Tag: Confirmed Uptrend

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The Nasdaq staged a day five follow-through on Thursday, gaining 2.7% in
higher day/day volume. The index regained both its 10-DMA (11,687) and 21-DMA (11,925) which will now act as nearterm downside support. The rolling 50-DMA (12,920) is now the next level of logical resistance. The S&P 500 rallied in
lower volume, but also regained its 10-DMA (4,024) and 21-DMA (4,066), with the 50-DMA (4,277) now also the next level
of resistance.

Eight of 11 sectors gained 5% or more this week, led by Energy, Retail and Consumer Cyclical, which gained 7-8%.
Energy continues to push further into highs and is now trading ~30% above its 200-DMA which is the biggest extension
since June 2021. Technology gained ~6%, clearing above its 10- and 21-DMA with the 50-DMA now trading ~6% above
current levels. Energy and Utility are still the only sectors trading above both the 50- and 200-DMA. The best performing
industry groups this week included Consumer Electronics, Department Stores, Discount Retail, Specialty Retail, Lodging,
Oil & Gas, Solar, Semiconductors and Banks. The worst performing groups included TV Media, Biotech, Pharma,
Outpatient Care, Generic Drugs, Agriculture, Mining, Staffing, Water Utilities, and Internet.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The Nasdaq staged a day five follow-through on Thursday, gaining 2.7% in
higher day/day volume. The index regained both its 10-DMA (11,687) and 21-DMA (11,925) which will now act as nearterm downside support. The rolling 50-DMA (12,920) is now the next level of logical resistance. The S&P 500 rallied in
lower volume, but also regained its 10-DMA (4,024) and 21-DMA (4,066), with the 50-DMA (4,277) now also the next level
of resistance.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 pulled back towards its 50-DMA (4,427) before finding support to close off weekly lows. The index is now trading 7% off highs with three distribution days in the last seven sessions. The Nasdaq reversed from 200-DMA resistance, closing down over 3% and narrowly below its 50-DMA. This index is trading 15% off highs with two distribution days in the last four sessions. We will shift the market status to Uptrend Under Pressure should the S&P 500 also close below its 50-DMA.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices pulled back over the last few sessions after accelerating higher earlier in the week. The S&P 500 is testing its 10-DMA (4,519) followed by the next level of support at its 200-DMA (4,485). The Nasdaq is also slightly above 10-DMA (14,137) support but remains below 200-DMA resistance despite the advance over the last few weeks. The distribution day count stands at one on the S&P 500 and none on the Nasdaq.

Defensive sectors – Utility, Consumer Staples and Health Care – along with Consumer Cyclical, led by Autos Manufacturers, outperformed this week after rising 1-3% respectively. Conversely, three sectors declined more than 1% led lower by Transportation (-4%), and Energy (-2%). Multiple sectors continue to trade below 200-DMA resistance including Financial, Technology, Retail , Consumer Cyclical and Health Care. The best performing industry groups over the past week include Consumer Electronics, Autos, Airlines, Travel Booking, Utilities, Outpatient Care, Medical Products, Medical Software, Desktop Software, Pollution Control, and REITs. The worst performing groups include Wholesale Autos, Drug Stores, Trucks, Mobile Homes, Home Builders, Building Products, Household Appliances, Toys, Commercial Loans, and Banks. 62% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-DMA and 51% are trading above their 200-DMA, compared with 60% and 51%, respectively, a week ago. 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50- DMA, compared with 59% one week ago.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to push higher post last week’s follow-through, remaining above 50-DMA support with no distribution. Both indices now face resistance at February highs (S&P 500: 4,595; Nasdaq: 14,509) with the Nasdaq also still below its 200-DMA (14,723).

Leading sectors led this week with Energy and Basic Material jumping another 4-7%, while Financial, Health Care, and Retail lagged, trading flat to down 1%. Technology gained another 2% and now faces resistance at its 200-DMA. All in all, breadth continues to improve with all sectors outside Consumer trading above the 50-DMA. The best performing industry groups this week included Steel, Agriculture, Oil & Gas, Metal Ores, Miners, Aerospace/Defense, Autos, Ships, Insurance, and Semiconductors. The worst performing groups included Mobile Homes, Leisure, Building Products, Home Builders, Furniture, Auto Parts, Apparel, and Medical Equipment. 60% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-DMA and 51% are trading above their 200-DMA, compared with 54% and 49%, respectively, a week ago. 59% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, compared with 50% one week ago.

We recommend increasing risk in high quality high relative strength ideas as they build the right side of bases or emerge
from consolidation. Indices have held moving average support during intraday pullbacks, avoiding instant distribution, and
eventually progressing above multiple moving averages. Breadth has improved sharply over two weeks with the number
of actionable ideas steadily increasing. This action warrants a further increase in risk. We will now be looking for indices
to break and hold above February highs and for key moving averages to continue to hold during pullbacks to remain
constructive.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is now in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 staged a day 15 follow-through Wednesday, and the
Nasdaq staged a day 4 follow-through Friday. The S&P 500 rallied above 10- 21- and 50-DMA resistance which will all
now act as near-term support going forward. The next level of resistance is the 200-DMA (4,470). The Nasdaq closed
narrowly above its 50-DMA Friday after rallying over 8% on the week. Should a pullback occur, look for the index to hold
support at the now rising 21-DMA (13,421).

Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Retail and Health Care led, jumping 7-10%, while Utility and Energy lagged closing flat to
down ~3% on the week. Seven of 11 O’Neil sectors are now trading above their respective 50-DMA, including Retail,
Transportation, Capital Equipment and Health Care which regained that level this week. Technology and Financial are
trading 1-2% below their 50-DMA. The best performing industry groups this week included Semiconductors, Computer
Networking, Leisure, Discount Retail, Pharma, Managed Care, Trucks, and Construction. The worst performing groups
included Generic Drugs, Drug Stores, Banks, Reits, Media, Aggregates, and Food. 54% of S&P 500 stocks are now
trading above their 50-DMA and 49% are trading above their 200-DMA, compared with just 26% and 36%, respectively, a
week ago. 50% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, compared with only 18% one week ago.

We recommend a gradual approach to increasing risk, buying non-extended high quality high relative strength ideas
trading above their respective 50-DMA. Increase risk should indices hold near-term moving average support on pullbacks
and eventually progress above logical levels of resistance. Avoid or reduce risk in lagging ideas with poor volume trends
that have been unable to keep up with the market advance.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The market status will shift to Uptrend Under Pressure should either index close below the follow-through day lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767). Thus far, there are multiple indications that this rally may fail, given there has been no progress above key moving-average resistance and multiple distribution days occurring within just two weeks of the follow-though. Distribution now stands at two and three, respectively.

Market View

Posted on by Raj Gupta

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a day six follow-through on Monday, jumping 1.9% and 3.4%,
respectively, in higher day/day volume. Despite a volatile week, each index closed above Monday’s lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767) with
no distribution, keeping the follow-through day intact. The S&P 500 now faces resistance at its declining 50-DMA (4,619), while the Nasdaq is
still trading 13% off highs and below 200-DMA resistance (14,735).

US Focus

Posted on by Midhun Parameswaran

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a day six followthrough on Monday, jumping 1.9% and 3.4%, respectively, in higher day/day volume. Despite a volatile week, each index closed above Monday’s lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767) with no distribution, keeping the follow-through day intact. The S&P 500 now faces resistance at its declining 50-DMA (4,619), while the Nasdaq is still trading 13% off highs and below 200-DMA resistance (14,735).