Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

European markets ended in negative territory as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to levels not seen since February 2020. There is a fear of inflation as U.S. retail sales beat expectations. We will keep an eye out for opportunities as they appear while keeping a check on signs of deteriorating conditions.
The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.74% on higher volume, taking the distribution day count to as high as six. Technology underperformed, declining 200bps, while Health Care and Basic Resources ended in the red.
Among other major bourses, Germany’s DAX underperformed, declining 1.10%, France’s CAC and the U.K.’s FTSE also ended in the red.
All the 17 indices we track declined with almost all of them recording a distribution day. The elevated average distribution count of 6.3 is a concern though. Market status remains unchanged with nine markets in a Confirmed Uptrend while others remain in an Uptrend Under Pressure.
Actionable names in the Focus List include SoftwareOne Holding (SWON.CH; SWON:SW), De Longhi (DLG.IT; DLG:IM), Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN:SW), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), Yougov (YOU.GB; YOU:LN), and GN Store Nord (GSN.DK; GN:DC), and Straumann Holding (STMN.CH; STMN:SW).

Won Europe Today

We released our weekly Global Laggards report yesterday (please click here to access the report). The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European names highlighted this week include Salmar (SALM.NO; SALM:NO), AAK (AAK.SE; AAK:SS), H. Lundbeck (LUN.DK; LUN:DC), and Hennes & Mauritz (HMBF.SE; HMB:SS).

Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets slipped after a strong rally on Monday, with some stocks being targeted after the ban on short‐selling was lifted in several countries and on doubts over approval of the Franco‐German proposal for a recovery fund. The fund will be available in 2021 at the earliest after the proposal is approved unanimously by 25 other countries.
  • The Stoxx 600 lost 0.61% on high volume, with major sectors closing in the red. Telecom and Auto stocks were the worst performers, with a decline of more than 2.65% and 1.40%, respectively, as car registrations in Italy and the U.K. contracted 98% in April. There was a distribution day recorded, and the count increased to four. The market’s status remains unchanged, Uptrend Under Pressure, with a key level of resistance at 349.22, which corresponds to April 30 high.
  • Among other major bourses, France’s CAC and the U.K.’s FTSE declined around 8% on high volume, both recording distribution days, as the U.K. saw the highest unemployment figures in April since 1996. Germany’s DAX was up 0.15% on high volume with gains in media, basic resources, and technology stocks.
  • Finland, Norway, Switzerland, Portugal, and the Netherlands closed in positive territory. All the other indices dropped, recording a distribution day. Of the 17 indices we track, 14 remain in an Uptrend Under Pressure, while Denmark, Switzerland, and Italy are in a Confirmed Uptrend. The average distribution day increased to 4.4.
  • In terms of sectors, Telecom lagged the market, led by Telecom Italia ( TIT.IT;TIT:IM ) after the company reported a poor trading update. Banks, Autos, and Utilities also retreated, while Technology was the best‐performing group, led by Micro Focus ( MCRO.GB;MCRO:LN ), Scout24 ( G24X.DE;G24:GR), and Dialog Semiconductor ( DLGX.DE;DLG:GR).
  • From our Focus List, actionable ideas include Hypoport Finance (HYQX.DE;HYQ:GR), Encavis (CAPX.DE;CAP:GR), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK;NOVOB:DC), Sweco (SWEB.SE;SWECB:SS), Givaudan (GIVN.CH;GIVN:SW), Orsted (DEN.DK;ORSTED:DC), Swedish Match (SWMA.SE;SWMA:SS), Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.ES:CLNX:SM), Teleperformance (ROFR.FR;TEP:FP).
  • Watch List (stocks near pivot with good fundamental metrics): Nolato (NA.SE;NOLAB:SS), Deutsche Wohen (DWNIX.DE;DWNI:GR), and Evotec (EVTX.DE;EVT:GR).

Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets continued their upward trajectory on hopes that economies will reopen. France will reopen shops from May 11, while most of the restrictions in Spain are set to be removed in the next eight weeks.
  • The Stoxx 600 gained 1.68% on high volume and was led by underperforming sectors and lagging names bouncing from recent lows in the financials and oil & gas sectors. Lagging sectors were mainly the defensive ones, Health Care, Telcos, and F&B. Banks climbed more than 4% on a proposal of their leverage ratio being relaxed by the European Union.
  • The Index is now flirting with its 50-DMA. Should the index break this level on strong volume led by leading quality names, it would send a strong bullish signal to investors.
  • Among other major indices, France’s CAC gained more than 1.4%, with BNP Paribas and Safran climbing more than 6% each. Germany’s DAX climbed about 1.3%, with technology, insurance, and transportation sectors leading the gains, while the U.K.’s FTSE gained more than 1.9% after Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to work yesterday.
  • All the 17 indices that we track closed in positive territory. Most indices, including the Stoxx 600, have witnessed a decline in their number of distribution days; among the 17 indices we cover, the number of distribution days on average is now at a very low level at 1.1.
  • From our Focus List, shares of Swedish Match (SWMA.SE;SWMA:SS) broke out of a stage-two consolidation base on above average volume. Neoen (NEOP.FR;NEOEN:FP) bounced from its 10-WMA and is currently forming the handle of a cup. Euronext (ENX.FR;ENX:FP) is forming the right side of a base. Its RS line is at an almost all-time high.
  • Actionable ideas from our Focus List include SWMA.SE;SWMA:SSLONN.CH;LONN:SW, DEN.DK;ORSTED:DCSRT3X.DE;SRT3:GR.

Weekly European Sector Review

Key points:

  • Leadership continues to emerge in Europe, indicating a persistent favorable trend. Leading sectors this week include Financials and Technology. The iShares DJ Stoxx 600 ( EXSA.DE ) remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with five distribution days.
  • Actionable ideas from our Focus List in these two sectors include Adyen ( ADYE.NL ), Dassault Systemes ( DSY.FR ), and Nemetschek ( NEMX.DE ).
  • We added ASML ( ASML.NL ) back to the Focus List (Long Ideas) this week. Credit Agricole
    ( CRDR.FR ) was added to our European list of Shorts.

European Weekly Summary

MARKET SUMMARY

The Ishares Dj Stoxx continues to trade constructively above key support at its 50-DMA and 200-DMA. The index breached its January 23 peak, a key level of resistance, despite increasing political uncertainty in Italy.

Increasing Number of EFL Ideas: Adding Trigano ( TRI.FR ) and Wordline ( WLN.FR ) to our Focus List

In such an environment, we continue to recommend allocating more capital toward European equities, with the exception of Italian stocks (market recently downgraded to Under Pressure). This confidence in the market is again reflected by the increasing number of stocks on our Focus List, which includes 31 stocks as of today. Last week we added Trigano ( TRI.FR ) and Countryside Properties ( CSP.GB ). We added Wordline ( WLN.FR ) this week.