Key Points:
- Trade-weighted U.S. dollar down ~11% from January highs, breaking key 100 support, and forming a “bear flag” under the 100 level.
- Risks turning from cyclical to secular bear market—a break below 96–97 (monthly view) may confirm a secular bear.
- Over 40 years, >10% dollar drops over multiple quarters have happened 11 prior times.
- The U.S. market has a great history, with a median 21% S&P 500 gain over 14 months.
- Developed and emerging markets (history since 2002) are much better, with 39% and 68% median gains, respectively.
