Select Ideas from a Financial Conference

Key points from this report:

Ideas are setting up less than 5% to pivot or are recent breakouts.
Ideas show good near-term relative strength (three-month RS Rating ≥70) and trading above their 50-DMA and 200-DMA.
Refer to pages 2–11 for annotated Datagraphs®: CME, TFC, MET, ALL, BR, NTRS, USFL stock TW, FHN, ONB, and KMPR.

Select Ideas from Financial Conference

  • Financial is among the leading sector year-to-date with the XLF trading near all-time highs and testing support at its 10-DMA ($44.9). Next support is at its 21-DMA coinciding with July highs of $44.1 (-2%).
  • Included are annotated datagraphs for the stocks that are trading in or near the pivot range. Stocks include:
    • USFL stock BX
    • USFL stock TW
    • JPM
    • BAC
    • WFC
    • MS
    • BK
    • FITB
    • AXP
    • CME
    • CBOE
    • PFSI
    • MSCI

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: Acuity Brands (AYI), Discovery (DISCA), Marriott International (MAR), Hess (HES), C M E Group (CME), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Amdocs (DOX).

 

Developed: South32 (S32.AU; S32 AU), Obayashi (OB@N.JP; 1802 JP), Shaw Communications (SJR/B.CA; SJR/B CN), Yakult Honsha (YAHO.JP; 2267JP), Allianz (XET) (ALVX.DE; ALV GR), Orpea (ORP.FR; ORPB EB), Toho Holdings (TOHP.JP; 8129 JP),  MTR (MTRC.HK; 66 HK).

 

Emerging: Korea Zinc (KRZ.KR; 010130 KS), MRF (MR.IN; MRF IN), Minerva On (MNV.BR; BEEF3 BZ), PTT (PTTB.TH; PTT TB), CP All (CPSE.TH; CPALL TB).

Global Sector Commentary

Key points:

This is the first time since May 2016 that Utility and Consumer Staple have held the top two positions.

In that case, both had led consistently through much of late 2015 and the first few months of 2016 as the general market worked through a severe correction.

Looking beyond defensives, the fastest improving non-defensive industry groups from Cyclical, Material, Transport, and Financial sectors include the following, highlighted in green.

Although there are positives here, the weakening of some of the largest groups, like Retail-Internet, Internet-Content, Oil&Gas-Integrated, Finance-CrdtCard/PmtPr, and Medical-Biomed/Biotech is difficult to counter, as these five have more total market capitalization than all 24 of the highlighted groups combined.

Investment Strategy: Winners from Tax Overhaul

Key points:

  • We do not think the potential positive boost to earnings from the lower corporate tax rates from the tax overhaul are fully discounted in the U.S. equity markets.
  • Companies with businesses that are primarily domestic focused tend to have higher tax rates on average. Similarly, small cap stocks, which are generally more U.S. centric, could see strong earnings revisions if the Tax Bill passes.
  • Energy currently has the highest corporate tax rate and would see major relief. Technology, on the other hand, has the second lowest and would not have as large earnings revisions.
  • If the Tax Bill passes in its current form, Wall Street consensus is that S&P 500 earnings estimates may rise by as much as $10. That would take 2018 EPS from roughly $146 per share to $156 (+19% y/y).