Market View

U.S. Market

The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to whipsaw below 50-
DMA resistance. Though the Nasdaq did stage a day-six follow-through on Tuesday, gains were immediately
wiped out Wednesday with instant distribution. Further, few quality ideas have been set up technically to buy with
the majority chopping around within consolidation. Our primary expectation is that the August 5 lows (S&P 500:
2,822; Nasdaq: 7,662) are undercut and we eventually test the 200-DMA. This would result in the market status
being moved back to a Downtrend. We would change our current cautious outlook should indices rally strongly,
close, and importantly hold above their respective 50-DMA. Should that occur, we would move the market status
back to a Confirmed Uptrend.

Won Global View

The U.S. market has been moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Tuesday’s follow-through day is quickly at risk of failing after undercutting this week’s lows yesterday. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq again failed to regain their respective 50-DMA, reversing off that level and picking up instant distribution. This action is indicative of prior failed follow-through days. We will move the market status back into a Downtrend and reset the count should the August 5 lows (S&P 500: 2,822; Nasdaq: 7,662) be undercut. Conversely, if we reverse yet again, and clear back above the 50-DMA, we will move the market status back to a Confirmed Uptrend.

APAC Market Update

Key points:

 

  • We are downgrading Hong Kong and South Korea to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure and Rally Attempt, respectively.
  • Focus List ideas at risk in Hong Kong include Logan Property Holdings ( LPTY.HK ), AIA Group ( AGP.HK ), and China Tower Corp ( CHTW.HK ).
  • We recommend trimming positions in extended Focus List ideas in Hong Kong that include Yihai International Holding ( YIHA.HK ), Li Ning ( LNIN.HK ), and Haidilao International Holding ( HAIN.HK ).
  • We have shifted China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trending into higher highs with
support off their respective 10- and 21-DMA. Distribution stands at six days on the S&P 500 and four on the

Nasdaq, with one day set to expire on both indices next Tuesday. To remain positive, we would like to see near-
term support levels continue to hold and distribution begin to subside.

Leadership is broadening. The majority of leading ideas and industry groups are holding logical levels of sup-
port or hitting higher highs, while previously lagging industry groups have rallied sharply off lows. Technology,

Transportation, and Consumer Cyclical rallied more than 2% each this week, while three other sectors including
Financial rallied more than 1%. Utility and Energy are the only two sectors lagging, both trading right around
their respective 50-DMA. 74 of 197 (37%) O’Neil Industry Groups are trading within 5% of a 52-week high with
160 groups (81%) trading above the 50-DMA. 46 industry groups rallied by more than 3% this week.
The overall backdrop remains positive, despite the elevated distribution day count on the S&P 500. Continue to
add to leading ideas as they rally off moving average support or emerge from secondary entry points. Lock in
partial gains in ideas that have become too far extended from later stage bases and logical levels of support.
Continue to avoid lagging ideas trading below their respective 50- and/or 200-DMA.