Won Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets closed in the green after trade talks between the U.S. and China resumed and central banks across the world took stimulus measures.
  • The Stoxx 600 was up 0.30% with almost all sectors ending in positive territory. It was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrendafter it breached its previous rally high. Banks led the gains while Airline stocks dragged the index down.
  • Among other major bourses, France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX were up 0.56% and 0.08%, respectively, while the U.K.’s FTSE was down 0.16%, all on higher volume.
  • The U.K., Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg closed in the red. The market status for France was changed to a Confirmed Uptrend after it reached new highs.

WON Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • European markets reacted to the worsening situation surrounding the U.S.-China trade talks and closed in the red.

  • The pan-European  Stoxx 600 closed 0.89% lower, with distribution across markets and sectors.

  • Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 closed 1.01% and 1.18% in the red, respectively, with higher volumes, recording a distribution day. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was closed yesterday.

  • All 17 indices were trading in negative territory.

WON Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • Most European markets closed in the red after the OECD further revised down its global growth outlook and data showed the U.S. trade deficit reached a decade high.
  • The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.04% lower. While Basic Resources and Oil & Gas advanced well, the Auto sector lost almost a percentage and dragged the index down.
  • Among major bourses, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.17%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.28% and 0.16%, respectively.
  • Germany, Sweden, and Belgium had a distribution day. The only countries to close in the green were the U.K., Norway, Italy, Portugal, and Spain.
  • All 17 indices that we cover continue to be in a Confirmed Uptrend, amid increasing distribution days.

European Weekly Summary

Key Points

  • The iShares DJ Stoxx 600 is in a Confirmed Uptrend since January 4 (follow-through day), with only one distribution day. The index is currently testing its 100-DMA and any break through this resistance would be another positive signal this short-term momentum will persist.
  • In this report, we detail our cautiously optimistic view on European markets and recommend gradually increasing exposure to the region as the market trades constructively above key supports. Our bottom-up approach leans toward defensive sectors Staples and Health Care, and indicates it is too early to jump aggressively on Cyclicals (Autos and Luxury stocks). The top picks from our Focus List include Davide Campari ( CPR.IT ), Diageo ( DGE.GB ). Carl Zeiss Meditec ( AFXX.DE ), and Vitrolife ( VITR.SE ).
  • In addition to our Focus List, we also list Stocks of Interest, which have solid O’Neil Ratings and Rankings and are trading near pivot. The list includes former European Focus List names, Redrow ( RDW.GB ), Wolters Kluver ( WSG.NL ), and Halma ( HLMA.GB ).
  • Lastly, we updated our list of shorts ideas after we removed Essity ( ESSI.BE ) and now look at new potential short candidates (pages six and seven).

WON Europe Today

Yesterday,

  • The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.25% higher. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 closed 1.58% and 0.95% higher, respectively, on higher volumes. Germany’s DAX closed 0.33% lower with lower volume.
  • The market benefited from hopes of a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and a dovish U.S. Fed, that indicated it will be more cautious in its approach to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
  • The top performer in the Stoxx 600 was China-sensitive Basic Resources, which was up 1.29%. Consumer Goods also gained 1.16%, on the back of upbeat earnings from LVMH.
  • Most country bourses, except Germany, Finland, Norway, and Spain, ended in positive territory.

WON Europe Today

On Tuesday, European markets ended strongly, supported by positive earnings posted by companies from the Technology and Basic Materials sectors.

  • The Stoxx 600 was up 0.81%, quickly recovering from the minor setback on Monday. The index continues to progress steadily above the 50-DMA.
  • Among key markets, Germany’s DAX was flat (+0.08%) and France’s CAC 40 increased 0.81%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 1.29%, prompted by a significant performance from tobacco stocks British American Tobacco (BATS.GB; BATS:LN) and Imperial Brands (IMB.GB; IMB:LN).

European Weekly Summary

Key Points

I – Failing follow-though day? Europe downgraded to Uptrend Under Pressure

The clustering of distribution days that occurred across the region indicates that the November 7 follow-through day is failing. As a result, yesterday, along with many European markets, the Stoxx 600 was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure after recording a third distribution day. The index will be downgraded to a Downtrend should it cut below its October 26 low.

Along with the rising number of distribution days across markets, we are not seeing any leaders emerging in the form of breakouts. There are very few places to hide currently.

II – Implementing a defensive approach

We reiterate our cautious stance and advise raising cash if possible or focusing on stocks that offer fundamental defensive profiles. Among other indicators, look at the stock’s O’Neil stability factor, dividend yield, and RS line.

In this report, we provide a list of stocks with these characteristics (see page 3): RS line at a new high, dividend yield greater than 2%, and stability factor less than 30, which guarantees constant earnings growth. These stocks are likely to continue outperforming the general market on a relative basis.

III – Focus: Staples & Healthcare

It is not surprising that the list is dominated by Staples ( e.g. ULVR.GBDGE.GB ) and large Healthcare Caps ( ROG.CHAZN.CH  ), given their defensive profile and cash flow, which supports strong shareholder return.

From this group, AztraZeneca ( AZN.GB ) was recently added to our European Focus List. We recommend building a position in this name.

In Staples, we reiterate our bullish call on Davide Campari ( CPR.IT ), recently added to the EFL.