Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European stocks closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 posting its biggest decline in the year, amid rising fears of a trade dispute between the U.S. and the EU following the latest U.S. tariff threats. Adding to market jitters, Germany’s bond yields hit a two-week high amid expectations of increased government spending on defense. On the economic front, the U.K.’s inflation rose 3% y/y in January, above estimates of a 2.8% y/y rise.
  • Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Nexans (NXS.FR; NEX:FP) jumped 10% after the French cable maker reported strong revenue and earnings for H2 FY24, while shares of Philips (PHIL.NL; PHIA:GK) fell 11% as the company reported lower-than-expected Q4 results.
  • The Stoxx 600 was testing support at the 10-DMA after a 0.9% pullback from its all-time high, with next support at its 21-DMA (-1.7%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
  • Overall sector performance was negative. Basic Resources (-239bps), Retail (-234bps), and Chemicals (-234bps) were the top losers, while Utility (+75bps) was the only outlier.
  • Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 pulled back 1.2% and tested support at its 10-DMA. Next support is at its 21-DMA (-1.5%). Germany’s DAX 30 declined 1.8% from its all-time high and has immediate support at its 10-DMA (-0.6%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed 0.6% lower and breached support along its 10-DMA. Immediate support is at its 21-DMA (-0.6%).
  • Fourteen of the 16 markets we track closed in the red. Fourteen are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Rally Attempt.
  • The U.K. and Sweden recorded their fifth distribution day, while Italy registered its fourth. France, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland recorded their third distribution day. Finland and Belgium registered their second distribution day, while the Netherlands recorded its first. The average distribution day count stood at 3.06.
  • Of the 31 European Focus List names, 30 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while26 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Vimian Group (VIMG.SE; VIMIAN:SS), Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB; FLTR:LN), and Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR).

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

U.S.: Quaker Houghton (KWR), Mettler Toledo (MTD), H World Group (HTHT), Hershey Company (HSY), DHT Holdings (DHT), Inter & Co (INTR), Idexx Laboratories (IDXX), Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Entegris (ENTG), and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI).

Developed: Oji Holdings (OJIH.JP; 3861 JP), Renault (RENU.FR; RNO FP), Whitbread (WTB.GB; WTB LN), Electrolux B (SE@G.SE; ELUXB SS), Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ABI.BE; ABI BB), Chubu Electric Power (CL@N.JP; 9502 JP), The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG.GB; TRIG LN), and Mitsui Fudosan (MIFU.JP; 8801 JP).

Emerging: Asian Paints (API.IN; APNT IN), Banco Bradesco (DC3.BR; BBDC3 BZ), and Yageo (YAC.TW; 2327 TT).

Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets extended their losses for a third consecutive session. Germany’s DAX 30 and France’s CAC 40 were under pressure due to declines in key stocks. Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE; DBK:GR) shares fell 2% after the company raised its bad loan forecast amid Germany’s weak economic backdrop, despite surpassing Q3 earnings estimates. Shares of the French beauty giant L’Oréal (OR@F.FR; OR:FP) declined 2.5% after the company reported lower-than-expected Q3 results, further weighing on market sentiment. Key economic releases indicated a marginal m/m improvement in Eurozone’s consumer confidence in October.
  • Among significant movers in the Stoxx 600, shares of the Swedish sports goods manufacturer Thule (THULE.SE; THULE:SS) were up more than 15% after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings.
  • The Stoxx 600 declined 0.3%, finding support at its 50-DMA. Next support is at its 100-DMA (-0.6%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
  • Among sectors, Utility (+39bps) and Automobile (+33bps) gained the most, while Mining (-154bps), Financial Services (-105bps), and Oil and Gas (-92bps) led the losses.
  • Among major indices, France’s CAC closed 0.5% lower and broke below its 50-DMA. The index was trading below all its key moving averages, with support at its early September lows. Germany’s DAX lost 23bps, with support at its 21-DMA. Near-term resistance is at its 10-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.6%, breaching its 21- and 50-DMA. Immediate support is at its 100-DMA.
  • France was shifted to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure as the index breached all its key moving averages.
  • Thirteen of the 16 indices we track closed in the red. Four indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, five in an Uptrend Under Pressure, one (France) in a Downtrend, and six in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at 4.3.
  • Of the 33 European Focus List names, 31 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 19 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
    • Biotage (BIOT.SE; BIOT:SS) was removed from the European Markets Focus List as the stock gapped down and broke below its 200-DMA on strong volume. The company reported lower-than-expected Q3 results, owing to weak demand in China.
    • Among Focus List names, shares of H Lundbeck B (HLB.DK; HLUNB:DC) declined the most, closing 4.8% lower, and breached its 50-DMA after the company lowered its mid-term EBITDA guidance, considering the acquisition of Longboard Pharmaceuticals. Support is at its 100-DMA (DKK 42.99).
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include DSV (DSV.DK; DSV:DC), Prysmian (PRY.IT; PRY:IM), Swissquote ‘R’ (SQN.CH; SQN:SW), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Novozymes ‘B’ (NZY.DK; NSISB:DC), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB; FLTR:LN), Camurus (CAMX.SE; CAMX:SS), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN), and Nkt (NKT.DK; NKT:DC).

Won Europe Today

We released our weekly European Summary yesterday. Click here to acess the report. Key points from it include:-

  • European markets declined for the third straight week, with major indices pulling back and currently at or below their 50-DMA. The Stoxx 600 is in a Downtrend and is below its 50-DMA.
  • Most of the 11 O’Neil sectors closed in the red. Staples outperformed while Technology and Energy declined the most.
  • As breadth has narrowed significantly, the number of breakouts in Europe hit extreme lows. Several defensive ideas that are currently basing are showing improving technical characteristics such as a rising RS line. It includes L’Oreal (OR@F.FR; OR:FP) in Consumer Staples, Spire Healthcare (SPI.GB; SPI:LN) in Health Care, and Telecom stocks such as Tele2 (TEL2.SE; TEL2B:SS) and Telekom Austria (TKA.AT; TKA:AV).

Won Europe Today

On Thursday,

  • European markets closed in the green with major indices near an all-time high. All major indices had a strong first
    quarter with the Stoxx 600 up 7%, CAC40 up 8.7%, and DAX up 10.3%.On a sector level, Banks, Oil & Gas, and
    Basic Resources led the gains while Utilities underperformed.
  • We recommend adding risk in stocks that are part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper bases
    with a strong and rising RS line.
  • The Stoxx 600 closed 0.18% higher, making new highs. The index has been trading along its rising 10-DMA since
    late January and showing positive momentum. Support levels: 21-DMA (1.6% below), 50-DMA (3.7% below), 100-
    DMA (6.3% below), and 200-DMA (8.9% lower).
  • Among major indices, France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX are near their all-time highs. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 is
    near its 52-week high. All indices are trading above all their key moving averages.
  • Most indices we track closed in the green. Spain led the gains and was up 1.65%. Eleven indices are in a
    Confirmed Uptrend, four are in a Rally Attempt, and one is in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count is
    currently at 2.5.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR),
    IMCD Group (IMCD.NL; IMCD:NA), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA:SS), Straumann Holdings (STMN.CH; STMN:SW),
    Partners Group (PGHN.CH; PGHN:SW), and Sage Group (SGE.GB; SGE:LN).

Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets had a positive session, gaining 24bps, as investors continue to digest the latest earnings
    session and guidance provided for FY24 in light of the central bank’s decisions and dovish approach. Value has
    started leading growth. Short-term momentum has started to fade in Technology and Consumer Staple, while
    gaining strength in Mining and Financials. Hence, we recommend that investors book profits in extended names
    that have started breaking below their near-term support levels and are displaying a change of character.
  • Sectoral gains were mostly broad based. Retail (+169bps) led the gains by a wide margin, as it closed on a strong
    monthly performance (+12.3%). It was followed by Health Care (+28bps) and Food and Beverages (+28bps).
    Travel & Leisure (-54bps) declined the most.
  • Most of the indices are exhibiting constructive technical action and are in a Confirmed Uptrend. All the three major
    indices had a positive session. Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 76bps,
    41bps, and 17bps, respectively.
  • Among the 16 indices we track, Denmark and Norway closed in the red, while Belgium closed flat with a negative
    bias. Denmark also recorded a distribution day, taking its total distribution day count to 7. We will shift the index to
    an Uptrend Under Pressure if the distribution day count increases.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List are Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB;
    FLTR:LN), IMCD Group (IMCD.NL; IMCD:NA), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Partners Group (PGHN.CH;
    PGHN:SW), Sage Group (SGE.GB; SGE:LN), Straumann Holdings (STMN.CH; STMN:SW), TBC Bank Group
    (TBCG.GB; TBCG:LN), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), and Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG:NA).

Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets ended marginally in the green. The Stoxx 600 continued making new 52-week highs. Real
    Estate gained the most, while Telecommunications led the decline.
  • We recommend that investors add risk in stocks that are part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper bases with a strong and rising RS line.
  • The Stoxx 600 closed 0.21% higher. The index had marginal moves but made new two-year highs. Support levels: 21-DMA (1.8% below), 50-DMA (2.8% below), and 200-DMA (5.2% lower). Next levels of resistance: 490 (1% above) and 495 (2.1% above).
  • Among major indices, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, and the U.K.’s FTSE have retaken all their key moving
    averages.
  • Among the 16 indices we track, closes were mixed. Seven indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, six in an Uptrend
    Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and one in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count is currently at 4.6.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IT; BC:IM), Recordati Indua. Chimica (REC.IT; REC:IM), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Bae Systems (BA.GB; BA/:LN), Vat Group (VACN.CH; VACN:SW), Bridgepoint Grp (BPT.GB; BPT:LN), Novo Nordisk ‘B’ (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC), Sanlorenzo (SANL.IT; SL:IM), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI:FP), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), and Saab B (SAAB.SE; SAABB:SS).

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

U.S.: Ashland Inc (ASH), M S C Industrial Drct (MSM), Aptiv (APTV), Charter Communications (CHTR), Tesla (TSLA), Mattel (MAT), Seaworld Entertainment (SEAS), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), EQT Corp (EQT), AES Corp (AES), Sofi Technologies (SOFI), West Pharmaceuticals (WST), Hayward Holdings (HAYW), Air Transport Services Group (ATSG).

Developed: Cae (CAE.CA; CAE CN), Renault (RENU.FR; RNO FP), Rohto Pharmaceuticals (XP@N.JP;4527 JP), Bank of Ireland (BIRG.IE; BIRG ID), Frasers Group (FRAS.GB; FRAS LN).

Emerging: Hotai Motor (HOT.TW; 2207 TT).

Won Europe Today

We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key point:

  • Most sectors closed either in the green or flat. Cyclical and Utility led the gains, while Energy declined the most. On
    our rotation graph, as mentioned last week, we are seeing improvement in short-term momentum in many sectors,
    such as Retail, Consumer Staple, Transportation, Financial, and Consumer Cyclical. Energy and Technology,
    which were in the best quadrant, showed a decline in their short-term momentum.

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: Teck Resources (TECK), Crown Holdings (CCK), Harley Davidson (HOG), Boston Beer Company (SAM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Valaris Limited (VAL), Washington Federal Savings (WAFD), West Pharmaceutical (WST), Steris (STE), Autonation (AN), Carmax (KMX), Teradyne (TER), Landstar System (LSTR).

 

Developed: SIG Group (SIGN.CH; SIGN SW), Renault (RENU.FR; RNO FP), Mitsubishi Motors (MMOT.JP, 7211 JP), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.GB; FLTR:LN), Julius Baer Gruppe (BAER.CH; BAER SW).

 

Emerging: Monerva (MNV.BR; BEEF3 BZ).