Key Points:
- Looking at stock market performance across presidential terms (1953–2025), the median S&P 500 return is +33% from inauguration to the end of the term.
- Obama, Clinton, Eisenhower, and Trump have the largest four-year gains, ranging from 70–85%.
- Only two of 13 presidents posted negative returns, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush.
- Going back further (1900–2025 on DJIA), and looking at annualized returns,
- Calvin Coolidge (1923–1929) is far and away the leader, with a 25% annualized return over one and a half terms.
- Several others including Clinton, Obama, Trump, and Reagan are bunched together from 11–15% annualized gains.
- Hoover presided over the 1929 market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression and is worst with a -25% annualized return.
