The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to consolidate constructively below resistance along their respective 200-DMA. Distribution remains at two days on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq. All 11 O’Neil sectors remain above their respective 50-DMA. Leadership remains healthy, with new ideas across multiple industry groups making new highs each session. We remain positive on the general market.
Symbol: YETI
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating constructively below resistance along their respective 200-DMA. Distribution stands at two days on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq. Five sectors have rallied more than 10% since the January 4 follow-through day with all 11 trading above their respective 50-DMA. Leadership continues to act well with multiple breakouts occurring each week. To remain constructive, we would like to see the major averages avoid a clustering of distribution and for leadership to continue to broaden. We maintain our positive view on the general market.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined ~1% on volume greater than the prior day as each index picked up a distribution day in the process. Despite the sell-off, the majority of leading stocks pulled back in constructive fashion. To maintain a positive outlook, indices need to avoid a clustering of distribution days. Currently, the distribution day count remains low with only two days on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back off on below average volume and thus avoided a distribution day. Indices continue to face resistance along the 200-DMA, however, price action remains constructive.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher on below average volume and are sitting just below resistance at the 200-DMA (S&P 500: 2,741 (+0.1%); Nasdaq: 7,454 (+0.7%)). A low volume consolidation along the 200-DMA would be viewed as constructive as we would prefer to avoid any high-volume pullbacks off the 200-DMA.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed above their respective 100-DMA, and the next level of resistance is the 200-DMA (S&P 500: 2,741 (+0.9%); Nasdaq: 7,453 (+1.7%)). There remains little to no distribution and leading ideas continue to act well. We maintain our positive view on the general market.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied strongly last week and are now sitting just below their respective 100-DMA (S&P 500: 2,710 (+0.2%); Nasdaq: 7,281 (+0.2%)). We expect consolidation around current levels given the sharp rally into this next level of moving-average resistance. Look for the major averages to avoid any clustering of distribution and for leading ideas to remain technically intact. The rising 21-DMA may serve as support should a pullback occur. The next level of resistance above the 100-DMA is the 200-DMA (S&P 500: 2,741 (+1.3%); Nasdaq: 7,453 (+2.5%)). We continue to recommend buying quality high-relative-strength ideas as they emerge from consolidation.
Market View
O’Neil Market Strategy: S&P 500 earnings are decelerating, but the S&P’s P/E ratio has also fallen significantly
given rising 10-year yields. Considering the Fed’s pause, if yields continue to come off highs, P/E ratios could
see moderate expansion once again.
A 6% gain since the January 4 follow-through day on the S&P 500 lines up with the average of second follow-
through days that have led to extended bull markets in the past. The S&P 500’s 7% gain in January was only the
fifth time since 1970 when a 7% monthly loss was followed by a 7% monthly gain.
The four (1974, 1987, 2002, 2009) other instances ended prior bear markets, and one (2011) ended a large
market correction. Historically, once this precedent is established, forward gains are well above average for the
next six months. An S&P 500 gain of >5% in January (nine prior instances since 1970) similarly leads to a well
above average for the next six months.
Technical setups are much improved, with all indices and sectors above their respective 50-DMA. Tests of the
200-DMA are looming for sectors, and a majority remain more than 10% off highs.
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied strongly this week and are now
sitting just below their respective 100-DMAs. We expect consolidation around current levels due to the sharp
rally into this next level of moving-average resistance. Look for major averages to avoid any clustering of
distribution and for leading ideas to remain technically intact.
Sectors: Since the follow-through day, six sectors have rallied more than 10%, with Transportation, Consumer
Cyclical, and Technology each rallying more than 13%. Though defensive sectors have lagged, Utility and
Consumer Staple have still rallied over 5% since the follow-through day.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied up to their respective 100-DMA (S&P 500: 2,712 (+0.3%); Nasdaq: 7,288 (+0.1%)), which is now serving as near-term resistance. Should the indices clear above this level, the 200-DMA will be the next level of major resistance.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq cleared above resistance at January 18 highs. The next major level of resistance is the 200-DMA (S&P 500: 2,741 (+2.2%); Nasdaq: 7,452 (+3.6%)). Distribution remains at just one day on the S&P 500 and zero on the Nasdaq.
