Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 0.1% this week. The index is consolidating below its 200-DMA (+3%) over the past six weeks. The index remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Currently, it has only one distribution day as one day expired this week.
Symbol: NXT.AU
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 1.8% this week on lower
volume. The index is consolidating below its 200-DMA (+3%) over the past
six weeks. Two distribution days expired this week and one is set to expire next
week. It remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with two distribution days.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index declined 1.7% this week. The index
remains in a Confirmed Uptrend and added its fourth distribution day this
week.
Jul 09, 2020 – Weekly Best Ideas (NEO, DOYU, CMBC.HK)
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Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed off early session gains to close at the lows of the session in lower volume. Distribution held at six and three days, respectively, with one day set to expire on each index at the close tomorrow. Short-term support is the rising 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,095; Nasdaq; 10,137), though long-term support continues to be the 50-and 21-DMA on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Cameco ( CCJ ), Three M Company ( MMM ), Autoliv Inc ( ALV ), MGM Resorts ( MGM ), Phillips 66 ( PSX ), Commerce Bancshares ( CBSH ), Unitedhealth ( UNH ), Nordstrom ( JWN ), Target ( TGT ), Sally Beauty Holdings ( SBH ), Kemet ( KEM ), Teladoc Health ( TDOC ), Werner Enterprises ( WERN )
Developed: South32 ( S32.AU; S32 AU ), Taisei ( TC@N.JP; 1801 JP ), Stanley Electric ( STAN.JP; 6923 JP ), Boss ( BOSS.DE; BOSS GR ), Suncor Energy ( SU.CA; SU CN ), Platinum Asset Management ( PTM.AU; PTM AU ), Orion B ( ORNB.FI; ORNBV FH ), Aeon ( JT@N.JP; 8267 JP ), Dena ( DENA.JP;2432 JP ), NextDC ( NXT.AU; NXT AU ), Japan Airlines ( APL.JP; 9201 JP )
Emerging: GS Engineering & Construction ( LCV.KR; 006360 KS ), Samsung C&T ( CLZ.KR; 028260 KS ), Plknc Naftowy Orlen ( PLK.PL; PKN PW ), Hana Financial ( HFH.KR; 086790 KS )
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Lyondellbasell Ind A Nv ( LYB ), Barnes Group ( B ), Criteo SA ( CRTO ), Colgate Palmolive Co ( CL ), Plains GP Hldgs Cl A ( PAGP ), Corporate Office Pptys ( OFC ), Bio Rad Labs Inc. ( BIO ), Autonation ( AN ), Shutterstock Inc. ( SSTK ), Kulicke and Soffa Ind ( KLIC ), Manhattan Associates ( MANH ), Saia Inc ( SAIA ).
Developed: Rio Tinto ( RIO.GB; RIO LN ), Singapore Telecom ( TELC.SG; ST SP ), Nissin Foods Holdings ( NIFP.JP; 2897 JP ), Subsea 7 ( SUBC.NO; SUBC NO ), Partners Group Holdings ( PGHB.CH; PGHN SW ), Recordati Industria Chimica ( REC.IT; REC IM ), Izumi ( IZUM.JP; 8273 JP ), Hitachi Metals ( HM@N.JP; 5486 JP ), Fujitsu ( FT@N.JP; 6702 JP ).
Emerging: Klabin Units ( KLU.BR; KLBN11 BZ ), Mondi ( MNDJ.ZA; MND SJ ), Minor International ( RGRT.TH; MINT TB ), Pegatron ( PEG.TW; 4938 TT ).
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
U.S.
Shutterstock ( SSTK ) – Retail Internet, $1.36B Market Cap – operates an online marketplace for licensed commercial digital imagery for sale to media and marketing agencies. The company serves more than 1.8 million active paying users in 150 countries.
The company’s Enterprise business (40% of revenues) faces an increasingly competitive environment, with y/y sales growth for this segment decelerating from 35% in Q2 to 14% in Q3. This trend is particularly concerning as Enterprise has been the key growth driver for SSTK, while the company’s e-commerce business has only been growing in the single digits.
The stock breached its 200-DMA, previous a level of support, in mid-October before gapping down substantially on October 30 after reporting below-consensus Q3 results and reducing the high end of its guidance range for FY 2018 sales and EPS.
SSTK has missed consensus EBITDA estimates in 7 of the past 8 quarters.
The stock’s RS rating has dropped from 88 to 21 over the past month, while its weak A/D Rating (D+) indicates ongoing distribution.
SSTK trades at 25x next year’s earnings, while estimated 2019 EPS only represents 5% y/y growth.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Royal Gold ( RGLD ), Jefferies Financial ( JEF ), Honda Motor ( HMC ), MGP Ingredients ( MGPI ), Enbridge Energy Partners ( EEP ), Cyrusone ( CONE ), Bio Rad Labs ( BIO ), Sothebys ( BID ), Power Integrations ( POWI ), Q2 ( QTWO ), Allegiant Travel Company ( ALGT )
Developed: EMS-Chemie ( EMS.CH; EMSN TQ ), Legrand ( LRRS.FR; LR FP ), Umicore ( UMI.SE; UMI BB ), Modern Times ( MOTB.SE; MTGB: SS ), Asics ( FD@N.JP; 7936 JP ), Subsea 7 ( SUBC.NO; SUBC NO ), CK Asset ( CKPH.HK; 1113 HK ), Recordati ( REC.IT; REC IM ), Shimamura ( SHIM.JP; 8227 JP ), Canon ( CN@N.JP ; 7751 JP ), Capcom ( CAPO.JP ; 9697 JP ), Ryanair ( RY4C.IE; RYA ID )
Emerging: Klabin Units ( KLU.BR; KLBN11 BZ ), Hero MotoCorp ( HER.IN; HMCL IN ), Samsung Electromechanics ( SEM.KR; 009150 KS ),
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
Developed
Capcom Limited ( CAPO.JP ) – Technology Software ( $2.64B Market Cap ) – develops and publishes video games ( console, online, mobile, and arcade ) and manages amusement arcades.
The stock is currently rolling over after a strong uptrend from late 2017 through September 2018 and facing upside resistance at the 200-DMA. The next level of support is at ¥2,000. RS line is at 52-week lows, RS and A/D Ratings are deteriorating.
The Company reported Q2 FY2019 results on 10/29/18, showing EPS of ¥26.91 ( 0% y/y ), operating profit of ¥5.4B ( +28%y/y ), and revenue of ¥26.1B ( 19% y/y ), all slightly below consensus expectations. Despite strength from Monster Hunter: World ( MHW ), FY2019 guidance remains unchanged and below consensus. The Company sees FY2019 EPS of ¥109.60 ( +10% y/y ), operating profit of ¥17B ( +6% y/y ), and revenue of ¥96B ( +2% y/y ), below expectations of ¥124, ¥20B, and ¥98B, respectively.
Although demand has been strong for MHW across multiple platforms (console, mobile), sales of the game have been halted in China since August. Tencent was informed by Chinese regulators to remove MHW from its PC download service (WeGame) just days after MHW’s debut. The removal was due to numerous complaints regarding MHW’s adult and violent content and how it did not fit into China’s strict gaming regulations.
Since March 2018, China’s regulators have frozen the approval of game licenses amid a government shake-up and concerns over censorship and children’s health. This has impacted multiple video game developers including Capcom.
Despite Capcom already achieving ¥10.5B or 62% of its operating profit through the first half of 2019 and ahead of the seasonally strong holiday season, the Company remained conservative and left its FY2019 operating guidance unchanged at ¥17B.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Lyondellbasell Ind ( LYB ), Berry Global Group ( BERY ), Aptiv Plc ( APTV ), Edgewell Personal Care ( EPC ), Enbridge Energy Partners ( EEP ), Bank of Nova Scotia ( BNS ), United Therapeutics ( UTHR ), AutoNation ( AN ), Penske Automotive Group ( PAG ), PTC ( PTC ), Allegiant Travel Company ( ALGT )
Developed: Nine Dragons Paper ( NDRA.HK; 2689 HK ), Cyberagent ( CYBA.JP; 4751 JP ), Just Eat ( JE.GB; JE/LN ), Ezaki Glico ( BQ@N.JP; 2206 JP ), Subsea 7 ( SUBC.NO; SUBC NO ), RSA Insurance Group,( RSA.GB; RSA LN ), William Demant Holding ( WDH.DK; WDH DC ), K’s Holdings ( GIKS.JP; 8282:JP ), SAP ( SAPX.DE; SAP GR ), Deutsche Post ( DPWX.DE; DPW GR )
Emerging: Mondi ( MNDJ.ZA; MND SJ ), Godrej Consumer Products ( GCD.IN; GCPL IN ), Zhen Ding Technology ( ZHE.TW; 4958 TT )
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
Penske Automotive Group ( PAG ) – Retail ( $4B market cap ) – operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships principally in the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe.
Shares of PAG are 20% off 52-week highs and facing resistance at their downward sloping 10- and 40-WMA. The stock has poor RS and A/D Ratings of 35 and D, respectively. We see support for the stock at ~$42, followed by ~$38.
For Q3 2018, total revenue was $5.7B, increasing 2.4% y/y and missing consensus of 5.5% y/y. The miss was due to lower-than-expected sales growth of 1.2% in its Retail Automotive segment.
Same-store sales of new cars declined 4.2% y/y compared with consensus of 6% y/y growth, as revenue from new car sales in the U.K. decreased 10.5% y/y in Q3 and 20.5% y/y in September. The implementation of the new U.K. emission standard “Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Testing Procedure” delayed the delivery of new cars to dealerships.
PAG expects the availability of new cars from OEM to normalize by the end of Q1 2019.
In 2019, revenue and EPS growth are expected to decelerate to 2%, as the Company is expected to be impacted by FX headwinds because of Brexit. The U.K. market accounted for 36% of the Company’s revenue in 9M 2018.
Further, commercial truck sales growth in the U.S. is expected to slow in 2019. In its trucks segment, which contributed to 5.9% of sales in 9M 2018, the Company expects volume growth to moderate from 28% in 2018 to 1.6-4.8% in 2019.
Global Laggards
Highlighted Charts
U.S.: Univar Incorporation ( UNVR ), Berry Global Group ( BERY ), Nordson ( NDSN ), Toyota Motor Corp ADR ( TM ), Travelport Worldwide Ltd ( TVPT ), Western Gas Partners Lp ( WES ), Regions Financial Corp ( RF ), Chemical Financial Corp ( CHFC ), Alkermes ( ALKS ), The Gap ( GPS ), Sothebys ( BID ), Waters Corporation ( WAT ), Mindbody ( MB )
Developed: Symrise ( SY1X.DE; SY1 GR ), Nomura Research Institute ( NMRS.JP; 4307 JP ), China Unicom ( UNIC.HK; 762 HK ), Kirin Holdings ( KB@N.JP; 2503 JP ), Dcc ( DCC.GB; DCC LN ), Phoenix Group Holdings ( PHNX.GB; PHNX LN ), Novo Nordisk ‘B’ ( NON.DK; NOVOB DC ), Rocket Internet ( RKETX.DE; RKET GR ), Rakuten ( RAKT.JP, 4755 JP ), NextDC ( NXT.AU; NXT AU ), Rentokil ( RTO.GB; RTO LN ), MTR Corporation ( MTRC.HK; 66 HK )
Emerging: Hero Motocorp ( HER.IN; HMCL IN ), Nedbank Group ( NEDJ.ZA; NED SJ ), Quanta Computer ( QUM.TW; 2382 TT )
Stocks worth focusing on in this week’s Global Laggards:
U.S.
Hilton Worldwide ( HLT ) – Leisure Lodging ( $23B market cap ) – Hospitality company operating more than 5,300 properties (~879,000 rooms) through 14 brands across 106 countries. Its brands include Hilton Hotels & Resorts, Waldorf Astoria, Embassy Suites, and Hampton.
The U.S. Leisure-Lodging ( G7011 ) group continues to underperform the general market, reflected by its poor RS Rating and IG Rank of 182 out of 197 groups (1 being the best).
Our bearish call in July was based on concerns about supply surpassing demand growth in the near term, currency volatility, increasing alternative accommodations, rising interest rates, and stretched valuations.
HLT reported Q3 results this week and revenues grew a modest 7.7%. RevPAR grew 2.0%, lagging the 2.5-3.0% expectation. The occupancy rate in the U.S. was 79.1%, down 0.5% y/y. System-wide occupancy was down 0.1% y/y, which reinforces our belief that demand has topped.
HLT remains under distribution: RS line at multi-year lows, RS Rating of 21, and A/D Rating of E. Next level of support is ~$61.
