O’Neil TMT Weekly

Software (IGV): The software index bounced from oversold levels but ran into resistance at its 50-DMA ($411). The index
has an RS Rating of 70 and A/D Rating of D+. This is the sixth week of a base consolidation and overall action remains
very choppy. Only a few stocks including NET, APP, and DAVA are bucking the trend and are bouncing back under heavy
accumulation while the majority of software constituents remain within their bases and consolidating near moving
averages. Given that company specific fundamentals are relatively intact, the two most important things to monitor for
software stocks are the trajectory of the 10-year yield and the IGV’s reaction at the 50-DMA. A fade off the 50-DMA would
suggest a retest of the prior week’s lows and ultimately the rising 200-DMA ($375), however, a retake and hold above the
50-DMA could signal a shift back into growth after a weak job report.

Global Laggards

U.S.: S&P Global Inc (SPGI), Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (COG), RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR), Boston Scientific (BSX), Intel Corp. (INTC), Dish Network Corp (DISH), Splunk (SPLK).

 

Developed: Tokuyama (TOSO.JP, 4043 JP), China Resources Cmt. Hdg. (CRCH.HK; 1313 HK), Kintetsu Group (KINR.JP; 9041 JP), Reckitt Benckiser (RB.GB; RB LN), ASX Ltd. (ASX.AU; ASX AU), Cochlear (COH.AU; COH AU), Joyful Honda (JOYH.JP; 3191 JP), Nokia (NOK1.FI; NOKIA FH), Cogeco Communications (CCA.CA; CCA CN), Sage Group (SGE.GB; SGE LN).

 

Emerging: Osotspa (OSOT.TH; OSP TB), Thai Union Group (TUFP.TH; TU TB), Home Product Center (HPC.TH; HMPRO TB), Zhen Ding Tech. Holding (ZHE.TW; 4958 TT).

 

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: Armstrong World Inds (AWI), MSG Sports (MSGS), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Henry Schein (HSIC), Sanmina (SANM), Dish Network Corp (DISH), Perspecta Inc (PRSP), Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT).

 

Developed: Kuraray (RK@N.JP; 3405 JP), Bureau Veritas (BVI.FR; BVI FP), Want Want China Holdings (WANT.HK; 151 HK), Yakult Honsha (YAHO.JP; 2267 JP), DCC (DCC.GB; DCC LN), Muenchener Ruck (MUV2X.DE; MUV2 GR), Nippon Shinyaku (JU@N.JP; 4516 JP), Atom (MOTA.JP; 7412 JP),  Elisa (ELIS.FI; ELISA FH).

 

Emerging: Lojas Americanas (LM4.BR; LAME4 BZ), Hiwin Technologies (HIW.TW; 2049 TT).

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.:  Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Koninklijke Philips (PHG), Wabtec (WAB), World Wrestling Entmnt (WWE), Choice Hotels (CHH), UGI (UGI), WEX (WEX), Encompass (EHC), Ross Stores (ROST), Sanmina (SANM), Dish Network (DISH), CDK Global (CDK).

 

Developed:  GBL New (GBLN.BE; GBLB BB), Bouygues (ENT.FR; EN FP), Aisin Seiki (ZQ@N.JP; 7259 JP), Galaxy Entertainment (PIPE.HK; 27 HK), Frap Jinmo (FRAP.HK; 817 HK), Astellas Pharma (YP@N.JP; 4503 JP), Sunny Optical (SOPT.HK; 2382 HK).

 

Emerging: Hitejinro (JCL.KR; 000080 KS), Ptt (PTTB.TH; PTT TB), Public Bank (PBOM.MY; PBK MK), CP All (CPSE.TH; CPALL TB), Phison Electronics (PHE.TW; 8299 TT).

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: Quaker Chemicals (

), Oshkosh (

), Sonoco Products (

), Madison Square Garden (

), Umpqua (

), BioTelemetry (

), Sprouts Farmer Market (

), Advanced Energy (

), Dish Network Corp (

).

 

Developed: Hakko (KH@N.JP; 4151 JP), Seven & I Holdings (SEVI.JP; 3382 JP), Tesco (TSCO.GB; TSCO LN), Hexagon B (EKBF.SE; HEXAB SS), Konami (KONA.JP; 9766 JP), Nippon Express (NX@N.JP; 9062 JP).

 

Emerging: Petkim Petrokimya Holdings (PET.TR; PETKM TI), Siam Cement (SCQT.TH; SCC TB), Gpo Finance Banorte (GTB.MX; GFNORTEO MM).

WON Global View

The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating below the March 4 intraday high (S&P 500: 2,816; Nasdaq: 7,643) with six and five distribution days, respectively. One distribution day expires on each index at the close Thursday.

New Media vs. Old Media

Key points

  • Cord-cutting accelerated in Q4 2018: the top five pay-TV companies lost approximately 822,000 video subscribers, compared with 216,000 lost in Q4 2017.
  • Connective TV ( CTV ) advertising is in its initial growth phase. Ad-supported video via over-the-top ( OTT ) platforms could drive U.S. programmatic TV ad spend to ~$4.7B (~7% of ad spend) in 2020, a 2018–2020 CAGR of 64%.
  • 2019 notables: OTT competition, rising content spend, and password mooching.