Key Points
I – Failing follow-though day? Europe downgraded to Uptrend Under Pressure
The clustering of distribution days that occurred across the region indicates that the November 7 follow-through day is failing. As a result, yesterday, along with many European markets, the Stoxx 600 was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure after recording a third distribution day. The index will be downgraded to a Downtrend should it cut below its October 26 low.
Along with the rising number of distribution days across markets, we are not seeing any leaders emerging in the form of breakouts. There are very few places to hide currently.
II – Implementing a defensive approach
We reiterate our cautious stance and advise raising cash if possible or focusing on stocks that offer fundamental defensive profiles. Among other indicators, look at the stock’s O’Neil stability factor, dividend yield, and RS line.
In this report, we provide a list of stocks with these characteristics (see page 3): RS line at a new high, dividend yield greater than 2%, and stability factor less than 30, which guarantees constant earnings growth. These stocks are likely to continue outperforming the general market on a relative basis.
III – Focus: Staples & Healthcare
It is not surprising that the list is dominated by Staples ( e.g. ULVR.GB, DGE.GB ) and large Healthcare Caps ( ROG.CH, AZN.CH ), given their defensive profile and cash flow, which supports strong shareholder return.
From this group, AztraZeneca ( AZN.GB ) was recently added to our European Focus List. We recommend building a position in this name.
In Staples, we reiterate our bullish call on Davide Campari ( CPR.IT ), recently added to the EFL.