Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 declined ~0.4% last week, trading below both its 50-DMA and 21-DMA and now sits ~4% below its 52-week highs. The index remains in a Rally Attempt, having held above the June 23 lows. The window remains open for a follow-through day (FTD); if one occurs, the market status would be upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. Conversely, a break below the June 23rd lows would shift the index back into a Downtrend.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose ~4% in the past one week and reclaimed all its key moving averages. It is trading 2% below the pivot of its recent stage-one flat base, which is its immediate resistance level. Next resistance is at $84.35 (+3%). Support is at the confluence of its 10- and 21-DMA (-1.5%), followed by the confluence of its 100- and 200-DMA (-2%).

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 is in a Rally Attempt. The index gained approximately 1.3% last week and is currently trading around its 50-DMA, slightly below the 21-DMA. It remains 3% off its 52-week high. Most European markets closed higher last week, with several indices rebounding from recent lows and reclaiming short-term moving averages. However, Denmark, which is in a Downtrend, underperformed significantly, falling ~4% and dropping back below all key moving averages; it now sits 40% below its 52-week high. Norway, in a Confirmed Uptrend, declined 2.7% from its all-time high and broke below its 21-DMA. The U.K. FTSE 100 (Rally Attempt) rose modestly by 0.3%. Sweden, in a Confirmed Uptrend, reclaimed its 50-DMA, while Switzerland (Rally Attempt) remains below all key moving averages, both trading 9% off their 52-week highs. France (Rally Attempt) is 7% off its 52-week high and trading around its 50- and 200-DMAs.
  • Sector performance was broadly positive, led by strong gains in Capital Equipment (+3.8%), Technology (+3.3%), and Consumer Cyclical (+2.8%). Financials, Basic Materials, and Transportation rose 1–2%. Utilities and Retail edged up 0.2% each. Energy (-3.4%) and Consumer Staples (-2.5%) were the worst-performing sectors, while Health Care declined slightly by 0.3%. On our rotation graph, Utilities and Capital Equipment continue to show positive short-term momentum and remain in the leading quadrant (long-term outperformance). Financials and Retail continue to show muted momentum.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest: Actionable, top-rated names (based on our fundamental quantitative ratings) currently breaking out of bases include Jungheinrich (JUN3X.DE), Airbus (AIRS.FR), HeidelbergCement (HEIX.DE), Holcim (HOLN.CH), Scatec (SCAT.NO), and Medicover (MEDI.SE, FL-rated). Deutsche Bank (DBKX) is also actionable but is emerging from a late-stage base.
  • European Focus List update:
    • Actionable names include Alk-Abello B (ALK.DK), Odfjell Drilling (ODDR.NO), Safran (SGM.FR), Medicover B (MEDI.SE), and Bawag Group (BWGP.AT).
    • Addition: Odfjell Drilling (ODDR.NO) and Selcuk Ecza Deposu (SLC.TR).
    • Removal: None.

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index rose ~1.1% in the past one week and reclaimed its 100- and 200-DMA. It is testing resistance at its 21-DMA. Next resistance is at its 50-DMA (+0.1%). Support is at its 10-DMA (-0.1%), followed by its 100-DMA (-0.4%)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 declined 2.5% last week and is now testing its 50-DMA support after breaching its 10- and 21-DMA the prior week. The index is in an Uptrend Under Pressure with five distribution days.
  • Most European indices closed lower, with Denmark underperforming after declining ~6%, followed by Ireland, Italy, and Switzerland, which were down >2% each. On the positive side, Norway gained ~1%, hitting a fresh 52-week high, while Finland was up 0.3%. Most of the markets have now breached their 21-DMA and are set to test support at their 50-DMA. Denmark and Ireland were shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure last week, while France was downgraded to a Downtrend. The average distribution stands elevated at 3.9.
  • Sector performance was mostly negative except Energy (+1.3%). Utility and Financial were down slightly during the week. Health Care (-3.9%) lagged the most, followed by Transportation (-2.6%), while the remaining sectors were down 1.0–2.0%.
  • We are turning increasingly more cautious on European markets as indices have breached their first level of support. The number of breakouts has declined by more than 50% in the last two weeks, with an increasing number of failed breakouts. Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. strike, could further accelerate the negative earnings revisions already observed this year. Extended areas, such as banks, appear the most vulnerable in the event of a market pullback, driven by rising geopolitical tensions. A rotation into defensive sectors could accelerate under such a scenario.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Bawag Group (BWGP.AT; BG:AV) and Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP).
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: None.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 (EXSA.DE) was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure after the index breached its 21-DMA on rising distribution. Most European markets are pulling back from 52-week highs to their short-term moving averages. Germany, Finland, Austria, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands declined 1–3%, breaching their 21-DMA and subsequently were also moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. On the positive side, Norway gained 3%, hitting a fresh 52-week high, while the U.K. and Portugal were slightly up and trending at a 52-week high. Denmark also outperformed, gaining ~2.5%, and retook resistance at 100-DMA, 35% off highs. France, Sweden, and Switzerland continue to underperform, 8–11% off 52-week highs and are set to test support at their 50-/200-DMA. The average distribution day increased to 4.2 from 3.3 last week.
  • Last week, sector performance was mostly negative except for Energy (+5.2%), Utility (+1.5%), and Health Care (+0.7%). Financial (-3.0%) lagged the most, followed by Technology (-2.6%) and Retail (- 2.2%). The remaining sectors were down 1–2%.
    • On the daily Datagraph@, the iShares Djsxx.600 Oil & Gas (EXH1.DE) is breaking out of a cup-with-handle formation; stocks of interest related to the industry include Weir Group (WEIR.GB) and Gtt (GTT.FR).
    • Form our rotation chart, momentum in lagging (over 26-weeks) Health Care continues to improve; stocks of interest include: Ypsomed (YPSN.CH) and Eurofins (EUF.FR) are currently basing on improving technical characteristics. Refer to page 14.
  • We turn cautious on the European markets as indices are extended with elevated distribution day counts and showing early signs of weakness. We recommend calculated risks when adding new ideas, as indices are breaking their first level of support. Reduce exposure in stocks that are extended or breaking key support levels/moving averages. Focus on ideas emerging from proper early-stage bases in constructive markets and sectors.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 gained ~0.8% last week, bouncing off its short-term moving averages. The index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three distribution days. Key resistance to watch is its all-time high, which is 2% above Friday’s close. A majority of European markets are in a Confirmed Uptrend, with the average number of distribution days still at three. France’s CAC 40 remains Under Pressure, although its distribution count has declined to seven. Germany’s DAX 40, trading just 0.7% off its highs, continues to be one of the region’s leading indices. Denmark was the best-performing country, though still trading 36% below its highs; the index is in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days.
  • Sector performance was mostly positive last week, with Utilities (-0.2%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.1%) the only decliners. Health Care, Transportation, Technology, and Energy gained between 2.0% and 2.5%, while the remaining sectors were up 0.5% to 1.5%.
  • From our rotation chart, Health Care continues to regain short-term momentum, bouncing from oversold levels. Top-rated names such as Ypsomed (YPSN.CH), Clariane (KORI.FR), and Swedish Orphan (SOBI.SE) are currently building the right side of a base, showing improving technical characteristics.
  • Leaderships continue to emerge from: Capital Equipment: actionable this week include Sulzer (SUN.CH) and Safran (FL constituent, SGM.FR); Financials: actionable ideas include Adyen (ADYE.NL, FL constituent), Intesa (ISP.IT), and Standard Chartered (STAN.GB).
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Actionable names include Adyen (ADYE.NL), Alk-Abello B (ALK.DK), Bawag Group (BWGP.AT), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE), Premier Foods (PFD.GB), Sap (Xet) (SAPX.DE), Safran (SGM.FR), and Wise A (WISE.GB).
    • Addition: Nemetschek (XET) (NEMX.DE) and Wise A (WISE.GB).

Removal: None.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 (EXSA.DE) remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with three distribution days. It is currently trading at immediate support along its rising 21-DMA and facing resistance at its March 3 highs, approximately 3% above current levels. Last week, European indices posted modest gains on average. Germany rose 1.5% and now sits just 1% below its 52-week high, while Italy gained 1.7%, also 1% off its high. Belgium reached a new 52-week high with a 1.4% gain. France and Switzerland saw choppy sessions, both up 0.2%; however, France remains 6% below its 52-week high with a high distribution count (8 DD), and Switzerland is still 7% off, facing resistance at its 100-DMA. Spain rose 0.3% in a volatile week, testing support at its 10-DMA and sitting 2% below its high. The Stoxx 600, along with the UK (+0.8%), Austria (+0.9%), Portugal (+0.7%), and Ireland (+1.25%), consolidated around their 10-DMAs, each trading roughly 1% below their respective 52-week highs.