ALRM – Page 5 – WILLIAM O'NEIL+CO

Market View

Posted on August 17, 2018February 1, 2019 by Raj Gupta

Market Overview

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held support along their respective 50-
DMA this week. Distribution remains relatively low at four days on the S&P 500 and three on the Nasdaq, with
one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week. Leadership remains mixed. There are a select few ideas that continue
to trade at or near highs, however the majority remain rangebound, consolidating over the last several
weeks. To remain positive, we need to see the 50-DMA continue to hold as near-term support over the next few
sessions.

Stocks on our U.S. Focus List: Current Sentiment
Our USFL of 70 ideas lost 0.4% on average this week, underperforming the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq
(-0.3%).

By Sector

Retail ideas on the U.S. Focus List led this week. WING advanced into higher highs following its earnings
breakout two weeks ago. FIVE and LULU are moving back toward new highs after finding support at their respective
50-DMA, while OLLI found support at its 100-DMA as it builds the right side of a new base. Technology
ideas traded in mixed fashion. PAYC, TEAM, and RNG remain extended, while new additions ALRM and WDAY
broke out into new highs this week. This, while other ideas, including ATVI, ADBE, and NOW, consolidate below
their respective 50-DMA. Energy remains under pressure following a big pullback on Wednesday. FANG broke
its 200-DMA on heavy volume, while CLR continues to consolidate ~10% off highs.

Artificial Intelligence

Posted on July 20, 2018February 1, 2019 by Romeo Alvarez

AI is regarded as the most important general-purpose technology of our times, similar to disruptive 20th century innovations like the internal combustion engine. Machine learning (ML), a subset of AI, has emerged from limitations of being just a theory to offering practical business solutions. This trend is expected to generate a new innovation cycle and disrupt almost every industry.

At William O’Neil, we have identified a list of companies that are set to directly benefit from the development and deployment of AI. These companies have been divided into four categories:

1. Core development (Amazon.com, Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, etc.)

2. Supporting technologies and infrastructure (Micron, Pure Storage, Applied Materials, etc.)

3. Data collection and analytics (Splunk, Tableau Software, Box, Alteryx, Hortonworks, New Relic, etc.)

4. Specific applications/Hybrids (Adobe, Salesforce, Facebook, Veeva Systems, Netflix, ServiceNow, Spotify, Stitch Fix, Twitter, Palo Alto Networks, etc.)

IPO Rewind

Posted on January 31, 2018March 27, 2019 by Raj Gupta

Market View

Posted on December 1, 2017October 17, 2019 by Raj Gupta

Market Overview
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to diverge with Technol-ogy coming under severe selling pressure this week. Multiple leading ideas in the sector have now broken short-term support levels and will likely go through a period of consolidation before a recovery takes place. Though weakness in Technology persisted through the end of the week, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Transportation, and Retail are still trading at or near new highs as rotation into value continues. A further rise in distribution that takes the major averages below their respective 50-DMAs will result in a downgrade of the U.S. market.
Stocks on our U.S. Focus List—Current Sentiment

Our USFL of 72 ideas (two net removals) lost 2.2% on average this week, underperforming the S&P 500 (+1.5%) and the Nasdaq (-0.6%).

By Sector
Technology ideas on the U.S Focus List are pulling back to price and moving average support. Semiconductors, in particular, took the brunt of the selling. AMAT, CY, MCHP, MPWR, NVDA, and SWKS all broke their respective 50-DMAs. Software ideas also sold off with ATVI, NOW, PAYC, and QTWO all breaking their 50-DMAs. Finan-cial ideas on our Focus List came under accumulation. ESNT, MS, SCHW, SIVB, VNTV, and WAL are all now trading at all-time highs. Building-related ideas across multiple sectors are also acting well. EXP, HD, and PHM are hitting new highs.

US Focus Long

Posted on December 1, 2017December 2, 2017 by Raghavendra K

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to diverge with Technology coming under severe selling pressure this week. Multiple leading ideas in the sector have now broken short-term support levels and will likely go through a period of consolidation before a recovery takes place. Though weakness in Technology persisted through the end of the week, Financial, Transportation, and Retail are still trading at or near new highs as rotation into value continues. A further rise in distribution that takes the major averages below their respective 50-DMAs will result in a downgrade of the U.S. market.

US Focus Long

Posted on November 24, 2017November 25, 2017 by Raghavendra K

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The major averages continue to push into new highs with healthy action across leading ideas. Distribution stands at five days on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq with multiple days set to expire next week. We maintain our positive view on the general market.

Market View

Posted on November 17, 2017November 23, 2017 by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices, led by the Nasdaq, rallied back into all-timehighs. Alt-hough the distribution day count increased to six on the Nasdaq and fiveon the S&P, price action across leader-ship ideas remains constructive. We will become more cautiousif distribution remains elevated as indi-ces/leading stocks fall below key support levels.

Stocks on our U.S. Focus List—Current SentimentOur USFL of 73 ideas (no net change)gained 1.6% on averagethis week, outperforming the S&P 500(-0.1%) and the Nasdaq (0.5%).

By Sector

Technology ideas on the U.S Focus List continue to outperform. EXTRand WBrose over 10% after reporting good results last week. EXTRis buyable. ALRMregained its 100-DMA on strong volume but remains below its 50-DMA and is poised to consolidate. Consumer Staple outperformed, led by heavy accumulation in BUFFand MNST. Within Financial, payment processors including PYPLcontinue totrend higher.

US Focus Long

Posted on November 17, 2017November 18, 2017 by Raghavendra K

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices, led by the Nasdaq, rallied back into alltime highs despite a rise in distribution. Although the distribution day count increased to six on the Nasdaq and five on the S&P, price action across leadership ideas remains constructive. We will become more cautious if distribution remains elevated as indices/leading stocks fall below key support levels.

Strategy View

Posted on November 13, 2017March 27, 2019 by Randy Watts

Some highlights from the report:

With 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 earnings, median sales growth of 6% is in line with Q2, while median EPS growth of 9% decelerated a bit from 11% in Q2.

o Health Care and Retail are the two sectors that showed median acceleration in both sales and EPS growth. Financial showed slight sales growth acceleration but slight EPS growth deceleration.

o Tech had another great quarter, with the second-best median sales growth (7%) and tied-for-best median EPS growth (13%).

EPS surprises: As expected, the median surprise was about 3%, in line with the last six years. Energy (+9%) and Tech (+6%) had the best median surprises.
Day-of Reactions: Reactions to earnings were not great, about flat across all companies. Despite growth acceleration, Health Care and Retail had the worst reactions. Cyclicals and Energy had the best reactions, possibly attributed to outsized EPS beats.
Looking at our U.S. Focus List, companies that reported sales/EPS growth acceleration, sales/EPS beats, and reacted positively on the day of earnings include: WING, CDEV, OLED, EL, SIVB, GOOGL, ALGN, MPWR, ABMD, RHT, PYPL, PRAH, NOW. Those highlighted in green remain buyable.
Other actionable names include BABA, AMZN, ADSK, AVGO, COG, SCHW, COR, ESNT, FB, FIVE, FLT, GPN, ILMN, MB, MS, NFLX, QTWO, RP, SKX, SWKS, TNET, WB, WAL.

Market View

Posted on November 10, 2017November 22, 2017 by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Though distribution rose this week to two and five days on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively, each index continues to hold short-term support at the 21-DMA. Leadership also remains healthy with 80% of the U.S. Focus List still trading above the 50-DMA and 60% within 5% of a new high. We will become more cautious should we see a further rise in distribution that takes the major averages below their respective 21-DMAs. Stocks on our U.S. Focus List—Current Sentiment Our USFL of 73 ideas (two net additions) was flat this week, outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and the Nasdaq (-0.2%). By Sector Despite the pullback in Technology this week, most Technology ideas on the U.S. Focus List responded well to earnings. WB, OLED, TTWO, CY, RNG, and NVDA all moved into new highs. Conversely, ALRM, TYL, and ZAYO broke their respective 50-DMAs. Outside of Technology, MNST and PLNT both moved into new highs post earnings. Health Care continues to be under pressure. PRAH broke its 50-DMA following poor earnings results from peers. VRTX also continues to live below its 50-DMA due to a weakening biotech industry group. Only 8% of our U.S. Focus List is made up of Health Care ideas after multiple ideas have been removed the last few weeks.