O’Neil TMT Weekly

Software (IGV): The software benchmark fell more than 5% last week and remains under distribution below its 50-DMA
($333). This is its worst weekly performance year-to-date since declining ~9% in the first week of January. The index is
now at risk of breaking below its March lows ($300.84). RS line is at its three-year lows, with an RS Rating of 29 and an
A/D Rating of D+, reflecting the underperformance in the last month. Ten of the 11 software industry groups remain weak and ranked below 100 (1= best, 197 = worst). While Cybersecurity continues to remain the only exception (rank: 60), the group and high quality constituents (PANW and FTNT) were unable to avoid the broad-based distribution. Meanwhile, software giants IBM and SAP reported their Q1 results and reiterated that technology spends will remain elevated this year even in the face of multiple macro-economic headwinds. High profile companies reporting this week include MSFT, NOW, and DSY.FR, all trading at or near their year-to-date lows. A break lower across large cap software
constituents could lead to accelerated distribution across the IGV. Software names breaking out remain few and far
between – VRNT is the only standout name. Given the weak price action, we maintain a cautious outlook on the IGV

Global Laggards

Attached is the latest Global Laggards report from our analysts.

 

This report has been curated by our sector analysts to find stocks showing technical weakness. We believe these stocks are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance.

 

Highlighted Charts

U.S.: WD 40 Co ( WDFC ), Honeywell ( HON ), Johnson Controls Intl ( JCI ), MDU Resources Group ( MDU ), General Motors ( GM ), Warner Music Group( WMG ), UGI ( UGI ), Marketaxess Holdings ( MKTX ), First Citizens BancShares ( FCNCA ), Pennymac Financial Svcs ( PFSI ), Fiserv ( FISV ), Inari Medical ( NARI ), T D Synnex ( SNX ), Avery Dennison ( AVY ), F5 Networks ( FFIV ), Zebra Technologies ( ZBRA ), Verisign ( VRSN ), New Relic ( NEWR ).

Developed: Symrise( SY1X.DE; SY1 GR ), Alfa Laval ( ALF.SE; ALFA SS ), Wartsila ( WRT.FI; WRT1V FH ), Future plc ( FUTR.GB; FUTR LN ), Hermes( RMS.FR; RMS FP , Puma( PUMX.DE; PUM GR ), David Campari Milano( CPR.IT; CPR IM ), Reckitt Benckiser Group ( RKT.GB; RKT LN ), L’Oreal(  OR@F.FR; OR FP ), Ramsay Healthcare ( RHC.AU; RHC AU ), Marr ( MARR.IT; MARR IM ), Electrocomponents ( ECM.GB; ECM LN ).
Emerging: Sk Innovation ( SBG.KR; 096770 KS ), Ace hardware Indonesia ( ACE.ID; ACES IJ ), Hyundai Rotem ( HRO.KR ).

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: Albany International Corp ( AIN ), Amer Axle & Mfg Holdings ( AXL ), AB Inbev ( BUD ), Evercore ( EVR ), Invitae ( NVTA ), American Eagle Outfittrs ( AEO ), F5 Networks ( FFIV ), Commvault Systems ( CVLT ).

 

Developed: Imerys ( NK.FR; NK FP ), Cleanaway Waste Management ( CWY.AU; CWY AU ), Outsourcing ( OUTS.JP; 2427 JP ), Subaru ( FJ@N.JP; 7270 JP ), Japan Tobacco ( ABOT.JP; 2914 JP ), Fukuoka ( FUKU.JP; 8354 JP ), Sosei Group ( S@SE.JP; 4565 JP ), Morrison Supermarket ( MRW.GB; MRW LN ), SG Holdings ( SGHS.JP; 9143 JP ).

 

Emerging: Bharat Electronics ( BHE.IN; BHE IN ), Hyundai Motor ( HDR.KR; 005380 KS ), Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen ( PLK.PL; PKN PW ), Banco De Chile ( CLE.CL; CHILE CI ), Cp All ( CPSE.TH; CPALL TB ), GUC ( GLO.TW; 3443 TT ).

Investment Strategy: Winners from Tax Overhaul

Key points:

  • We do not think the potential positive boost to earnings from the lower corporate tax rates from the tax overhaul are fully discounted in the U.S. equity markets.
  • Companies with businesses that are primarily domestic focused tend to have higher tax rates on average. Similarly, small cap stocks, which are generally more U.S. centric, could see strong earnings revisions if the Tax Bill passes.
  • Energy currently has the highest corporate tax rate and would see major relief. Technology, on the other hand, has the second lowest and would not have as large earnings revisions.
  • If the Tax Bill passes in its current form, Wall Street consensus is that S&P 500 earnings estimates may rise by as much as $10. That would take 2018 EPS from roughly $146 per share to $156 (+19% y/y).

Global Laggards

Our Global Laggards list comprises stocks that have poor O’Neil Ratings and Rankings. This list has been curated by our sector analysts to find stocks showing technical
weakness. We believe these stocks are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further
downside risk and underperformance.

Global Laggards

Our Global Laggards list comprises stocks that have poor O’Neil Ratings and Rankings. This list has been curated by our sector analysts to find stocks showing technical weakness. We believe these stocks are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance.