Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index gained 0.5% this week, bouncing slightly higher from 50-day moving average support for a second week. The index did not pick up any additional distribution days but still has four in the past five weeks. It will lose one at the end of next week. Resistance is about 0.8% higher at AUD 5,880.
Symbol: LMPM.HK
Market View
The market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend, with three distribution days on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The total count remains low, though no distribution days will expire for over two weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each holding support along their respective 21-DMAs as leadership ideas continue to surface. Removals from the list were largely isolated to one group. Therefore, we remain positive on the general market as long as these short-term levels of support continue to hold, and distribution remains under control.
Stocks on our U.S. Focus List—Current Sentiment
Our USFL of 48 names lost 0.6% on average this week, underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Nasdaq (-0.1%).
By Sector
For a third straight week, Health Care ideas within the USFL outperformed. UNH and CELG remain actionable, while IDXX, ALGN, and NUVA continue to trend into higher highs. Home builders are breaking out across the board, with many becoming quickly extended. PHM quickly moved 5% above its $22 pivot, but can be added to on pullbacks to its 21-DMA. Semiconductors, which have slowed in recent weeks, rallied Friday sending SOXX into new highs. New addition, CAVM, remains actionable, while AVGO and AMAT continue to hit new highs. Conversely, the Mobile Manufacturing and RV industry group took a big hit this week after THO reported earnings. PATK and LCII were subsequently removed from the list.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index gained 0.6% this week, bouncing slightly higher from 50-day moving average support. The index did not pick up any additional distribution days but still has four in the past five weeks. Resistance is about 1.3% higher at AUD 5,880.
Market View
The market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend, with two distribution days on the S&P 500 and three on the Nasdaq. One distribution day is set to expire on each index at the close Monday. Leadership continues to emerge across several sectors, while few ideas have shown concerning technical weakness. Therefore, we re-main constructive on the market as long as short-term levels of support continue to hold, including the 21-DMA, while distribution remains light.
Stocks on our U.S. Focus List – Current Sentiment
Our USFL of 48 names (including four additions) gained 1.4% on average this week, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.67%) and the NASDAQ (0.44%).
By Sector
Building-related industry groups across several sectors stood out this week. IBP was the clear leader, jumping over 20%. This led to breakouts across the homebuilders including new USFL addition PHM. Defense companies also led, with HEI breaking out of a flat base into new highs after reporting better – than – expected earnings. Lastly, Health Care ideas acted well for a second straight week. IDXX, ALGN, and NUVA continue to trade into new highs, while UNH broke out of a flat base on above average volume. CELG continues to form the right side of a Stage One flat base.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index lost 0.2% this week, trading down to its 50-day moving average. The index picked up two additional distribution days and now has five in the past five weeks. If the 50-day does not hold, the next support level is about 2% lower at its 10-day moving average, AUD 5,658.
Market View
The market has begun to consolidate gains that we have seen over the last several weeks. We are looking for distribution to stay low, for price to hold above support levels, and for leadership to consolidate constructively above moving average support. Should the market pullback, we will be looking for the 21-DMA on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to hold. This level has been tested numerous times since the election and will likely be the market’s first test before the 50-DMA. We remain in a Confirmed Uptrend, still with only one distribution day on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq.
Global Focus Developed Long
Australia’s ASX All-Ordinaries Index lost 1.1% this week, reversing from 52-week highs reached the prior week. The index picked up a distribution day on Friday and now has three in the past five weeks. If the index continues to pause here, support levels are 1–2% lower at its 21-day moving average (AUD 5,793) and 50- day moving average (AUD 5,745).
