APAC Weekly Summary

MSCI Asia ex. Japan is at 100-DMA resistance. This is the second attempt since pulling back in December. It remains in a downward channel since the 50-DMA fell below the 200-DMA in June 2018.

Overall, the index remains constructive as long as it holds above the 50-DMA (~$65 for the AAXJ). The higher low in October was an encouraging sign of bottoming.

In similar fashion, major APAC markets have also risen to resistance levels. Distribution days are currently low. To remain bullish, support levels (generally the 50-DMA) must hold should distribution rise again in the short term.

Taking a look at our APAC Sector Heat Map, we focus in on Consumer Discretionary Sectors (Cyclical and Retail). In the past four weeks, Cyclical ideas are among the top performing while Retail ideas are among the weakest.

Although Cyclical and Retail hold the lowest percent of stocks above the 200-DMA, those trading above it have the highest RS Ratings and in Retail, the highest RS Ratings and EPS Rankings among sectors.

We provided the best Consumer Discretionary Ideas to keep on radar.

 

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets continue to display signs of concern. The Shenzhen and Shanghai fell for a fifth consecutive week. Both are now testing new lows for the year. The market is in a clear Downtrend and if the Shenzhen falls below January support (1,800), we view support to be at least 4-5% lower or near 1,740.

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets continue to be the weakest in APAC, falling for a fourth consecutive week. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen are trading below key support levels, which will serve as resistance levels. The Shenzhen is the worst of the two, trading 5% below its 40-WMA. The market has a near-worst A/D Rating at D+. Near-term support could be 5% lower from current levels or near January lows or 1,700. Support for the Shanghai could be at 3,000 or 4% lower.

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets are now in a Downtrend. Both markets were down less than 1% this week, but action remains weak. The Shanghai broke below key support at the 40-WMA on Monday and remains trading near it, while the Shenzhen remains the weaker, trading 11% off 52-week highs and over 4% below the 40-WMA. The markets are in their fourth day of rally attempt, awaiting a follow-through-day

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets are Under Pressure. The Shenzhen and Shanghai had a brutal week, down between 2% and 4% on greater than average weekly volume. Distribution has been rising over the past five weeks, standing at six. We are looking for the 40-WMA (1% away) to hold as support for the Shanghai to remain in uptrend.

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets continued their consolidation above moving averages through Thursday, with both the Shenzhen and Shanghai falling less than 1%. The Shanghai continues to be the stronger of the two markets this year, trading 1% off 52-week highs, versus 6% for the Shenzhen. The market is in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days for each index.

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets recovered this week, relieving some pressure from the prior week and moving back into a Confirmed Uptrend. The Shanghai market is back at 52-week highs and no distribution was recorded this week. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen are back above key moving averages, another positive.

Global Focus Emerging Long

Mainland Chinese markets fell significantly this week moving to Under Pressure. Both the Shenzhen and Shanghai are now testing support at their 10-week moving averages. Distribution has risen to four in just two weeks since the market was put in a Confirmed Uptrend.