Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 is in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days. The index lost 72 bps last week as investors continued to reduce exposure to the region ahead of the key election in France over the weekend. The French CAC 40 remains weak and was again among the worst performing indices, closing the prior week 9% off its 52-week high.
  • However, post the first round it was clear that despite leading the first round of the snap election, the right-wing National Rally party will struggle to gain absolute majority in following rounds and hence markets opened higher today with the CAC 40 stocks jumping 2.8% at the open.
  • Sectors: Energy led the gains last week; but our rotation chart also continues to capture short-term momentum improving among Technology and the defensive sectors like Health Care.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):
    • Basic Resources: Centamin (CEY.GB).
    • Capital Equipment: Huhtamaki (HUIF.FI), Nkt (NKT.DK, EFL constituent), VAT Group (VACN.CH – EFL constituent). Relx (REL.GB, EFL Constituent).
    • Consumer Cyclical : Technogym (TGYM.IT, EFL constituent).
    • Financial: Deutsche Boerse (DB1X.DE), Talanx Aktgsf (TLXX.DE, EFL constituent).
    • Health Care: Ambu (AMB.DK), Siegfried ‘R’ (SFZN.CH, EFL constituent).
    • Retail: Class Ohlson B (CLAS.SE), Inditex (IND.ES, EFL constituent).
    • Technology: Hemnet (HEMN.SE), Scout24 (G24X.DE).
    • Transporation: Wallenius (WWL.NO).
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Addition: H Lundbeck (HLB.DK).
    • Removal: Terna Energy (TEN.GR).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index continues to consolidate around $78 price level and is currently testing support at its 21-DMA. A
break above $78.6 should be constructive for the index . However, the RS line continues to trend downward with weak technical
ratings. A/D Rating has deteriorated in the last few weeks as the index consolidated.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets saw a slight uptick last week, recovering some of the previous week’s losses. Most markets remain below their respective 50-day moving averages (50-DMA), except for Denmark, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, which are testing support at their 21-DMA. For a more positive outlook, markets need to reclaim and consolidate above their 50-DMA without accumulating additional distribution days. All sectors, except Health Care and Consumer Staple, showed negative short-term momentum.
  • We remain cautious as most indices are below their 50-DMA. France and Italy are notably weak, trading 9–10% off their 52-week highs, with the 200-DMA as the next support level. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Switzerland maintain a constructive stance, supported by their short-term moving averages. We advise reducing positions in stocks falling below key support levels and increasing exposure to defensive sectors within stronger markets.
  • Sectors closed mostly positive last week, pairing some of the losses after a strong decline in the prior week. Retail and Financial led gains, while Health Care and Consumer Staple lagged. On our rotation graph, sectoral performance is broadly negative, with most sectors showing deterioration in short-term momentum. Defensive sectors, including Consumer Staple and Health Care, were an outlier with positive short-term momentum. Health Care continues to remain steady and has been trending in the best quadrant for the last few weeks. Technology also showed positive momentum. Cyclical joined Financial, Retail, and Utility in the worst quadrant with negative short-term momentum.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20): With most markets in a downtrend, breakout opportunities are limited. However, several stocks are basing and should be monitored for potential uptrends and leadership emergence.
    • Capital Equipment: Indutrade (INDT.SE) and Huhtamaki (HUIF.FI) are forming bases. VAT Group (VACN.CH – EFL constituent) is actionable with support at the rising 21-DMA.
    • Financial: Deutsche Boerse (DB1X.DE) is close to a pivot at €194.55, trading 1% away.
    • Healthcare: Zealand Pharma (ZEA.DK) is breaking out of a 14-week consolidation base. Ambu (AMB.DK) is overcoming a long resistance level at DKK123-125.
    • Retail: Class Ohlson B (CLAS.SE) is breaking out of a 72-day cup formation. Inditex (IND.ES, EFL constituent) is breaking above the €47 resistance level and is actionable.
    • Technology: ASML (ASML.NL, EFL constituent) is actionable. Be Semi (BESI.NL, EFL constituent) is forming the handle of a cup-with-handle formation, trading 5% from the pivot at €162.
  • European Focus List Update:
    • Addition: None.
    • Removal: None.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Key points:

  • The Stoxx 600 declined 2.4% last week, breaching its 50-DMA for the first time since April. Markets are experiencing high volatility following the European Parliament elections. With the breach of the 50-DMA, the Stoxx 600 was shifted down to an Uptrend Under Pressure. The next level of support is at the 100-DMA (1.1% below).
  • Out of the 16 key indices we cover in the region, 10 are in a Downtrend. Distribution rose to 4.3. Due to the pullback, we are seeing dwindling leadership across Europe, with the number of stocks breaking out nosediving from mid-May levels while there has been a sharp increase in failed bases. We recommend investors reduce positions in names that are breaking below logical levels of support.
  • All sectors shed their gains last week, with transportation, discretionary, and banking stocks suffering the most losses. Defensive sectors, such as Health Care and Staple, are gaining short-term momentum on a relative basis. Within the Financial space, Banks (Stoxx 600 Banks; EXV1.DE) declined over 5.5% and fell below the 50-DMA for the first time since February. The Italian FTSE MIB and the French CAC40 are heavily weighted toward banking; hence, they were the worst performers on Friday, declining 281 bps and 266 bps, respectively. The CAC40, already in a Correction, continues to trend downward and has broken below its 200-DMA. The FSTE MIB breached its 100-DMA on heavy volume and was downgraded to a Correction. 
  • European Focus List Update:

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets remained constructive last week, with the Stoxx 600 reaching an all-time intraday high. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Switzerland exhibited strong positive momentum and made fresh 52-week highs. Overall, we remain positive on the market but recommend monitoring distributions in the coming weeks following European elections this weekend, which show the rise of the far right. Political uncertainties could lead to a short-term pullback; for the Stoxx 600, watch the short-term supports at its 50-DMA (1.4% below today’s price).
  • Sectors closed mixed last week. Technology, Healthcare, and Consumer Staple led the gains, while Energy and Basic Material lagged the most. On our rotation graph, performance broadly shows fading short-term momentum among sectors. However, Consumer Staple was an outlier, with short-term momentum improving, while Technology is showing early signs of improvement after deteriorating abruptly for several weeks. 
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):
    • Consumer Disc./Retail: Inditex (IND.ES, FL constituent), Michelin (MCL.FR).
    • Consumer staple: Beiersdorf (BEIX.DE, FL constituent), Unilever (ULVR.GB), L’Oreal (OR@F.FR).
    • Financial: Talanx (TLXX.DE, FL constituent), Swissquote (SQN.CH, FL constituent).
    • Healthcare: Camurus (CAMX.SE, FL constituent), Ipsen (IPN.FR).
    • Technology: ASML (AML.NL, FL constituent), Logitech (LOGN.CH), Elmos Semi. (ELGX.DE), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE, FL constituent). 
  • European Focus List update:

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European markets pulled back to the 50-DMA, before bouncing off and attempting to reclaim their converging near-term moving averages – 10- and 21-DMA. Markets are treading water ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. Over the past week, Transportation, Energy, and Utility were the bright spots in the market, while rest of the sectors gave up gains or closed flat.
  • With the broader Stoxx 600 in a Confirmed Uptrend, we continue to be positive on the market. We recommend that investors be selective while adding positions in leading names, which are breaking out of proper bases post earnings.
  • On our rotation charts, Capital Equipment remained in the best quadrant. Transportation and Health Care gained momentum in the recent weeks. Due to the slump during the past week, Technology, along with Consumer Cyclical, is witnessing momentum faltering abruptly. Retail and Finance have started showing signs of weakness.

 

  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):

 

  • European Focus List Update:
    • Addition: NKT (NKT.DK).
    • Removal: Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB).

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Staples (XLP): The index declined 2.1% in the past week, breaching support of its 10-DMA (2% above) and 21-DMA (1%
above). It is now testing support at its 50-DMA. We recommend investors wait for the index to decisively reclaim its near-term moving
averages and hold above the $78 level before turning constructive.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 continued its ascent, reinforcing the strength in the European markets, gaining as much as 76 bps till Wednesday before paring some gains on Thursday and Friday. The index is now extended from its moving averages. Its 10-DMA is 77 bps below, and the following 21-DMA is 219 bps below. We expect the pullback to continue in the near term while the short-term moving averages catch up after the U.S. saw a sticky CPI print for April. Markets are pricing in an earnings boost to bond-sensitive sectors when the Federal Reserve pivots from its hawkish stance.
  • Most sectors closed in the green except Energy and Capital Equipment. Financial, Technology, and Transportation led the gains, while Energy and Capital Equipment lagged the most. On our rotation graph, sectoral performance is broadly positive. Financial, Health Care, and Transportation have joined Capital Equipment stocks in the best quadrant, displaying strong momentum. Technology and discretionary categories of consumer cyclical and retail are under pressure and depict lagging momentum on the charts.
  • Sector Score Cards – Stocks of Interest (Top-rated names with best technical setups – refer pages 9–20):
    • Basic Material: Givaudan (GIVN.CH).
    • Capital Equipment: Ipsos (IPS.FR).
    • Financial: Real Estate: Vonovia (VNAX.DE), Catena (CATE.SE) / Financial Services: Experian (EXPN.GB).
    • Health Care: Bachem (BANB.CH, EFL Constituent), Ambu (AMB.DK).
    • Retail: Next (NXT.GB).
    • Technology: Stocks forming the right side of a base: Infineon (IFXX.DE), Logitech (LOGN.CH), and Amadeus (AMS.IT).
    • Utilities: Fortum (FORT.FI).
  • European Focus List Update: