Consumer Staples (XLP): The index continues to form the right side of a stage-one consolidation. It cleared the
resistance level of $74.6 on good volume. RS line has been trending sideways with RS Rating of 65 and A/D Rating of B-.
Symbol: CBRL
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), Fifty One Job Inc ADS (JOBS), Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), Expedia Group (EXPE), Herbalife (HLF), CNX Resources Corp (CNX), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Bausch Health Companies (BHC), Moderna (MRNA), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Digital Turbine (APPS), Blackline (BL), Pinterest (PINS), Spirit Airlines (SAVE).
Developed: Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (JS@N.JP; 4182 JP), Comsys Holdings (CHOC.JP; 1721 JP), Nippon Elec. Glass (LO@N.JP; 5214 JP), ProSiebenSat 1 Media (PSMX.DE; PSM GR), Canada Goose (GOOS.CA; GOOS:CN), Wilmar International (EZYH.SG; WIL SP), Kose (OSEC.JP; 4922 JP), Meiji Holdings (MEJH.JP; 2269 JP), Fisher & Paykel (FPHZ.NZ; FPH NZ), Hennes and Mauritz (HMBF.SE; HMB SS), Disco (DISC.JP; 6146 JP), International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.GB; IAG LN).
Emerging: Formosa Chemicals and Fibre Corporation (FOR.TW; 1326 TT), Localiza Rent A Car (LOC.BR; RENT3:BZ ), Formosa Petrochemical (FPC.TW; 6505 TT), Bangkok Bank (BBLT.TH; BBL:TB), Shinsegae International (ZZQ.KR; 031430 KS), Micro-Star International (MSI.TW; 2377 TT).
Global Laggards
|
Attached is the latest Global Laggards report from our analysts. You can also access the report here.
This report has been curated by our sector analysts to find stocks showing technical weakness. We believe these stocks are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance.
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: R P M International ( RPM ), Cummins Inc ( CMI ), Allison Transmission ( ALSN ), Nio Inc ( NIO ), Carnival Corp ( CCL ), Liberty Oilfield Services ( LBRT ), First Midwest Bancorp ( FMBI ), Reinsurance Group of America ( RGA ), Guardant Health ( GH ), Cracker Barrel ( CBRL ), Cree ( CREE ), Take-Two Interactive ( TTWO ), Activision Blizzard ( ATVI ).
Developed: NGK Insulators ( KI@N.JP; 5333 JP ), Comsys Holdings ( CHOC.JP; 1721 JP ), Continental ( CONX.DE; CON GR ), Flughafen Zurich ( FHZN.CH; FHZN:SW ), China Resource Beer ( CHRE.HK; 291 HK ), Koninklijke Vopak ( VPK.NL; VPK NA ), Fisher & Paykel ( FPHZ.NZ; FPH NZ ), J Front Retailing ( MZYA.JP; 3086 JP ), Nintendo ( NNDO.JP; 7974 JP ).
Emerging: PTT Global Chemical ( PTTG.TH; PTTGC TB ), LG Household & Healthcare( LHH.KR; 051900 KS ), Amorepacific Group ( PHM.KR; 002790 KS ), Atacadao Distribuicao ( CRF.BR; CRFB3 BZ ), |
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Mosaic Company ( MOS ), Aramark ( ARMK ), Sabre Corporation ( SABR ), Murphy Oil Corporation ( MUR ), Brighthouse Financial ( BHF ), Patterson Companies ( PDCO ), Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA ), Cracker Barrel ( CBRL ), Dolby Laboratories ( DLB ), Yelp ( YELP ), Hub Group Incorporation ( HUBG )
Developed: Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget Sca ( SW@G.SE; SCAB SS ), Taisei ( TC@N.JP; 1801 JP ), Nikon ( OU@N.JP; 7731 JP ), Suncor Energy ( SU.CA; SU CN ), Caixabank ( CABK.ES; CABK SM ), Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma ( DPPH.JP;4506:JP ), Seven and I ( SEVI.JP; 3382 JP ), Aeon ( JT@N.JP; 8267 JP ), Marubeni ( MRBU.JP; 8002 JP ), Spark New Zealand ( SPKZ.NZ; SPK NZ ), Dena ( DENA.JP; 2432 JP ), Yamato Holdings Corporation ( OJ@N.JP; 9064 JP )
Emerging: Koza Altin Isletmeleri ( KAI.TR; KOZAL TI ), Tenaga Nasional ( TENN.MY; TNB MK ), Discovery ( DSYJ.ZA; DSY SJ ), Lojas Americanas Pn ( LM4.BR; LAME4 BZ )
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
Yelp ( YELP ) – Technology; $2.9B market cap – provides an online platform that allows users to find and review local businesses via Yelp.com and the Yelp mobile app.
O’Neil Methodology
- We see resistance at the 10- and 40-WMA and immediate support near November 2018 lows of ~$29, which provides downside of about 22%.
- Poor O’Neil Ratings and Rankings: Composite Rating of 43, SMR Rating of D, RS Rating 22, and A/D Rating C+.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: The Chemours Company ( CC ), Aecom Technology ( ACM ), Valmont Industries ( VMI ), Aptiv ( APTV ), Molson Coors Brewing ( TAP ), Halliburton Company ( HAL ), Capital One Financial ( COF ), Henry Schein ( HSIC ), Beacon Roofing Supply ( BECN ), Qurate Retail ( QRTEA ), TE Connectivity ( TEL ), Amdocs Limited ( DOX )
Developed: Upm Kymmene Corporation ( UPM.FI; UPM FH ), Ngk Insulators ( KI@N.JP; 5333 JP ), Mazda Motor ( KO@N.JP; 7261 JP ), Orkla ( ORK.NO; ORK NO ), Equinor ( EQNR.NO; EQNR NO ), RSA Insurance Group ( RSA.GB; RSA LN ), Cochlear ( COH.AU; COH AU ), Seven & I ( SEVI.JP; 3382 JP ), Lawson ( LAWS.JP; 2651 JP ), Infineon Technologies ( IFXX.DE; IFX GR ), Toppan Printing ( PT@N.JP; 7911 JP), Deutsche Lufthansa (LHAX.DE; LHA GR)
Emerging: Hyundai Heavy Industries (HUE.KR; 00950 KS ), Fubon Financial Holdings ( FUB.TW; 2881 TT ), Bim Birlesik Magazalar ( BMI.TR; BIMAS TI )
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
Developed
Cochlear ( COH.AU; COH:AU ) – Health Care; $7.1B market cap – global leader in implantable cochlear hearing devices with ~60% market share.
O’Neil Methodology
- The stock gapped down below its 50- and 200-DMA on February 19 following poor H1 FY19 results. We believe the stock can now be shorted following a low volume rally into the 50-DMA.
- Technical ratings: RS line at a new low, RS Rating of 48, A/D Rating of D-.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each jumped more than 1% after consolidating earlier this week. The distribution count stands at four days on each index after one day expired on the S&P 500 at yesterday’s close. The next level of resistance is ~2,864 on the S&P 500 and ~7,873 on the Nasdaq.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Pan American Silver Corporation ( PAAS ), Proto Labs ( PRLB ), News Corporation ( NWSA ), Lancaster Colony Corp ( LANC ), EQT Corporation ( EQT ), M B Financial ( MBFI ), Resmed ( RMD ), Cars.com ( CARS ), Qurate Retail ( QRTEA ), Juniper Networks ( JNPR ), Fifty One Job ( JOBS ), Jetblue Airways Corporation ( JBLU )
Developed: Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal ( NSSM.JP; 5401 JP ), Mitsubishi Electric ( UM@N.JP; 6503 JP ), Singapore Telecom ( TELC.SG; ST SP ), NH Foods ( FY@N.JP; 2282 JP ), Caltex Australia ( CTX.AU; CTX AU ), Orix ( ORIX.JP; 8591 JP ), Cosmos Pharmaceutical ( CSMS.JP; 3349 JP ), Hitachi Metals ( HM@N.JP; 5486 JP ), NTT Data ( COMM.JP; 9613 JP ), Nippon Express ( NX@N.JP; 9062 JP ), Credit Agricole ( CRDA.FR; ACA FP )
Emerging: Discovery ( DSYJ.ZA; DSY SJ )
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
U.S.
Proto Labs Inc ( PRLB ) – Capital Equipment; $2.9B market cap – manufactures custom prototypes and short-run production parts through advanced 3D printing, computer numerical control (
) machining, sheet metal fabrication, and injection molding processes. 80% of revenues are derived from the U.S., while the remainder primarily are from Europe.
O’Neil Methodology
- PRLB gapped down substantially on February 7 and closed at a 12-month low after reporting disappointing Q4 2018 results and issuing below-consensus Q1 2019 guidance. While the stock has seen a small rebound over the past month, it continues to trade below its key moving averages.
- A/D Rating remains at D- and RS line is sitting near its trailing 12-month low.
Commentary
- In Q4, sales of $113M were near the low end of management’s previous guidance of $112M–117M, while EPS of $0.74 was below guidance of $0.77–0.83.
- More importantly, the Company provided Q1 2019 guidance that was far below consensus expectations, raised concerns about its growth trajectory. The Company expected to post mid-teens sales and EPS growth from 2019–2020. Revenue guidance of $113M–119M was below consensus of $120M, with the midpoint representing 7.5% y/y growth. EPS guidance of $0.65–0.73 was below consensus of $0.80, with the midpoint representing a 2% y/y decline.
- Management noted that the company’s recently-acquired sheet metal business had unperformed its expectations and was the primary driver the company’s weak quarter.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts:
U.S.: Olin Corporation ( OLN ), Commercial Metals Co ( CMC ), Omnicom Group ( OMC ), Thor Industries ( THO ), Plantronics ( PLT ), Nabors Industries Ltd ( NBR ), Ameris Bancorp ( ABCB ), AbbVie ( ABBV ), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store ( CBRL ), Chico’s Fas ( CHS ), MercadoLibre ( MELI ), Silicon Laboratories ( SLAB ), Proofpoint ( PFPT )
Developed: Lafargeholcim ( LHN.CH; LHN SW ), Fanuc ( DU@N.JP; 6954 JP ), Hitachi Construction Machinery ( HTMC.JP; 6305 JP ), Sumitomo Rubber Industries ( SURI.JP; 5110 JP ), Heineken ( HB.NL; HEIA NA ), Omv ( OMV.AT; OMV AV ), Dbs Group Holdings ( DBSS.SG; DBS SP ), Inditex ( IND.ES; ITX SM ), Kesko ( KESK.FI, KESKOB FH ), Brother Industries ( BI@N.JP; 6448 JP ), Digital Garage ( DIGR.JP; 4819 JP ), Singapore Airlines ( SAIR.SG; SIA SP )
Emerging: Tim Participacoes ( TCS.BR; TIMP3 BZ ), Tiger Brands ( TBSJ.ZA; TBS SJ ), Standard Bank Group ( SBKJ.ZA; SBK SJ ), Saci Falbella ( FAL.CL; FALAB CI ), LG Display ( LGL.KR; 034220 KS ), Hyundai Glovis ( GLV.KR; 086280 KS )
Global Laggards
Attached is the latest Global Laggards report from our analysts.
This report has been curated by our sector analysts to find stocks showing technical weakness. We believe these stocks are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance.
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Axalta Coating Systems (
), Mastec (
), Caterpillar ( CAT ), Goodyear Tire & Rubber ( GT ), Hain Celestial Group ( HAIN ), Core Laboratories ( CLB ), Umpqua Holdings Corp ( UMPQ ), Tivity Health ( TVTY ), Cars.com ( CARS ), JD.com ( JD ), Infinera ( INFN ), Zynga Inc ( ZNGA ), Jetblue Airways ( JBLU ).
Developed: South32 (S32.AU; S32 AU), Nidec ( NDEN.JP; 6594 JP ), Horiba ( HORI.JP; 6856 JP ), Nissan Motor ( NR@N.JP, 7201 JP ), Ontex Group ( ONTE.BE; ONTEX BB ), Pjsc Gazprom ( OGZD.GB; OGZD LI ), Unicredit ( UCG.IT; UCG IM ), Otsuka Holdings ( OTHD.JP; 4578 JP ), Metcash ( MTS.AU; MTS AU ), Siltronic ( WAFX.DE; WAF GR ), Adecco ( ADEN.CH; ADEN SW ), Royal Mail ( RMG.GB; RMG LN ).
Emerging: Posco ( PIS.KR; 005490 KS ), Hero Motocorp ( HER.IN; HMCL IN ), LG Household & Healthcare ( LHH.KR; 051900 KS ), Bradespar Pn ( R4P.BR; BRAP BZ ), Lojas Americanas ( LM4.BR; LAME4 BZ ), Quanta computer ( QUM.TW; 2382 TT ), Korean Air Lines ( KAA.KR; 003490 KS ).
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Gold Fields (
), Illinois Tool Works, (
), Wynn Resorts (
), Belmond (
), Palmolive (
), Ormat Technologies (
), New York Community Bncrp (
), Tivity Health (
), Cracker Barrl Old Cent St (
), Extreme Networks (
), Nielsen Holdings (
)
Developed: Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU; NCM AU), Wpp (WPP.GB; WPP LN), Lixil Group (LIXI.JP; 5938 JP), Wilmar International (EZYH.SG; WIL SP), Inter Pipeline (IPL.CA; IPL CN), Danske Bank (DAB.DK; DANSKE DC), BOC Hong Kong (BOC.HK;2388 HK), Convatec (CTEC.GB; CTEC LN), Asos (ASC.GB; ASC LN), Rohm (ROHM.JP; 6963 JP), Randstad (RAND.NL; RAND NA)
Emerging: GMK Norilsk Nickel (GMK.RU; GMKN RM), Lg (LCY.KR; 003550 KS), Minor International (RGRT.TH; MINT TB), Natura Cosmeticos (NAT.BR; NATU3:BZ), SK Innovation (SBG.KR; 096770 KS), Nh Investment and Secs (LUS.KR; 005940 KS), Mediatek (MDT.TW; 2454 TT), Korean Airlines (K
.KR; 003490 KS)
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
U.S.
Belmond Ltd. (
), formerly known as Orient-Express Hotels Ltd., operates 47 luxury hotels, trains, and river cruises in 24 countries. Properties include the Hotel Cipriani and Hotel Splendido in Italy.
- Shares have been trading below their 40-WMA since November 2017. The stock’s RS line has been declining since February 2017 and its RS Rating stands at a low of 20. Fundamental profile remains very poor with an EPS Rank of 38 and an SMR Rating of E. Three-year earnings growth is a poor -16% and its stability factor of 30 is one of the worst in the industry, along with its ROE of 2% and a single-digit pretax margin.
-
has significantly missed consensus estimates in the past three quarters. In Q1 2018, the Company reported adjusted EBITDA of -$2.2M, below the $1.6M profit expected by consensus. Revenue was 12% below consensus estimates. For the full year, management guided for an unimpressive RevPAR growth of 2-6% in constant currency.
- The Company is likely to miss its long-term targets, with 2018 EBITDA of $140M-150M still far from its 2020 EBITDA target of $240M. EBITDA CAGR for 2018-2020 is expected to reach the high single digits, versus double digits the past two years. The stock trades in line with the sector at a FY 2018 EV/EBITDA of 12.2x.
Alcoa (
) – Basic Material – ($8B market cap, $122M ADV) produces aluminum (67% of Q2 2018 revenues), alumina (30%), and bauxite (2%) and is the largest global aluminum producer outside of China.
- Shares fell 14% on more than 700% above average volume after Q2 2018 earnings results.
- Prior to earnings, shares failed in an attempt to retake both the 50- and 200-DMA. In addition, the 50-DMA ($48.09) is now below the 200-DMA, creating a declining level of resistance.
- Shares were unable to hold above $43-44, which had acted as support several times in the past five months. On a bounce back into this area, shares may see significant resistance.
- Reported Thursday July 19,
‘s Q2 2018 sales of $3.59B and adjusted EBIDTA of $904M rose 25% and 79%, y/y, respectively. Sales beat the consensus by 3.5% but adjusted EBITDA missed by about 5%.
- Sales beat on higher realized aluminum/alumina prices in the quarter, but EBITDA missed due to the impact of U.S. tariffs (from June 1 on) and certain operational issues including a temporary shutdown at a U.S. smelter.
-
is exposed to the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports, in that it has aluminum smelters in Canada for which sales are to the U.S.
- The Q2 impact to EBITDA was $15M, which only included June. It estimates a $12M-14M impact each month going forward.
- Full-year 2018 guidance was revised much lower: full-year adjusted EBIDTA of $3.0B-3.2B, from $3.5B-3.7B previously. There were three main reasons for the 14% lower view (at the midpoint):
- Lowered aluminum price assumption by 9%.
- Lowered alumina price assumption by 7%.
- Provided full-year tariff impact guidance of -$100M.
- While now extended from an ideal entry, we would hold shares if already short or wait for a low volume bounce into $43-44 resistance to take a short position.
