectors and lowered estimates of discretionary spending power for
consumers in the upcoming quarters, money is flowing towards defensive sectors.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

  • The Stoxx 600 remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with two distribution days. The index logged a small gain of~50bps last week and continues to trade constructively above its 50-DMA. March 16’s follow-through-day remains intact. Next resistance for the index remains at its 200-DMA, which is only 1.3% away. It also has immediate support at its 50-DMA (1.6% downside risk), which corresponds to its 21-DMA.
  • Defensive sectors led the gains, with Utility up 3.5%, Health Care up 5.6%, and Food & Beverages up over 2.5% for the week. Energy and Basic Resources continue to benefit from the inflationary environment and posted positive gains this week. The rest of the market logged negative returns. Industrials, Banks, and Autos lost over 2% and are now the worst performing sectors over three months with Retail.
  • We recommend a more aggressive stance in adding risk to the portfolio, although the number of buyable ideas is still limited as most stocks are still trading in their base. With leadership still narrow, focus on relative strength remains the core strategy in the current environment.
  • European Focus List Update:
    Actionable names in the Focus List include Vantage Towers (VTWRX.DE; VTWR:GR), Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO), Ipsos (IPS.FR; IPS.FR), Verbund (VERB.AT, VER:AV), Sonova N (SOON.CH, SOON:SW), Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PT; JMT:PL), Alcon (ALC.CH; ALC:SW), and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PT; EDPR:PL).
    New additions last week: Verbio Ver. (Xet) Bioenergie (VBKX.DE) and Edp Renovaveis (EDPR.PT).
    No removals

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Cyclical (XLY). The index is forming the right side of an twenty week long stage-one consolidation, while
trading 12% below its pivot and off highs. The oversold stocks in the index are recouping their losses and top holdings are
retracing back to previous levels. A decisive move in the $190-$195 range towards the pivot is required to confirm the
bullish trend.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

  • It was a bullish yet volatile week for the European markets. The first half of the week provided some optimism about the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but it fizzled out toward the later part of the week. Economic data took a backseat, with manufacturing PMIs missing estimates. A decline in crude prices provided some support amid rising inflation.
  • As the odds of a successful follow-through day spotted on March 16 are increasing, we recommend a more aggressive stance in adding risk to the portfolio, although the number of buyable ideas is still limited as most stocks are still trading in their base. With leadership still narrow, focus on relative strength remains the core strategy in the current environment
  • Most sectors closed in the green last week, with utilities and health care leading the gains. On our rotation chart, Basic Materials, Staples, and Health Care showed improving short-term momentum (over four weeks). Financial, Retail, and Consumer Cyclical stocks continue to show weak trends in short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update:
    Actionable names in the Focus List include Vantage Towers (VTWRX.DE; VTWR:GR), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK,
    NOVOB:DC), Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO), Ipsos (IPS.FR; IPS.FR), Verbund (VERB.AT, VER:AV),
    Sonova N (SOON.CH, SOON:SW), and Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PT; JMT:PL).
    New additions last week: Sonova N (SOON.CH):
    No removals

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

  • It was a mixed week for the European markets. Surging energy prices amid inflationary concerns and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish commentary to combat inflation weighed on the market. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an ongoing concern. During the week, the economic data from the eurozone provided little support to the market, with the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI falling to a 14-month low of 57.0.
  • The Stoxx 600 remains in Confirmed Uptrend but is finding resistance at its declining 50-DMA.Thus, we maintain a cautious view on the overall market and continue to recommend a patient approach to adding risk.
  • Sectors closed mixed last week, with energy leading the gains, led by surging prices. On our rotation chart, Basic Materials, Energy, and Health Care showed improving short-term momentum (over four weeks). Financial, Retail, and Consumer Cyclical stocks continue to show weak trends in short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update:
    o Actionable names in the Focus List include Vantage Towers (VTWRX.DE; VTWR:GR), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Salmar (SALM.NO;
    SALM:NO), Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO), Ipsos (IPS.FR; IPS.FR), and Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PT; JMT:PL).
    o New additions last week: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG.NL), Vantage Towers (VTWRX.DE) and Terna Energy (TEN.GR).