The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq avoided distribution this week despite pulling back just slightly off their all-time highs. The distribution day count is now very low at just two days on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq. We will be looking for the 21-DMA to act as support should the market pullback again next week. The majority of leadership ideas continue to act well, still holding above short-term support levels.
Author: Vinaya Kumar
European Focus Long
The Stoxx 600 index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend and, as of Thursday, was up 0.57% on a weekly basis. This was despite relatively quiet trading on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. Countries that showed strength this week (as of Thursday’s closing prices) include Austria (+0.91%), Italy (+1.18%), Portugal (+2%), Denmark (+1.55%), Finland (+0.95%), Norway (+1.99%), and Switzerland (+1.18%). We moved the U.K. to a Rally Attempt this week and upgraded France to a Confirmed Uptrend after it continued to trend above its 100-DMA.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index decreased 0.27% this week. It is trading 0.8% below its 200-DMA and about 4% off its 52-week high. One distribution day was added this week. The index remains Under Pressure.
Global Focus Emerging Long
Mainland Chinese markets advanced for a sixth consecutive week led by the Shenzhen index. The Shanghai index is trading near 52-week highs and 2% above its 10-WMA. The index continues to trend higher after breaking its resistance level of 3,305 a few weeks ago. Two new distribution days were added this week, bringing the total count to four in the last five weeks. We recommend a cautious approach due to an elevated number of distribution days.
Global Focus Frontier Long
US Focus Long
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Distribution fell to three days on the S&P 500 and just two days on the Nasdaq, with an additional day set to expire on both indexes next week. Leadership across multiple sectors continues to act well, with many ideas breaking out and hitting new highs. We remain positive on the general market.
European Focus Long
The Stoxx 600 made a clean break above resistance levels on Monday and continued to gain for the rest of week, except for a slight pullback on Wednesday. It was also trading lower Friday morning. As a result of Monday’s follow-through day, we recognize the start of a new uptrend. The index was up 1.67% this week as of Thursday’s closing price. There was strength across European markets, and we moved Portugal and Spain to a Rally Attempt on Tuesday and Luxembourg to a Rally Attempt on Wednesday. France and Germany are not far from changing to a Confirmed Uptrend. Notably, the U.K. has not been participating in this rally, and we moved the market to a Confirmed Downtrend on Thursday as it pulled back sharply after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision was announced.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index rose 0.29% this week and breached its 100-DMA. It is currently trading about 4% below 52- week highs. One distribution day was added this week. The index remains in Under Pressure.
Global Focus Emerging Long
Mainland Chinese markets advanced for a fifth consecutive week, led by the Shenzhen index, which gained 0.6% this week. The Shanghai index is trading near 52-week highs and 2% above its 10-WMA. One new distribution day was added this week, bringing the total count to two over the last five weeks. Both indices are trading above their 10- and 40- WMAs and remain in a Confirmed Uptrend.
